Check out my Friday (11-1-24) Del Mar Race 4 analysis below.
DMR 4 (Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, 8T) – Post Time 4:25 PM ET
Primary – #5 SCIPIO, #6 Supa Speed
Secondary – #1 Sabertooth, #3 Cavallo Bay, #2 Smash It, #10 Chasing Lady
Horse Comments:
#5 Scipio (8-1) is a maiden with ability for Richard Baltas. He ran on for the show as my top choice behind Artislas in his local 5T bow Aug. 2, and he was third to that rival again as my price play top choice in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf (G3) Sept. 8. He took money both times and showed nice late interest, and he might move forward again under his new rider Flavien Prat. I will stick with him in this competitive stakes race.
#6 Supa Speed (6-1) is a $460k Justify filly taking on the boys. She chased from second and won her local 5T bow by 1 1/2 lengths and the runner-up was a next-out winner. She stretched out and rallied to finish a clear second in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf Sept. 7. Thought Process won that event and clicked right back in the G3 Surfer Girl, and show finisher Sea Runner graduated as the favorite in a flat mile MSW affair at SA Oct. 4. Juan Hernandez got to know her last time and he is 2-for-11 with John Sadler recently.
#1 Sabertooth (9-2) is still a maiden after four starts. He landed the place in back-to-back MSW turf routes at DMR over the summer, and rallied from last of 13 to finish a close second in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf (G3). He rallied to finish a close third in the Zuma Beach (G3) Oct. 6 and was placed second through disqualification. He should save ground before launching his rally.
#3 Cavallo Bay (15-1) won back-to-back 7f starts in GB earlier this year. He shipped to NY and was third in the G3 With Anticipation, and exits an even fourth in the G2 Bourbon. He reconnects with William Buick and Charles Appleby is a profitable 34% turf trainer.
#2 Smash It (12-1) probably would have won the Speakeasy if he had a clean start. He is 1-for-5 with four runner-up finishes in sprints, and he fits with these under his new rider Joel Rosario if he handles two turns.
#10 Chasing Lady (15-1) is bred for two turns and he might outrun his odds under Irad Ortiz Jr. He won his 5.5T bow at KEE and was placed first through disqualification in a 6.5T stakes as KD second time out. He rallied from 12th to miss the show by a neck in the Indian Summer at 5.5T last time.
Wagers:
#5 to win
Exacta box 5-6
Trifecta 5-6/1-3-5-6/1-2-3-5-6-10
October 2024 Bettor Bet$ Free Pick Winners
Oct. 1 – Beads ($10.20), Exacta ($28.00)
Oct. 3 – Donegal Momentum/Royal Majesty Exacta ($61.00)
Oct. 4 – Sea Runner ($3.60), Exacta ($9.40), Trifecta ($77.80)
Oct. 4 – SA (races 8-9) – $5 Late Daily Double ($47.00)
Oct. 6 – Iron Man Cal ($4.60)
Oct. 9 – Green Light ($3.42)
Oct. 10 – Major Dude ($6.74)
Oct. 13 – On the Whim ($8.00)
Oct. 17 – Peignoir ($6.02), Exacta ($16.34)
Oct. 21 – Bold Fortune ($4.90)
Oct. 23 – Neon Icon ($11.96), Trifecta ($427.64)
Oct. 27 – Watchtower/Medoro Exacta ($37.20)
Oct. 31 – King of Gosford ($5.00), Trifecta ($220.00)
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