A pair of road to Kentucky Derby 2026 were run on Jan. 3. My World ran down race favorite Balboa in the Jerome at Aqueduct, and Strategic Risk took advantage of soft splits and captured the Smarty Jones by 4 1/2 lengths. A baker’s dozen Derby points races have been run so far, and in this report, I will recap the points races, update the points standings, and share my exceptional eleven Derby contenders.
I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my Runaway Horse YouTube channel, and through 13 points races, my top choices have 5 wins, 3 runner-up finishes, and a show finish. The next Derby points race is the Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds on Jan. 17.
Commandment looked good winning the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 3. He sat behind the speed from the inside post, found running room at the top of the stretch, and kicked away by 6 3/4 lengths under Irad Ortiz Jr. as the 1-2 favorite. He galloped out with plenty of energy and should handle added ground, but there was not much behind him and he needs to run faster against better company in future starts. He is a perfect 3-for-3 and a Derby points race start is just around the corner.
The Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Jan. 10 was not a Derby points race but could have Derby implications. Acknowledgemeplz was pressed early and he got clear around the turn and heading form home. It briefly looked like he would go all the way but So Happy ($7.80) stalked and pounced under Mike Smith and he moved away late to win by 2 lengths over race favorite Buetane. The latter was clearly second best in his first start since finishing second in the G1 Hopeful on Sept. 1. Acknowledgemeplz got early late and was best of the rest in third. Thirsty Rebel and Greenwich Village also ran. Mark Glatt saddled the winner and he figures to stretch out and jump on the Derby trail. He earned a BSF of 96 on Saturday.
In other Derby news, Blacksmith was the favorite in a flat mile MSW affair at Santa Anita on Jan. 9 and he chased inside, dropped back, and ran on for the show in a disappointing effort. He drops off my list. Iron Honor has not returned to the worktab since his winning debut at Aqueduct on Dec. 13 and he drops out of the rankings, andUniverse never picked up his feet in the Smarty Jones Stakes and drops off my list as well.
Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Recaps
Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct (1-3-26): Mailata scratched after romping by 19 lengths in the Parx Future Stars at 7f on Dec. 30. Four horses lined up and 26-1 outsider Freedom’s Echo set the pace and strong favorite Balboa pressed from the outside post. My World and Enforced Agenda raced as a team behind the two leaders. Balboa took over the lead and edged clear in the lane, and My World ($7.24) came after the favorite, wore that one down, and won by 2 lengths. Balboa was clearly second best and Enforced Agenda was a clear third. Freedom’s Echo faded to last. Jaime Rodriguez rode the winner for Brad Cox and the $350k son of Essential Quality stretched his winning streak to three. He is slowly getting faster but is still immature. Fractions: 23.58, 47.12, 1:12.23, 1:25.25, 1:38.96.
Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn (1-3-26): This race was handed to Strategic Risk ($7) on a silver platter. 51-1 outsider Scar Ship carved out crawling fractions and Strategic Risk parked himself outside the leader in second under Javier Castellano. Scar Ship weakened as expected and Strategic Risk hit the front and hand plenty left due to the slow pace and he won by 4 1/2 lengths. Surface switcher Silent Tactic rallied for the place and 84-1 longshot Baytown Dreamer stalked the pace and finished a clear third. Sleepingonfreedom raced wide from the outside post and finished fourth, and Rancho Santa Fe took the overland route and finished a better than appears 5th. Scar Ship weakened to 6th and was followed by beaten favorite Universe and fading stalker Oscar’s Hope. Boac Beach Club scratched. Mark Casse saddled the winner and runner-up. This race reminded me of the 2024 Gun Runner. Built crawled on the front end and romped in that Derby prep and many were impressed with his finishing kick. He finished fast because the pace was slow and he lost his next three Derby preps. Strategic Risk cruised in his last two dirt routes and I will take a wait and see approach. Fractions: 24.48, 49.72, 1:14.99, 1:39.04, 1:45.06.
Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Results
Iroquois (10-5-3-2-1) – Sept. 13 – Winner: Spice Runner ($12.38)
Champagne (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Napoleon Solo ($15.94)
American Pharoah (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Intrepido ($19.60)
Breeders’ Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Ted Noffey ($3.84)
Street Sense (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 26 – Winner: Incredibolt ($10.18)
BC Juvenile (30-15-9-6-3) – Oct. 31 – Winner: Ted Noffey ($3.60)
Ky Jockey Club (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 29 – Winner: Further Ado ($3.40)
Remsen (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 6 – Winner: Paladin ($5.76)
Los Al Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 13 – Winner: Litmus Test ($3.20)
Gun Runner (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 20 – Winner: Chip Honcho ($9.80)
Springboard Mile (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 20 – Winner: Express Kid ($71.00)
Jerome (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 3 – Winner: My World ($7.24)
Smarty Jones (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 3 – Winner: Strategic Risk ($7.00)
Lecomte (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 17
Holy Bull (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 31
Southwest (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 31
Withers (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 31
Robert Lewis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 7
Sam F. Davis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 7
Risen Star (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 14
Sunland Derby (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 15
John Battaglia Memorial (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 21
Fountain of Youth (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 28
Gotham (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 28
Rebel (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1
Tampa Bay Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 7
San Felipe (50-25-15-10-5) – March 7
Virginia Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 14
Jeff Ruby Steaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 21
Louisiana Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 21
Arkansas Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
Florida Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
UAE Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
Blue Grass (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
SA Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
Wood Memorial (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
Lexington (20-10-6-4-2) – April 11
Top 20 Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Leaders (thru 1-11-26)
Ted Noffey (40 points)
Litmus Test (19 points)
Intrepido (13 points)
Universe (13 points)
Spice Runner (11 points)
Napoleon Solo (10 points)
Further Ado (10 points)
Express Kid (10 points)
Paladin (10 points)
My World (10 points)
Strategic Risk (10 points)
Incredibolt (10 points)
Chip Honcho (10 points)
Brant (9 points)
Balboa (9 points)
Very Connected (6 points)
Comport (5 points)
Desert Gate (5 points)
Blackout Time (5 points)
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2026 Contenders (1-11-26)
1 – PALADIN (Gun Runner – Secret Sigh, by Tapit) – Trainer: Chad Brown – Last Ranking (1)
Comments: Grade 2 Remsen hero is spending the winter in Florida. He breezed an easy half-mile in 50.80 (36/40) at Payson Park on Dec. 28, and he traveled a half-mile in 48.60 (4/68) on Jan. 10.
