My top ranked Kentucky Derby 2026 contender Paladin made his much anticipated return in the Grade 2 Risen Star at the Fair Grounds on Saturday, Feb. 14, and he stalked the pace and wore down Chip Honcho in a quality effort. In this report, I will recap the Risen Star and Sunland Park Derby, update the points standings, and share my exceptional eleven Derby contenders.
I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my Runaway Horse video channel, and through 21 points races, my top choices have 8 wins, 3 runner-up finishes, and 2 show finishes. The next Derby points race is the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park on Feb. 21.
Mesquite and Thunderously are both off the Derby trail. The former, trained by Cherie DeVaux, finished second in the Lecomte (G3) in January. He has a soft tissue injury and will be evaluated this week. The latter, a Bill Mott runner, easily won his dirt route debut at Gulfstream on Jan. 10 (88 BSF). He has an undisclosed injury and will be sidelined indefinitely.
Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Recaps
Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds (2-14-26): Chip Honcho (blinkers off) made the running and almost went all the way. Race favorite Paladin ($3.40) stalked from fourth and moved up to challenge Chip Honcho with three furlongs to go, and he gradually wore that one down to prevail by a half-length (93 BSF). Chip Honcho fought hard throughout and was clearly second best in a fine effort. Golden Tempo rallied from the back of the pack to secure the show and Universe was an even fourth. Carson Street (5th), Courting (6th), Quality Mischief (7th), and Colt Forty Seven (8th) also ran. Tyler Gaffalione rode the winner for Chad Brown. Paladin’s regular rider Flavien Prat was in Saudi Arabia on Saturday and he guided Nysos to a runner-up finish in the $20 million Saudi Cup. The Fair Grounds main track played to forwardly placed runners on Saturday and Gaffalione kept Paladin within striking range throughout. Fractions: 23.81, 47.49, 1:11.53, 1:36.37, 1:49.14.
Sunland Park Derby at Sunland Park (2-15-26): Sharons Beach and Way Beyond scratched and both figured to impact the pace. That development altered the race shape dramatically and Express Kid took all of the money and broke on top from the inside post. Pavlovian (blinkers back on) chased from second and this was a match race from the start. The two pace players battled hard throughout and Pavlovian ($12.20) got his nose down on the wire in a thrilling finish (87 BSF). Express Kid was the unlucky loser and he ended up 5+ lengths in front of show finisher Bricklin. The latter chased from third and safely held that spot over closer Daneyko. Forty Twenty (5th) and Buntus Foclora (eased, walked off) also ran. Edwin Maldonado rode the winner for Doug O’Neill.
Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Results
Iroquois (10-5-3-2-1) – Sept. 13 – Winner: Spice Runner ($12.38)
Champagne (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Napoleon Solo ($15.94)
American Pharoah (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Intrepido ($19.60)
Breeders’ Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Ted Noffey ($3.84)
Street Sense (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 26 – Winner: Incredibolt ($10.18)
BC Juvenile (30-15-9-6-3) – Oct. 31 – Winner: Ted Noffey ($3.60)
Ky Jockey Club (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 29 – Winner: Further Ado ($3.40)
Remsen (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 6 – Winner: Paladin ($5.76)
Los Al Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 13 – Winner: Litmus Test ($3.20)
Gun Runner (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 20 – Winner: Chip Honcho ($9.80)
Springboard Mile (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 20 – Winner: Express Kid ($71.00)
Jerome (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 3 – Winner: My World ($7.24)
Smarty Jones (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 3 – Winner: Strategic Risk ($7.00)
Lecomte (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 17 – Winner: Golden Tempo ($7.40)
Holy Bull (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 31 – Winner: Nearly ($5.40)
Southwest (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 6 – Winner: Silent Tactic ($26.00)
Withers (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 6 – Winner: Talk to Me Jimmy ($26.54)
Robert Lewis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 7 – Winner: Plutarch ($10.20)
Sam F. Davis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 7 – Winner: Renegade ($4.40)
Risen Star (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 14 – Winner: Paladin ($3.40)
Sunland Derby (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 15 – Winner: Pavlovian ($12.20)
John Battaglia Memorial (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 21
Fountain of Youth (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 28
Gotham (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 28
Rebel (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1
Tampa Bay Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 7
San Felipe (50-25-15-10-5) – March 7
Virginia Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 14
Jeff Ruby Steaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 21
Louisiana Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 21
Arkansas Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
Florida Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
UAE Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
Blue Grass (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
SA Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
Wood Memorial (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
Lexington (20-10-6-4-2) – April 11
Top 20 Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Leaders (thru 2-17-26)
Paladin (60 points)
Chip Honcho (39 points)
Golden Tempo (35 points)
Silent Tactic (25 points)
Renegade (25 points)
Intrepido (23 points)
Universe (23 points)
Plutarch (23 points)
Pavlovian (20 points)
Express Kid (20 points)
Nearly (20 points)
Talk to Me Jimmy (20 points)
Litmus Test (19 points)
Soldier N Diplomat (13 points)
Grittiness (11 points)
Carson Street (11 points)
Napoleon Solo (10 points)
Further Ado (10 points)
Strategic Risk (10 points)
My World (10 points)
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2026 Contenders (2-17-26)
1 – PALADIN (Gun Runner – Secret Sigh, by Tapit) – Trainer: Chad Brown – Last Ranking (1)
Comments: He is now 3-for-3 after his half-length victory in the Grade 2 Risen Star on Feb. 14. That race was a mile and an eighth, and he also took the Remsen (G2) at nine panels late last year. He ran his final furlong in a field-best 12.43 seconds in the Risen Star and that bodes well for his chances at a mile and a quarter, and he has a nice BSF pattern (93-87-85). The Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland is his next assignment.
