The road to Kentucky Derby 2025 is in full swing and it is time to unveil my first “Exceptional 11” Kentucky Derby contenders list. Eight Derby points races have been run so far and I recapped each of those events below. Go to the bottom of this post to see my top Derby contenders along with my Derby historical trends video.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Race Recaps
Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs (9-14-24): Jonathan’s Way sped to the front as the favorite and was never in danger of losing this one. He kicked clear in the lane and scored by 2 3/4 lengths for Joel Rosario and Phil Bauer. Owen Almighty stalked the pace and was clearly second best, and Giocoso chased the pace and completed the trifecta. Mesero rallied from post 11 to finish fourth, and Sandman, Jack’s Time, Magnitude, Strummin, Authentic Strike, Firmus, and Politicallycorrect also ran. Fractions: 23.21, 46.62, 1:11.08, 1:23.38, 1;36.08.
Grade 1 Champagne at Aqueduct (10-5-24): Chancer McPatrick was the favorite from the outside post and he smartly went last-to-first and won by 2 3/4 lengths. Tip Top Thomas chased from second, led, and ended up a clear second, and Mo Plex was miles clear of the rest in third. Smoken Wicked, Vekoma Rides, J J Zo Zo, Executive Order, Colonel Bob, and Lethal Speed rounded out the order of finish. Flavien Prat guided home the winner for Chad Brown. Fractions: 22.47, 45.59, 1:11.28, 1:24.03, 1:36.51.
Grade 1 American Pharoah at Santa Anita (10-5-24): Citizen Bull scooted right to the front under Martin Garcia and was never headed. He turned away his stablemate Getaway Car and won by 2 lengths. My top choice Getaway Car chased the pace and the bet-down favorite and was clearly second best, and he was 5 3/4 lengths clear of show finisher McKinzie Street. Emerald Bay, Show of Force, Start Mo Up, and Mischief River completed the order of finish. Bob Baffert saddled the 1-2 finishers. This Kentucky Derby 2025 points race was also a win and you’re in for the BC Juvenile. Fractions: 23.85, 47.78, 1:12.43, 1:37.72, 1:44.30.
Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland (10-5-24): East Avenue got clear early from post 5. He was in front by a length for a half-mile, and he widened from there and crossed the line in front by 5 1/4 lengths. Ferocious stalked the pace and was clearly second best as the favorite, and Filoso rallied for the show at 29-1 odds. Dapper Moon chased from second and weakened to fourth, and Mesero, Tenacious Leader, Big Boat, Handsome Pants, Saratoga Cruiser, Ready for Peace, and Optical also ran. Tyler Gaffalione rode the sharp winner for Brendan Walsh. Fractions: 23.18, 46.76, 1:11.20, 1:36.57, 1:43.17.
Grade 3 Street Sense at Churchill Downs (10-27-24): The early runners were not around at the end. Sovereignty rallied from last and rolled to a strong victory by 5 lengths as the favorite, and this was his first career win. Tiztastic rallied for the place and Sandman was along for the show. Dapper Moon stalked, led, and weakened to fourth, and Bracket Buster, Forged Steel, Reach for the Rose, Comes a Time, and Baby Boat also ran. Junior Alvarado rode the promising winner for Bill Mott. Fractions: 23.57, 48.00, 1:12.52, 1:37.52, 1:43.86.
Grade 1 BC Juvenile at Del Mar (11-2-24): This was supposed to be East Avenue’s race but the fleet favorite stumbled badly out of the gate and the race shape was thrown into chaos. After that incident, Martin Garcia aboard Citizen Bull said thank you very much and took the early initiative. He wired the field in the Grade 1 American Pharoah in his start prior to this and he was loving life on the front end. The fractions were moderate and this race was over early. Citizen Bull stayed clear throughout, turned away a brief challenge from his stablemate Gaming, and won comfortably by a length and a half. Gaming, making his first route start, chased from second throughout under Irad Ortiz Jr. and was clearly second best. Overseas shipper Hill Road rallied from last of 10 under Umberto Rispoli to complete the trifecta. Getaway Car, Ferocious, Chancer McPatrick, Jonathan’s Way, Ecoro Azul, East Avenue, and Shin Believe also ran. Citizen Bull paid $33.80 and is likely to be named 2-year-old champion after wiring the field in back-to-back Grade 1 races at 1 1/16 miles. Fractions: 23.44, 47.89, 1:12.21, 1:36.53, 1:43.07.
Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs (11-30-24): Dapper Moon set the pace and First Resort chased from second, took over, and won by 2 1/4 lengths. Beaten favorite Jonathan’s Way stalked from midpack and ran on for the place, and inside stalker Tiztastic was a clear third. Dapper Moon weakened to fourth and was followed by Render Judgment, Filoso, Redacted, He’s Not Joking, and Sonic Skedaddle. Flavien Prat rode the winner for Eoin Harty and he was returning to dirt. Fractions: 24.56, 49.30, 1:13.63, 1:36.91, 1:43.01.
Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct (12-7-24): Surfside Moon scratched and that left a field of 6. Tux set the pace from the inside post and race favorite Keewaydin chased from second. Neither of those two won. Poster rallied from last under Flavien Prat and opened up a 2-length lead in the stretch. Aviator Gui stalked the pace and waited for running room, but Poster got the jump on him and held on by a nose. Surface switcher Aviator Gui just missed and was probably best. Tux was best of the rest in third, and Studlydoright, Keewaydin, and Gun Trader rounded out the order of finish. This did not seem like a strong race. The juvenile fillies ran faster at this trip in the Demoiselle (G2). Poster switched to dirt for the first time and ran his record to 3-for-3 for Eoin Harty and Godolphin. Fractions: 23.95, 48.59, 1:13.32, 1:37.77, 1:50.37.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Race Results
Iroquois (10-5-3-2-1) – Sept. 14 – Winner: Jonathan’s Way ($4.52)
Champagne (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – Winner: Chancer McPatrick ($3.10)
American Pharoah (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – Citizen Bull ($8.60)
Breeders’ Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – East Avenue ($7.56)
Street Sense (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 27 – Winner: Sovereignty ($4.86)
BC Juvenile (30-15-9-6-3) – Nov. 1 – Winner: Citizen Bull ($33.80)
Ky Jockey Club (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 30 – Winner: First Resort ($14.66)
Remsen (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 7 – Winner: Poster ($11.60)
Springboard Mile (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 13
Los Al Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 14
Gun Runner (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 21
Jerome (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 4
Smarty Jones (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 4
Lecomte (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 18
Southwest (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 25
Holy Bull (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1
Robert Lewis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1
Withers (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1
Sam F. Davis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 8
Risen Star (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 15
Sunland Derby (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 16
John Battaglia Memorial (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 22
Rebel (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 22
Fountain of Youth (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1
Gotham (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1
San Felipe (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1
Tampa Bay Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 8
Virginia Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 15
Jeff Ruby Steaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 22
Louisiana Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 22
Arkansas Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 29
Florida Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 29
Blue Grass (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
SA Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
UAE Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
Wood Memorial (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
Lexington (20-10-6-4-2) – April 12
Top 25 Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Leaders (thru 12-12-24)
Citizen Bull (40 points)
Gaming (15 points)
Jonathan’s Way (15 points)
Getaway Car (11 points)
Chancer McPatrick (10 points)
East Avenue (10 points)
First Resort (10 points)
Poster (10 points)
Sovereignty (10 points)
Hill Road (9 points)
Tiztastic (8 points)
Ferocious (8 points)
Dapper Moon (6 points)
Owen Almighty (5 points)
Tip Top Thomas (5 points)
Aviator Gui (5 points)
Sandman (4 points)
Mo Plex (3 points)
McKinzie Street (3 points)
Filoso (3 points)
Giocoso (3 points)
Mesero (3 points)
Tux (3 points)
Studlydoright (2 points)
Smoken Wicked (2 points)
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2025 Contenders (12-12-24)
1 – Sovereignty (Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini) – Trainer: Bill Mott
Comments: This one rallied wide from post 10 to finish an okay 4th of 10 in his 6f bow at SAR Aug. 24. He was 11-1 in his debut and stalked the pace and missed by a neck in a clear runner-up finish at 2-1 odds in a one-turn mile Sept. 27. I made him my top choice in the Street Sense (G3) Oct. 27 and he went last-to-first from the outside post and earned his diploma by 5 lengths as the favorite. He owns a strong route pedigree and should continue to progress.
2 – Patch Adams (Into Mischief – Well Humored, by Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Brad Cox
Comments: He was the strong favorite in his 6f bow at KEE Oct. 11 and he dueled through above par splits and finished a clear 3rd of 12. He was an even bigger favorite under the Twin Spires at seven panels Nov. 30 and he pressed outside, took over, and won under wraps by 10 1/2 lengths. The final time was a fast 1:20.77 and he garnered one of the top juvenile speed ratings. He is bred to handle a route of ground.
3 – East Avenue (Medaglia d’Oro – Dance Music, by Ghostzapper) – Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Comments: He controlled the pace and aired as the favorite in his 6f bow at Ellis Park. I made him my top choice in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) second time out and he carved out honest fractions and rolled to a smart victory by 5 1/4 lengths at 5-2 odds. He was my top choice again in the BC Juvenile (G1) but he lost his best chance after stumbling at the start from the inside post and ended up 9th of 10 as the beaten favorite. I will draw a line through his last and he remains an exciting prospect.