2 – CANNONEER (Into Mischief – Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon) – Trainer: Brad Cox – – Last Ranking (2)
Comments: His maiden victory on the Kentucky Jockey Club undercard was strong and he has breezed three at Payson Park since including a 5f move in 1:02.60 (3/7) on Jan. 10.
3 – TED NOFFEY (Into Mischief – Streak of Luck, by Old Fashioned) – Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Last Ranking (3)
Comments: He will be named 2-year-old champion later this month after a 4-for-4 juvenile campaign. He has not returned to the worktab since his BC Juvenile (G1) triumph.
4 – RENEGADE (Into Mischief – Spice if Nice, by Curlin) – Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Last Ranking (4)
Comments: He crossed the line first in a special weight event at Aqueduct in October but was disqualified and placed second. He landed the place in the Remsen (G2) on Dec. 6 and the maiden has worked three at Palm Beach Downs since including a half-mile breeze in 49.22 (7/13) on Jan. 10.
5 – LITMUS TEST (Nyquist – Study Hard, by Malibu Moon) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (6)
Comments: He won the Los Al Futurity (G2) as the favorite on Dec. 13. He worked 3f in 37.00 (15/29) at Santa Anita on Dec. 29, and he traveled four panels in 47.80 (9/35) on Jan. 9.
6 – FURTHER ADO (Gun Runner – Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (5)
Comments: Four horses have run back from the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and the returns are not good. Universe was 7th in the Smarty Jones, Very Connected was 5th in the Gun Runner, Cherokee Nation was second in a MSW route at SA on Jan. 9, and Spice Runner was 11th in the Remington Springboard Mile. This one has not had a published work since his Ky Jockey Club victory as the favorite.
7 – GOLDEN TEMPO (Curlin – Carrumba, by Bernardini) – Trainer: Cherie DeVaux – Last Ranking (10)
Comments: Captured his debut at Fair Grounds on the Gun Runner Stakes Day undercard on Dec. 20. He breezed a half-mile in 48.80 (17/66) at FG on Jan. 2, and he went 5f in 1:02.20 (21/28) on Jan. 9. He is entered in the Lecomte (G3) on Jan. 17.
8 – LIBERTY NATIONAL (Maxfield – Virtuoso, by Awesome Again) – Trainer: Ken McPeek – Last Ranking (13)
Comments: Finished 6th of 8 at 12-1 odds in his seven panel bow, and smartly moved forward in his dirt route graduation run at Churchill (Nov. 29) on the Ky Jockey Club Stakes Day undercard (1st by 4 1/4 lengths). He returned in three weeks and rallied inside for the place as the beaten favorite in the Gun Runner on Dec. 20. He breezed a half-mile in 49.20 (45/136) at FG on Jan. 3, and he went four panels in 49.20 (31/70) on Jan. 10.
9 – INCREDIBOLT (Bolt d’Oro – Sapphire Spitfire, by Awesome Again) – Trainer: Riley Mott – Last Ranking (14)
Comments: Won his final two starts of 2025 including a last-to-first victory in the Street Sense (G3) on Oct. 26. He is spending the winter in Florida and has worked four times since Dec. 17. He drilled a half-mile bullet in 48.45 (1/20) at Palm Meadows on Jan. 7.
10 – NEARLY (Not This Time – IB Prospecting, by Mineshaft) – Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Last Ranking (unranked)
Comments: Chased the pace and won his last two Gulfstream Park sprints by a combined 14 1/4 lengths. He easily handled seven panels on Jan. 2 and earned a 96 BSF for his victory. He will stretch out and jump on the Derby trail next time. The Holy Bull (G3) on Jan. 31 is in play if everything goes well.
11 – MOB (Gun Runner – Onslaught, by Street Sense) – Trainer: Brian Lynch – Last Ranking (11)
Comments: Looked good in his Nov. 23 debut and worked four times at Palm Meadows Training Center in December. He drilled back-to-back 5f bullets on Dec. 14 and Dec. 21, and he breezed a half-mile in 50.50 (22/54) on Dec. 28. He was entered on Jan. 2 at Gulfstream but was a vet scratch and has not had a published workout since.
Next Nine: (12) Brant, (13) Napoleon Solo, (14) Blackout Time, (15) So Happy, (16) Pyromancer, (17) Schoolyardsuperman, (18), (1) Commandment, (19) Chip Honcho, (20) Strategic Risk
