The road to Kentucky Oaks 2025 is in full swing. Nine Oaks points races have been run so far and I recapped all of those races below. Go to the bottom of this post to see my top five Oaks contenders along with my Oaks historical trends video.
Kentucky Oaks 2025 Points Race Recaps
Grade 3 Pocahontas at Churchill Downs (9-14-24): This flat mile event around one turn was the first Kentucky Oaks 2025 points race. The pace was fast and La Cara rallied from 11th of 14 to win by 3/4ths of a length over Liam in the Dust. The latter tracked the pace from post 14, got the first run and opened up by 2 lengths after six panels, and just held the place. Incona Mama stalked the pace and was best of the rest in 3rd. Ricardo Santana Jr. rode the winner for Mark Casse. Fractions: 22.70, 46.33, 1:11.73, 1:24.67, 1:37.82.
Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland (10-4-24): Immersive was the favorite and she tracked Rich City Girl and Liam in the Dust, and got first run and edged clear by a length and a quarter. Quickick rallied from last of 7 to finish a clear second, and Quietside was best of the rest in third. Manny Franco rode the winner for Brad Cox. Fractions: 23.01, 46.89, 1:11.26, 1:37.50, 1:44.64.
Grade 1 Frizette at Aqueduct (10-5-24): Three horses scratched including strong morning line favorite Senza Parole. That left a 7-horse field and second time starter Scottish Lassie stalked from third dominated by 9 lengths for Jose Lezcano and Jorge Abreu. She emphatically graduated in this event and maiden Snowyte rallied to finish a clear second. The others finished far back. Fractions: 22.81, 46.20, 1:11.73, 1:24.14, 1:36.73.
Grade 2 Oak Leaf at Santa Anita (10-5-24): Nooni stretched out and set the pace for Bob Baffert, and her favored stablemate Non Compliant stalked the pace and edged away to win by 2 1/4 lengths under Juan Hernandez. Nooni ended up 8 1/4 lengths in front of Tenma (also trained by Baffert). In the Air Tonight, Showers, and Om N Joy also ran. This Kentucky Oaks 2025 points race was also a win and you’re in for the BC Juvenile Fillies. Fractions: 23.42, 47.22, 1:11.65, 1:38.00, 1:45.08.
Rags to Riches at Churchill Downs (10-27-24): Good Cheer cruised to sharp wins on Aug. 5 and Sept. 28, and she made short work of this field. She stalked the pace, took over in the lane, and won by 4 3/4 lengths for Luis Saez and Brad Cox. Claire’s Charm set the pace and was clearly second best, and the other three runners were no match for the top two finishers. Fractions: 23.88, 48.06, 1:12.63, 1:37.54, 1:44.00.
Grade 1 BC Juvenile Fillies at Del Mar (11-1-24): Nooni set a very fast pace under Flavien Prat. Bob Baffert’s fleet filly has distance limitations and could not keep going. American Bikini (JPN) chased and faded, and Scottish Lassie stalked wide from the outside post, made a bid, and weakened. Vodka With a Twist chased from the rail and looked good turning for home, but post time favorite Immersive sat a beautiful midpack trip under Manny Franco, and the Nyquist filly swung into action turning for home and ran on by to win by 4 1/2 lengths. Vodka With a Twist was second best and Quickick broke slow, found her best stride late, and ran on to complete the trifecta. Scottish Lassie was miles clear of the rest in fourth. La Cara, Nooni, Otomena Shacho, Snowyte, and American Bikini also ran. Brad Cox saddled the winner and he has a good overall BC record, and the Godolphin filly ends the year as the clear leader of the division with Grade 1 wins in the Spinaway, Alcibiades, and BC Juvenile Fillies. This was a Kentucky Oaks 2025 points race and Immersive has racked up 40 Oaks points. Fractions: 22.00, 44.99, 1:10.03, 1:37.61, 1:44.36.
Grade 2 Golden Rod at Churchill Downs (11-30-24): Good Cheer won all four starts and stepped up in class each time (MSW, Alw-1x, listed Rags to Riches, G2 Golden Rod). She was less than even money and she stalked outside and won by 2 1/2 lengths. Quietside stalked outside and was clearly second best, and Good Cheer’s stablemate Eclatant pressed from the inside post, led, and weakened in the lane and just held the show. Luis Saez rode the winner for Brad Cox. Fractions: 24.31, 48.66, 1:12.55, 1:36.86, 1:43.26.
Grade 2 Demoiselle at Aqueduct (12-7-24): Muhimma seized control early from the inside post by a half-length and that was the key to her success. Liam in the Dust applied some mild pressure and 96-1 outsider Tip Line chased from third. Muhimma opened up by a length and a half after six panels and stayed clear in the lane. Surface switcher Ballerina d’Oro (blinkers on) was last early from post 10, and she made a nice inside closing move, tipped out, and came after the favorite. Muhimma still had something left and won by a length, and Ballerina d’Oro finished 6 3/4 lengths in front of show finisher Liam in the Dust. Florent Geroux rode the winner for Brad Cox. Fractions: 23.94, 48.24, 1:12.55, 1:37.41, 1:49.84. Poster completed his 1 1/8 miles Remsen (G2) journey in 1:50.37 and this race was faster.