4 – Gaming (Game Winner – So Stylish, by Johannesburg) – Trainer: Bob Baffert
Comments: This $250k purchase is talented. He won his first two sprints at DMR including the G1 Del Mar Futurity. Baffert kept him out of the G1 American Pharoah and he ran well in a runner-up finish in his first route attempt in the G1 BC Juvenile. He chased his stablemate Citizen Bull in the latter race and he chased from 2nd and was clearly second best. He has worked four times since the BC including relatively fast 5f moves in 1:00.00 (2/37) at Santa Anita Dec. 2 and 59.60 (3/24) Dec. 9. The G2 Los Alamitos Futurity (Dec. 14) is his next engagement.
5 – Barnes (Into Mischief – All American Dream, by American Pharoah) – Trainer: Bob Baffert
Comments: The $3.2 million purchase overcame some things in his dirt sprint bow at Churchill. He was forced to chase from an inner post and was stuck inside turning for home. He was able to get off the rail and he moved out and came after Innovator, and he drifted out and got up by a head (top 2 finished 10 lengths in front of show). Innovator (6 0-4-0) returned to finish a clear 2nd as the beaten favorite in the Advent at OP Dec. 6. This one had a good education run in his career debut and acts like he wants more ground. He is back in California and worked 3f in 37.20 (12/18) at Santa Anita Dec. 8. We will learn more about him when he stretches out.
6 – Citizen Bull (Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Bob Baffert
Comments: He did enough to earn the 2-year-old title with back-to-back wire job wins at 1 1/16 miles in the G1 American Pharoah and G1 BC Juvenile. Baffert’s $675k purchase controlled the pace under Martin Garcia in his last pair. We will find out how good he really is when he is challenged early in upcoming stakes starts.
7 – Journalism (Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo) – Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Comments: His six panel bow was too short and he ran on for the show. The $825k purchase stretched out second time out and sat in midpack and ran past favorite Rank to graduate by 2 1/2 lengths Nov. 17. He has worked twice at Santa Anita since his maiden win and seems to have room to develop. The G2 Los Alamitos Futurity (Dec. 14) is his next start.
8 – Bullard (Gun Runner – Reve d’Amour, by Warrior’s Reward) – Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Comments: He was strong from off the pace in both sprint wins at Del Mar. He got plenty of pace help when going last-to-first and trouncing four foes in the G3 Bob Hope at seven panels Nov. 17. He still has to prove that he is more than a late running sprinter and should get his chance around two turns in upcoming Derby trail starts. He worked a half-mile in 47.80 (4/45) at Santa Anita Dec. 5.
9 – Admiral Dennis (Constitution – Gulf Coast, by Union Rags) – Trainer: Brad Cox
Comments: This $425k purchase was the favorite in his 6.5f bow at Churchill and he stalked the pace and was best of the rest in 3rd (Sept 19). He was an even bigger favorite at one mile under the Twin Spires second time out (Nov. 7) and he stalked from the outside post and drove home by 3 1/2 lengths. He has worked twice at Fair Grounds since his maiden win and he drilled a 5f bullet in 1:00.60 (1/50) Dec. 7.
10 – Hot Property (Medaglia d’Oro – Milwaukee Appeal, by Milwaukee Brew) – Trainer: Brad Cox
Comments: They let this one go at 4-1 odds in his 1 1/16 miles debut at Fair Grounds Nov. 24 and he controlled below par splits and kicked away in the stretch to graduate by 3 3/4 lengths. He earned a quality late pace rating in his slow early/fast late bow, and he breezed an easy half-mile at Fair Grounds Dec. 7. He figures to hop on the Derby trail in the near future.
11 – Romanesque (Practical Joke – Mony’slittlegracie, by Alphabet Soup) – Trainer: Bob Baffert
Comments: They paid $435k for this Practical Joke colt and he battled on the pace from the intimidating inside post in his 6 1/2 debut at Del Mar Nov. 23. He outmaneuvered his stablemate Rodriguez in the stretch and won by a comfortable 2 1/2 lengths, and it was 9 1/2 lengths back to the show finisher. He got back on the worktab Dec. 7 with a half-mile move in 48.40 (21/67) at Santa Anita. The San Vicente (G2) at seven panels on Jan. 4 is a possible target.
Next Nine: (12) Chancer McPatrick, (13) Getaway Car, (14) First Resort, (15) Jonathan’s Way, (16) Poster, (17) Madaket Road, (18) Rodriguez, (19) Tip Top Thomas, (20) Rank