2 – RENEGADE (Into Mischief – Spice if Nice, by Curlin) – Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Last Ranking (2)
Comments: His stock rose following his winning return in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 7 (92 BSF). He finished in front of Paladin in a flat mile maiden race at Aqueduct last fall and had his number taken down, and Paladin beat him by 2 lengths in the Remsen in December. He is expected to make his next start in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn on March 28.
3 – LITMUS TEST (Nyquist – Study Hard, by Malibu Moon) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (3)
Comments: He made the grade when last seen in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) late last year. He has worked six times at Santa Anita this year including a half-mile move in 47.40 (4/78) on Feb. 14. The San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita on March 7 is his next scheduled race.
4 – NEARLY (Not This Time – IB Prospecting, by Mineshaft) – Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Last Ranking (5)
Comments: He easily won his last three starts at Gulfstream including the Holy Bull (G3) on Jan. 31 (98 BSF). He got back on the worktab with a half-mile breeze in 48.63 (5/26) at Palm Beach Downs on Feb. 13. He is skipping the Fountain of Youth (G2) and figures to go next in the Florida Derby (G1) on March 28.
5 – GOLDEN TEMPO (Curlin – Carrumba, by Bernardini) – Trainer: Cherie DeVaux – Last Ranking (4)
Comments: Won his first two starts including the Grade 3 Lecomte in January, and he rallied for the show when last seen in the Risen Star (G2) on Feb. 14. He was too far back early in the Risen Star and finished with interest. He ran his final quarter in field-best 24.65 and went his final furlong in 12.52. They are talking about adding blinkers to his equipment, and he will wear them in upcoming works. The LA Derby (G2) on March 21 is next, and Chip Honcho is targeting that race as well.
6 – FURTHER ADO (Gun Runner – Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (6)
Comments: He has worked four times at Payson Park in Florida since winning the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill last fall. He drilled a half-mile bullet in 49.00 (1/56) on Feb. 7, and he breezed 4f in 48.60 (4/90) on Feb. 14. His first target this year is the Tampa Bay Derby on March 7.
7 – NAPOLEON SOLO (Liam’s Map – Atomic Blonde, by Scat Daddy) – Trainer: Chad Summers – Last Ranking (7)
Comments: The Grade 1 Champagne hero returned to the worktab at Palm Meadows on Jan. 14 and has drilled four bullets this year. His last move was a 5f bullet in 1.01.45 (1/5) on Feb. 13. He will begin his 2026 campaign in the Fountain of Youth (Feb. 28), Gotham (Feb. 28), or Tampa Bay Derby (March 7). At this stage, it looks like the FOY is the spot.
8 – BLACKOUT TIME (Not This Time – Beauty Parlor, by Elusive Quality) – Trainer: Ken McPeek – Last Ranking (8)
Comments: Last year’s Breeders’ Futurity (G1) runner-up has breezed four times this year including a 5f bullet in 1:00.00 (1/18) at Oaklawn on Feb. 11. He is preparing for a start in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on March 1.
9 – BRANT (Gun Runner – Tynan, by Liam’s Map) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (9)
Comments: He won the Del Mar Futurity (G1) in 2025 and was last seen finishing third in the BC Juvenile (G1). He has worked four times at Santa Anita this year including a 6f move in 1:14.00 (2/2) on Feb. 13. He might start his sophomore campaign in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on March 1.
10 – COMMANDMENT (Into Mischief – Sippican Harbor, by Orb) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (10)
Comments: Mucho Macho Man Stakes hero has worked four times at Payson Park since that Jan. 3 race. He breezed 5f in 1:02.60 (5/9) on Feb. 13 and remains on target for the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 28.
11 – PLUTARCH (Into Mischief – Stellar Wind, by Curlin) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (11)
Comments: He finished in the top three in all six starts on turf (3 1-1-1) and dirt (3 1-1-1), and he smartly graduated at 1 1/8 miles on turf (November 2025). He returned to the main track, battled on the pace with Intrepido, and won the Robert Lewis (G3) by 3/4ths of a length at one mile on Feb. 7. He has not returned to the worktab since the Lewis and there is no word on his next start. The San Felipe (G2) on March 7 is the next Kentucky Derby prep at Santa Anita, followed by the SA Derby (G1) on April 4.
Next Nine: (12) Silent Tactic, (13) Intrepido, (14) So Happy, (15) Pyromancer, (16) Bravaro, (17) Canaletto, (18) Potente, (19) Iron Honor, (20) Englishman
