Check out my Friday (5-2-25) Churchill Downs Race 7 analysis below.
CD 7 (G1 La Troienne, 8.5f) – Post Time 2:24 PM ET
Primary – #4 RAGING SEA, #2 Thorpedo Anna
Secondary – #5 Randomized
Horse Comments:
#4 Raging Sea (9-2) had a fantastic 204 campaign with victories in the G3 Doubledogdare, G2 Shuvee, G1 Personal Ensign, and G2 Beldame, and a runner-up finish in the G1 BC Distaff. The grueling head score over idiomatic in the Personal Ensign last August seemed to take something out of her and she regressed in the Beldame. She ran huge in the BC. She was forced to do the pace dirty work chasing controlling speed Thorpedo Anna, and that is not her preferred style. She can settle into a stalking trip behind her stablemate Randomized and Thorpedo Anna in this spot. Flavien Prat knows her well and Chad Brown is an excellent layoff trainer, and she drilled a best of 68 half-mile bullet for this in Florida March 29.
#2 Thorpedo Anna (2-5) is 10-for-12 with two runner-up finishes. Last year, she rattled off wins in the G2 Fantasy, G1 Ky Oaks, G1 Acorn, and G1 CCAO, and missed by a head in the G1 Travers. Her last four starts resulted in victories in the G1 Cotillion, G1 BC Distaff, G2 Azeri, and G1 Apple Blossom. She towered over her rivals in most of her recent races and there is not much depth to this division right now. McPeek’s early-pressing filly is 2-for-3 with a runner-up finish at CD and 4-for-5 with a runner-up finish at 1 1/16 miles. She dominated overmatched foes in both starts this year but her numbers dropped off. She is the one to beat but might not be a slam dunk.
#5 Randomized (6-1) is fast enough to make the early lead. In 2023, she wired the field in the Wilton, G1 Alabama, and G2 Beldame, and set the pace and finished a half-length behind Idiomatic in the G1 BC Distaff. Last year, she set the pace and held the place in the G2 Ruffian, and made the lead and beat Idiomatic by a head in the G1 Ogden Phipps. She met Idiomatic again in the G1 Personal Ensign at SAR last summer and those two dueled through fast splits and Raging Sea came running for the win. Idiomatic was clearly second best, and show finisher Soul of an Angel came back to win the G3 Princess Rooney and G1 BC Filly & Mare Sprint. This mare was beaten 15 lengths in the Personal Ensign and this is her first start in 8+ months. She shared the bullet with Raging Sea on March 29.
Wagers:
#4 to win
Exacta 4-5/2
Trifecta key 4/2-5
Recent Bettor Bet$ Free Pick Winners
April 26 – Mink’s Palace ($10.06)
April 27 – Annan ($4.40), Exacta ($14.20)
May 1 – Brilliant Berti ($5.74), Exacta ($19.66), Trifecta ($61.00)
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