The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and Grade 1 Florida Derby were the two road to Kentucky Derby 2025 points race last weekend. Sandman rallied to win the former and Tappan Street beat race favorite Sovereignty in the latter. In this report, I will recap those races, update the Derby points standings, and share my latest exceptional 11 Derby contenders.
The Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, Grade 2 Wood Memorial, and Grade 1 Blue Grass are the next three Kentucky Derby points races.
SA Derby field (April 5): 1 – Journalism (6-5), 2 – Citizen Bull (9-5), 3 – Westwood (20-1), 4 – Barnes (3-1), 5 – Baeza (6-1).
Wood Memorial field (April 5): 1 – Rodriguez (5-2), 2 – Captain Cook (5-2), 3 – Tiger Twenty Four (30-1), 4 – My Mitole (20-1), 5 – Sand Devil (8-1), 6 – Hill Road (9-2), 7 – Grande (5-1), 8 – Passion Rules (12-1), 9 – Bear Claw Necklace (50-1), 10 – McAfee (20-1), 11 – Statesman (15-1), 12 – Omaha Omaha (30-1).
Blue Grass field (April 8): 1 – River Thames (5-2), 2 – Render Judgment (20-1), 3 – Burnham Square (9-2), 4 – Owen Almighty (3-1), 5 – East Avenue (3-1), 6 – Chancer McPatrick (7-2), 7 – Admiral Dennis (20-1).
Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Race Recaps
Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn (3-29-25): Pace makes the race and it sure did in this event. Stakes winner Speed King and race favorite Cornucopian got into a wicked duel and were far in front of the rest after a swift half-mile. They started to come back to the field and stalker Coal Battle emerged, and Sandman and Publisher were closing around the far turn and into the lane. Sandman made a wide move, struck the front, lugged out, and was clear at the end by 2 1/2 lengths. Maiden Publisher was clearly second best and Coal Battle ended up a length and a half in front of Cornucopian for show honors. Brereton’s Baytown, a weakening Speed King, Monet’s Magic, Bestfriend Rocket, and First Division rounded out the order of finish. Jose Ortiz rode the deserving winner for Mark Casse. Fractions: 22.46, 45.21, 1:10.37, 1:37.11, 1:50.08.
Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park (3-29-25): Madaket Road was fast early and opened up by 2 lengths, and Neoequos tracked from the inside post and 111-1 longshot Indecisiveness chased the pace. Tappan Street was helped by the outer draw and that allowed him to stalk in the clear from fourth. Neoequos turned up the heat on Madaket Road and Tappan Street was in a perfect spot to pounce, and he got the jump on race favorite Sovereignty and won by a length and a quarter. Sovereignty closed outside from post 10 and was slowly getting to the winner in a clear runner-up finish. Neoequos was best of the rest in third and Madaket Road was a clear fourth. Disruptor, Jimmy’s Dailys, Indecisiveness, Cool Intentions, Smoken Boy, and Enterdadragon also ran. Luis Saez rode the winner for Brad Cox. Fractions: 23.37, 47.22, 1:11.61, 1:36.59, 1:49.27.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Race Results
Iroquois (10-5-3-2-1) – Sept. 14 – Winner: Jonathan’s Way ($4.52)
Champagne (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – Winner: Chancer McPatrick ($3.10)
American Pharoah (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – Citizen Bull ($8.60)
Breeders’ Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – East Avenue ($7.56)
Street Sense (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 27 – Winner: Sovereignty ($4.86)
BC Juvenile (30-15-9-6-3) – Nov. 1 – Winner: Citizen Bull ($33.80)
Ky Jockey Club (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 30 – Winner: First Resort ($14.66)
Remsen (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 7 – Winner: Poster ($11.60)
Springboard Mile (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 13 – Winner: Coal Battle ($15.80)
Los Al Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 14 – Winner: Journalism ($7.60)
Gun Runner (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 21 – Winner: Built ($9.80)
Jerome (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 4 – Winner: Cyclone State ($8.10)
Smarty Jones (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 4 – Winner: Coal Battle ($11.00)
Lecomte (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 18 – Winner: Disco Time ($5.80)
Southwest (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 25 – Winner: Speed King ($30.60)
Holy Bull (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1 – Winner: Burnham Square ($10.60)
Robert Lewis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1 – Winner: Citizen Bull ($3.80)
Withers (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1 – Winner: Captain Cook ($4.90)
Sam F. Davis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 8 – Winner: John Hancock ($7.00)
Risen Star (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 15 – Winner: Magnitude ($88.40)
Sunland Derby (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 16 – Winner: Getaway Car ($4.40)
John Battaglia Memorial (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 22 – Winner: California Burrito ($9.42)
Rebel (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 23 – Winner: Coal Battle ($25.80)
Fountain of Youth (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1 – Winner: Sovereignty ($8.40)
Gotham (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1 – Winner: Flood Zone ($37.60)
San Felipe (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1 – Winner: Journalism ($8.20)
Tampa Bay Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 8 – Winner: Owen Almighty ($7.80)
Virginia Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 15 – Winner: American Promise ($16.80)
Jeff Ruby Steaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 22 – Winner: Final Gambit ($32.14)
Louisiana Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 22 – Winner: Tiztastic ($17.00)
Arkansas Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 29 – Winner: Sandman ($9.40)
Florida Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 29 – Winner: Tappan Street ($6.80)
Upcoming Derby Points Races Races:
SA Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
UAE Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
Wood Memorial (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
Blue Grass (100-50-25-15-10) – April 8
Lexington (20-10-6-4-2) – April 12
Top 30 Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Leaders (thru 4-4-25)
Sandman (129 points)
Tiztastic (119 points)
Tappan Street, Sovereignty (110 points)
Final Gambit (100 points)
Coal Battle (95 points)
Chunk of Gold (75 points)
Owen Almighty (65 points)
Citizen Bull, Publisher (60 points)
American Promise (55 points)
Flood Zone, Flying Mohawk (50 points)
Journalism (47.5 points)
Getaway Car, Madaket Road (46 points)
Built (45 Points)
Neoequos (40 points)
Chancer McPatrick, John Hancock (35 points)
Maximum Promise (33 points)
Poster (31 points)
Burnham Square (30 points)
Render Judgment (29 points)
Omaha Omaha (26 points)
Speed King, Instant Replay, River Thames, Sand Devil (25 points)
Hill Road (24 points)
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2025 Contenders (4-4-25)
1 – Sovereignty (Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini) – Trainer: Bill Mott – Last Ranking (1)
Comments: The Street Sense (G3) and Fountain of Youth (G2) winner rallied from post 10 and was clearly second best in the Florida Derby (G1) on March 29. On the positive side, he did not need to win the Florida Derby last weekend, but I was disappointed that he did not move forward at 1 1/8 miles in his second start after a layoff. He retains the top spot pending the results of the SA Derby on April 5.