Grade 2 Starlet Stakes at Los Alamitos (12-7-24): This was a 2-horse race from the outset. Look Forward dueled inside and Tenma battled outside, and those two traded the lead a few times. They came down the stretch as a team and Tenma dug in late and edged clear late to win by 1 3/4 lengths. Look Forward was stretching out in distance following a debut sprint win, and she ran a quality race in defeat and was 9 lengths clear of beaten favorite Vodka With a Twist. Mawu, Nooni, Practical Dream, and Aunt Mo also ran. Juan Hernandez rode the winner for Bob Baffert (8 straight Starlet wins). Fractions: 23.41, 48.25, 1:13.56, 1:37.81, 1:44.16.
Kentucky Oaks 2025 Points Race Results
Pocahontas (10-5-3-2-1) – Sep. 16 – Winner: La Cara ($12.72)
Alcibiades (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 6 – Winner: Immersive ($5.34)
Frizette (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 7 – Winner: Scottish Lassie ($15.00)
Oak Leaf (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 7 – Winner: Non Compliant ($4.00)
Rags to Riches (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 29 – Winner: Good Cheer ($3.48)
BC Juvenile Fillies (30-15-9-6-3) – Nov. 3 – Winner: Immersive ($6.00)
Golden Rod (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 30 – Winner: Good Cheer ($3.32)
Demoiselle (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 7 – Winner: Muhimma ($2.80)
Starlet (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 7 – Winner: Tenma ($7.00)
Upcoming Races:
Untapable (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 21
Sant Ynez (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 5
Busanda (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 11
Silverbulletday (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 18
Martha Washington (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 25
Forward Gal (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1
Las Virgenes (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 2
Suncoast (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 8
Rachel Alexandra (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 15
Sunland Park Oaks (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 16
Cincinnati Trophy (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 21
UAE Oaks (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 21
Honeybee (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 22
Busher (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1
Davona Dale (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1
Santa Ysabel (50-25-15-10-5) – March 2
Virginia Oaks (50-25-15-10-5) – March 15
Bourbonette Oaks (50-25-15-10-5) – March 22
FG Oaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 22
Fantasy (100-50-25-15-10) – March 29
GP Oaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 29
Ashland (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
Gazelle (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
SA Oaks (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
Top 20 Kentucky Oaks 2025 Points Leaders (thru 12-8-24)
Immersive (40 points)
Good Cheer (20 points)
Vodka With a Twist (18 points)
Scottish Lassie (16 points)
Quickick (14 points)
La Cara, Tenma (13 points)
Muhimma, Non Compliant (10 points)
Liam in the Dust, Quietside (8 points)
Nooni (6 points)
Ballerina d’Oro, Claire’s Charm, Look Forward, Snowyte (5 points)
Icona Mama, Sherbini (4 points)
Eclatant, Social Fortress (3 points)
Jarrod Horak’s Fabulous Five Kentucky Oaks 2025 Contenders (12-8-24)
#1 – Immersive (Nyquist – Gap Year, by Bernardini) – Trainer: Brad Cox
Comments: The unbeaten Godolphin filly will almost certainly be crowned 2-year-old champ after three straight G1 wins (Spinaway, Alcibiades, BC Juvenile Fillies). She continues to get faster and owns a classy pedigree.
#2 – Muhimma (Munnings – Princess Carolina, by Tapit) – Trainer: Brad Cox
Comments: Speed is her biggest weapon and she took full advantage of her inside draw in a smart wire-to-wire victory in the Demoiselle (G2) at Aqueduct Dec. 7. That was her first route test and she passed it with flying colors. Her future appears bright and her early tendencies should give her every chance to succeed in upcoming stakes starts.
#3 – Quickick (McKinzie – Graeme Six, by Graeme Hall) – Trainer: Tom Amoss
Comments: She added blinkers and looked good graduating in an extended sprint second time out. Immersive had her number in the G1 Alcibiades (2nd) and G1 BC Juvenile Fillies (3rd). Tom Amoss won the Ky Oaks in 2019 with Serengeti Empress and that one wintered at FG. This filly will also spend the winter in New Orleans.
#4 – Good Cheer (Medaglia d’Oro – Wedding Toast, by Street Sense) – Trainer: Brad Cox
Comments: Brad Cox has an embarrassment of riches on the road to the Oaks. His top three contenders have a combined record of 11-for-11 and they have teamed up to win five graded races this year. This one is unbeaten and untested after four starts, and she won back-to-back points races at Churchill on Oct. 27 (Rags to Riches) and Nov. 30 (G2 Golden Rod). She can stalk or close and packs a nice finishing kick.
#5 – Ballerina d’Oro (Medaglia d’Oro – In the Moonlight, by Tapit) – Trainer: Chad Brown
Comments: She added blinkers, switched to dirt, and made a nice run from off the pace to finish a clear second in the Demoiselle (G2). Chad Brown’s late striding filly can seemingly run all day and might make an impact in upcoming points races if she gets pace to chase.
Next Nine: (6) Non Compliant, (7) Tenma, (8) Senza Parole, (9) Quietside, (10) Scottish Lassie, (11) Look Forward, (12) Vodka With a Twist, (13) La Cara, (14) Claire’s Charm
