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Check out my Curlin Stakes analysis at Saratoga for Friday (7-21-23) below.

SAR 4 (Curlin, 9f)
Secondary – #4 Scotland
Wagers: Exacta 3-4

Comments: There is a good chance of thunderstorms on Friday at the Spa so we will have to see how the potential adverse weather affects the main track and turf course. #3 Blazing Sevens (4-5) is the class of the field. Last year’s Champagne (G1) hero threw in a clunker in his Fountain of Youth (G2) return March 4. He added blinkers and finished a solid third in the April 8 Blue Grass (G1), and stalked wide and missed by a head in the Preakness (G1) last time. He ran a winning race in the second jewel of the Triple Crown but could not quite overcome National Treasure’s easy trip up front. Chad Brown’s Good Magic colt will probably stalk slow fractions under his winning pilot Prat. He is the only entrant with decent wet track form. He was third in the Hopeful (G1) and first in the Champagne, and those two races were in the slop. #4 Scotland (2-1) was right there at the wire in all three starts. He went last-to-first in a head victory in his seven panel bow March 4. He stalked, led, and missed by a nose at seven panels April 23, and closed late to score by a head in a one-turn mile June 3. Alvarado is 2-for-2 with him and he will probably be formerly placed in a race lacking front end speed. #2 Lost Ark (4-1) will probably attend the pace under Ortiz Jr. He dueled and kicked away in his dirt sprint bow last summer, and stretched out second time out and aired in the Sapling. He was up the track in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and eased and walked off in the BC Juvenile. He disappeared for 7+ months and returned with an easy victory as the 1-2 chalk June 9. #1 Perform (8-1) turned the corner over a route of ground on March 11 and April 15. That win in April was in the Tesio Stakes at Laurel, and it was a visually impressive triumph from off the pace. He was supplemented to the Preakness (G1) May 20 but got no pace help and never got seriously involved. He probably won’t get much pace help in this spot either. #5 Il Miracolo (12-1) is 0-for-6 in the stakes ranks and he was not competitive in any of those races. He looks overmatched. ​

​​Analysis by Jarrod Horak

Jarrod Horak

Jarrod Horak posts stakes recaps from Del Mar and Santa Anita Park, along with full card recaps and free stakes picks from Southern and/or Northern California.