Check out my Friday (4-18-25) Keeneland Race 9 analysis below.
KEE 9 (G3 Doubledogdare, F&M, 8.5f dirt) – Post Time 5:16 PM ET
Primary – #5 TARIFA, #1 Just F Y I
Secondary – #6 Candied, #7 Occult
Horse Comments:
#5 Tarifa (3-1) was my Kentucky Oaks horse last year and she did not fire that day. She won the G2 Rachel Alexandra, G2 FG Oaks, and G2 Mother Goose as a sophomore, and ended her 2024 campaign with a runner-up finish in the G3 Falls City in November. Brad Cox ’s Godolphin filly shipped to California and stalked the pace and was best of the rest in third in the G1 Beholder Mile at SA March 8. She is 1-for-1 at KEE and 3-for-4 with a show finish at this distance and she might offer a hint of value. She reconnects with her winning rider Florent Geroux.
#1 Just F Y I (7-2) captured her first three starts including the Frizette (G1) and BC Juvenile Fillies (G1). She returned with a runner-up finish in the local Ashland (G1), and landed the place from post 12 in the G1 Kentucky Oaks. She went to the sidelines after setting the pace and fading to 6th of 8 in the G1 Acorn (June 2024). She returned from a layoff of 9+ months and was second best after setting the pace in an optional-claimer at GP March 13 (one-turn mile). Bill Mott’s Justify filly sports two Florida bullets for this and should be forwardly placed from the inside post.
#6 Candied (8-5) was part of the trifecta in eight of nine career starts. She won the local Alcibiades (G1) at this distance in 2023, and her last win was in the Lady’s Secret at MTH last June. After that win, she was second in the G1 CCAO and G1 Alabama, and third in the G1 Spinster and G1 BC Distaff (blinkers on). Both of her stakes wins followed layoffs and Irad Ortiz, Jr. got to know her last time.
#7 Occult (7-2) won the G3 Monmouth Oaks by 10 lengths in 2023. Since that victory, she is 7 0-3-3. She completed the exacta in her final three starts of 2024 including back-to-back graded placings in the local G1 Spinster and G3 Go for Wand at AQU. Flavien Prat hops aboard Chad Brown’s relatively consistent mare.
Wagers:
#5 to win
Exacta box 1-5
Trifecta 1-5/1-5-6-7/1-5-6-7
Recent Bettor Bet$ Free Pick Winners
April 1 – Loveaboveandbeyond/Joy in Grace Exacta ($18.80)
April 2 – Andrea/Obliging Exacta ($27.80), Trifecta ($48.80)
April 7 – Colloquial ($2.70)
April 13 – Future Is Now/Pandora’s Gift Exacta ($23.78)
April 14 – Palacein/Take Me Serious Exacta ($19.40)
April 15 – C W Prize ($6.20), Exacta ($13.00)
April 16 – Augusta Melody ($6.34)
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