Check out my Saturday (5-4-24) Race 6 analysis at Churchill Downs below.
CD 6 (G1 Derby City Distaff, 7f)
Primary – #10 VAHVA, #7 Alva Starr
Secondary – #1 Three Witches, #9 Red Carpet Ready
Horse Comments:
#10 Vahva (3-1) has plenty of advantages in this race. She figures to stalk the pace while out in the clear under Irad Ortiz Jr., and she is 2-for-2 at Churchill Downs and 3-for-5 with a pair of runner-up finishes at seven panels. She does not usually work fast so that bullet in 59.60 (1/39) at Keeneland on April 27 stands out. She rallied from the outside post and was getting to Alva Starr last time, and Ortiz Jr. got acquainted with her that day. I am expecting a forward move in her second start of the year. She won the Charles Town Oaks (G3) on a wet fast track.
#7 Alva Starr (5-2) always runs her early-pressing race (8 5-3-0). Last year, she wired the field in the Dashing Beauty and Prioress (G2), and was a close second in the Raven Run (G2). In 2024, she easily went all the way in the American Beauty and stalked and scored in the Madison (G1). The favorite is the one to beat under Tyler Gaffalione, and she is 2-for-2 on a wet track.
#1 Three Witches (8-1) is a seven panel specialist (6 3-2-1) and Flavien Prat is 5-for-8 with Michael McCarthy recently. Last year, she won the Princess Rooney (G3) and landed the show in the BC F&M Sprint (G1) for Saffie Joseph Jr. She moved to the McCarthy barn and won the Santa Monica (G2) as the favorite under Prat Feb. 3. She figures to stalk or close from the inside post.
#9 Red Carpet Ready (9-2) gets a more comfortable post in her rematch with 1-2 Madison finishers Alva Starr and Vahva. She dueled inside and weakened to third last time, and figures to stalk and pounce in this spot. She is 3-for-3 at Churchill and sports a pair of graded wins at seven panels (G3 Forward Gal, G2 Eight Belles). She romped by 10 lengths in her local debut in the slop in 2022.
Wagers:
#10 to win
Exacta 10/1-7
Exacta 1-7/10
Trifecta 7-10/1-7-9-10/1-7-9-10
Bettor Bet$ Free Pick Winners – April 2024
April 5 – De’ Medici/Feel the Magic Exacta ($55.40)
April 10 – Native Land/Heartened/Rocketeer Trifecta ($49.04)
April 14 – Tizzy in the Sky ($3.70) – Aqueduct Stakes Triple-Header
April 14 – Antonio of Venice/Doc Sullivan Exacta ($8.90) – Aqueduct Stakes Triple-Header
April 14 – Sunday Girl/My Shea D Lady/Sohana Trifecta ($37.40) – Aqueduct Stakes Triple-Header
April 15 – Palacein ($7.00), Trifecta ($63.60)
April 16 – Jackman/Connors Outlaw/C W Prize Trifecta ($85.20)
April 19 – Raging Sea ($7.58)
April 22 – Far Mo Power ($17.00), Trifecta ($317.80)
April 23 – Masrour/Neigh Dude Exacta ($6.80)
April 24 – Accede ($5.56), Exacta ($12.52)
April 25 – Bourbon Heist ($5.74)
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