Check out my Saturday (3-8-25) Tampa Bay Downs Race 10 analysis below.
TAM 10 (G3 Florida Oaks, 8.5T) – Post Time 5:03 PM ET
Primary – #9 NITROGEN
Secondary – #10 Pretty Lavish, #7 Opulent Restraint, #6 Lush Lips
Horse Comments:
#9 Nitrogen (5-2) fired in all four turf routes. She missed by a neck as the favorite in her MSW debut, and set the pace and was a close third at 41-1 odds in the G1 Natalma second time out. She rallied to finish 3rd of 14 as a 49-1 longshot in the G1 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf in November. She was the favorite in the Ginger Brew at 8T Jan. 4 and she sat in midpack and rallied to win by a half-length. Jose Ortiz sticks with Mark Casse’s versatile filly and she is a logical top three contender.
#10 Pretty Lavish (6-1) beat 14 rivals in her turf route bow in Ireland last fall, and shipped to the US and got up late in a local OC-75k/1x turf route Feb. 8. She earned a quality late pace rating last time and Irad Ortiz, Jr. got acquainted with her.
#7 Opulent Restraint (3-1) stalked the pace and was 4th of 10 as the beaten favorite in her turf route bow at SAR last summer. She stalked and scored as the chalk second time out, and won the Chelsey Flower by the nose as the favorite when last seen in October. Flavien Prat got to know her last time and a stalking trip is expected.
#6 Lush Lips (4-1) moved to the Walsh barn and chased from second and rolled by 7 lengths in an all-weather MSW route in November (blinkers on). She returned to turf, controlled the pace, and won by 2 lengths as the favorite in an OC-75k/1x turf route as my top choice at GP Jan. 10. Brendan Walsh is a profitable 22% with the blinkers off move and her winning rider Tyler Gaffalione should have early-pressing options.
Wagers:
#9 to win
Exacta box 9-10
Trifecta key 9/6-7-10
Recent Bettor Bet$ Free Pick Winners
Feb. 15 – Hall of Fame ($5.40)
Feb. 16 – Scipio ($3.80)
Feb. 17 – Prime and Ready ($3.60), Exacta ($8.00), Trifecta ($43.60)
Feb. 19 – Avant Glory ($7.40), Exacta ($39.00)
Feb. 24 – G W’s Girl/Miss Martini/You’ll Be Back Trifecta ($18.60)
Feb. 26 – Soulmate ($18.80)
Feb. 28 – I’m a Bad Boy ($4.00), Exacta ($6.20)
March 3 – Managing Mischief ($4.20), Exacta ($7.20), Trifecta ($19.00)
March 7 – Check’s on the Way ($6.20), Exacta ($12.00), Trifecta ($30.00)
Please visit The Runaway Horse Shop to purchase my Santa Anita Park full cards.