2 – Journalism (Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo) – Trainer: Michael McCarthy – Last Ranking (2)
Comments: This colt is one impressive victory away from taking the top spot from Sovereignty. He was solid in the Los Al Futurity (G2) and was fast and strong in the San Felipe (G2). He is the SA Derby (G1) favorite and his final work for that race was visually impressive. If he wins at Santa Anita on Saturday, he will be the solid Kentucky Derby favorite.
3 – Citizen Bull (Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (3)
Comments: The SA Derby will be a big test for the 2-year-old champ. He just got out there and cruised on the front end in the American Pharoah (G1), BC Juvenile (G1), and Robert Lewis (G3). How will he handle Journalism’s tactical speed and finishing kick at 1 1/8 miles in the SA Derby? His rider Martin Garcia will almost certainly put him on the lead at Santa Anita, and he will take them as far as he can.
4 – Barnes (Into Mischief – All American Dream, by American Pharoah) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (4)
Comments: His stock was soaring after his sharp San Vicente (G2) score at seven panels in January. He made the lead in the San Felipe (G2) but was no match for Journalism in the lane in a clear runner-up finish. Since that race, they tried to work him without blinkers but that did not go well, and he put blinkers back on and outworked an overmatched filly on March 31. He seemed sharper over the winter and there are concerns about how far he wants to go. We should get more answers in the Grade 1 SA Derby on April 5.
5 – Sandman (Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Mark Casse – Last Ranking (5)
Comments: Everything came together for this one in the Arkansas Derby (G1). He got pace help and a clean closing trip, and picked up his first stakes win in his fifth try. The consistent closer has not finished out of the trifecta since September 2024.
6 – Tappan Street (Into Mischief – Virginia Key, Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (8)
Comments: His clear runner-up finish in the Holy Bull (G3) was solid, and that was his first route attempt in just his second career start. He skipped the FOY and trained up to the Florida Derby (G1), and Brad Cox had him primed and ready to roll last Saturday. He got the jump on my top choice Sovereignty and smartly captured the Florida Derby by 1 1/4 lengths. He is lightly raced and on the improve, but is three races enough to make him a player in the Kentucky Derby?
7 – Captain Cook (Practical Joke – Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie) – Trainer: Rick Dutrow – Last Ranking (6)
Comments: We will find out how good this one is when he takes on eleven rivals in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 5. The Withers winner has been targeting the Wood for several weeks and fired a half-mile bullet in 48.22 (1/7) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on April 1.
8 – Coal Battle (Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman) – Trainer: Lonnie Briley – Last Ranking (7)
Comments: His 4-race stakes winning streak ended with a show finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1). He is versatile and always gives a good account of himself in the stakes ranks, but he may have peaked over the winter.
9 – Burnham Square (Liam’s Map, Linda, by Scat Daddy) – Trainer: Ian Wilkes – Last Ranking (9)
Comments: Which Burnham Square will show up in the Blue Grass? Will it be the winning Holy Bull (G3) version, or will it be the flat FOY colt? Holy Bull runner-up Tappan Street and FOY winner Sovereignty returned to run 1-2 in the Florida Derby, and he won’t have to face either of those runners at Keeneland. He breezed 5f in 59.60 (9/34) at Churchill Downs on March 29.
10 – Chancer McPatrick (McKinzie – Bernadreamy, by Bernardini) – Trainer: Chad Brown – Last Ranking (10)
Comments: Does he really want to go two turns? His BC Juvenile (G1) effort was inclusive, and he was second best behind Owen Almighty in his needed Tampa Bay Derby (G3) return. We did not learn much in his last prep and everything is on the line for this one in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland on April 8. He breezed a half-mile in 48.80 (6/68) at Payson Park on March 29.
11 – Rodriguez (Authentic – Cayala, by Cherokee Run) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (11)
Comments: It is time for him to step up and prove that he belongs on this list, and he will get his chance in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 5. He will break from the rail in that race and is the 5-2 morning line favorite. He removes blinkers after taking a step back in a distant show finish in the San Felipe (G2), and he is training forwardly for his next assignment.
Next Nine: (12) Owen Almighty, (13) Tiztastic, (14) Chunk of Gold, (15) Final Gambit, (16) American Promise, (17) River Thames, (18) Flying Mohawk, (19) Grande, (20) Flood Zone
