Check out my Wednesday (5-1-24) Race 8 analysis at Churchill Downs below.
CD 8 (Isaac Murphy Marathon Overnight, 4up, 1 1/2 miles dirt)
Primary – #3 RED RUN, #6 Masqueparade
Secondary – #7 Next, #5 Classic Causeway
Horse Comments:
#3 Red Run (9-2) did all of the pace dirty work from post 11 in the Temperence Hill and ended up fourth. He reconnects with his winning rider Tyler Gaffalione and figures to be patiently handled this time. He rallied to miss by a neck at 12-1 odds in this race last year under Gafflione. Mike Maker’s 5-year-old Gun Runner horse should offer value.
#6 Masqueparade (6-1) stretched out to this distance in the Temperence Hill at Oaklawn on March 29, and he sat back and got up by a head at 19-1. That effort may have been legitimate. He won the Ohio Derby (G3) in 2021 and was third in the Jim Dandy (G2). He landed the place in the Alydar Stakes in 2022, and completed the trifecta in the Michael G. Schaefer Stakes in 2023. Rob Atras is his new trainer and this one is listed as a first time gelding. He might get pace to chase.
#7 Next (4-5) is a beast in these long distance dirt races. He won the 2022 Cape Henlopen (wet track) by 18 lengths and the Turnback the Alarm (G3) by 6 1/4 lengths. He started 2023 with a show finish in this race as the favorite, and won the Brooklyn (G2) by 2 1/4 lengths, the Birdstone by 11 lengths, and the Greenwood Cup (G3) by an amazing 25 lengths. He might need the race just like he did in 2023.
#5 Classic Causeway (5-1) carved out the fractions and just failed to last in the Temperence Hill, and he should be all over the pace.
Wagers:
#3 to win
Exacta box 3-6
Trifecta 3-6/3-5-6-7/3-5-6-7
Bettor Bet$ Free Pick Winners – April 2024
April 5 – De’ Medici/Feel the Magic Exacta ($55.40)
April 10 – Native Land/Heartened/Rocketeer Trifecta ($49.04)
April 14 – Tizzy in the Sky ($3.70) – Aqueduct Stakes Triple-Header
April 14 – Antonio of Venice/Doc Sullivan Exacta ($8.90) – Aqueduct Stakes Triple-Header
April 14 – Sunday Girl/My Shea D Lady/Sohana Trifecta ($37.40) – Aqueduct Stakes Triple-Header
April 15 – Palacein ($7.00), Trifecta ($63.60)
April 16 – Jackman/Connors Outlaw/C W Prize Trifecta ($85.20)
April 19 – Raging Sea ($7.58)
April 22 – Far Mo Power ($17.00), Trifecta ($317.80)
April 23 – Masrour/Neigh Dude Exacta ($6.80)
April 24 – Accede ($5.56), Exacta ($12.52)
April 25 – Bourbon Heist ($5.74)
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