The Virginia Derby was the lone road to Kentucky Derby 2026 prep race last week and Incredibolt bounced back with a sharp victory. In this report, I will recap the Virginia Derby, update the points standings, and share my exceptional eleven Derby contenders.
I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my Runaway Horse video channel, and through 28 points races, my top choices have 10 wins, 4 runner-up finishes, and 5 show finishes. The road to the Derby continues with the Louisiana Derby (G2) and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on March 21.
LA Derby field (race 12): 1 – Pavlovian, 2 – Autobahn, 3 – Chip Honcho, 4 – Universe, 5 – Golden Tempo, 6 – Spirit of Royal, 7 – Blacksmith, 8 – Easterly, 9 – Emerging Market
Jeff Ruby Steaks field (race 12): 1 – Turf Star, 2 – Fulleffort, 3 – Baytown Dreamer, 4 – Two Out Hero, 5 – Black Hornet, 6 – Medici, 7 – Maximus Prime, 8 – Chaos Agent, 9 – Brave Force, 10 – Argos, 11 – Stark Contrast, 12 – Stop the Car
Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Recaps
Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs (3-14-26): Trips made all the difference in this one-turn event at a mile and an eighth. Buetane was bottled up in traffic from the inside post and never really had clear sailing. At the other end of the spectrum, Incredibolt ($14.40) worked out a great tactical trip under Jaime Torres. He tracked the three early leaders, pounced on those tiring runners, got the jump on the closers, and won by 4 lengths (88 BSF). Grittiness rallied from last of 10 to complete the exacta and Confessional closed wide and was best of the rest in third. A troubled Buetane ended up a better than appears fourth under Flavien Prat and he had energy on the gallop out. Lockstocknpharoah set the pace and weakened to 5th, and maiden Ocelli (6th), Clocker Special (7th), Work (8th), Epic Desire (9th), and disappointing 4-1 shot High Camp (10th) also ran. Riley Mott saddled the winner. Fractions: 23.49, 47.15, 1:11.33, 1:35.74, 1:47.76.
Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Results
Iroquois (10-5-3-2-1) – Sept. 13 – Winner: Spice Runner ($12.38)
Champagne (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Napoleon Solo ($15.94)
American Pharoah (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Intrepido ($19.60)
Breeders’ Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Ted Noffey ($3.84)
Street Sense (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 26 – Winner: Incredibolt ($10.18)
BC Juvenile (30-15-9-6-3) – Oct. 31 – Winner: Ted Noffey ($3.60)
Ky Jockey Club (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 29 – Winner: Further Ado ($3.40)
Remsen (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 6 – Winner: Paladin ($5.76)
Los Al Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 13 – Winner: Litmus Test ($3.20)
Gun Runner (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 20 – Winner: Chip Honcho ($9.80)
Springboard Mile (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 20 – Winner: Express Kid ($71.00)
Jerome (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 3 – Winner: My World ($7.24)
Smarty Jones (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 3 – Winner: Strategic Risk ($7.00)
Lecomte (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 17 – Winner: Golden Tempo ($7.40)
Holy Bull (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 31 – Winner: Nearly ($5.40)
Southwest (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 6 – Winner: Silent Tactic ($26.00)
Withers (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 6 – Winner: Talk to Me Jimmy ($26.54)
Robert Lewis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 7 – Winner: Plutarch ($10.20)
Sam F. Davis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 7 – Winner: Renegade ($4.40)
Risen Star (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 14 – Winner: Paladin ($3.40)
Sunland Derby (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 15 – Winner: Pavlovian ($12.20)
John Battaglia Memorial (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 21 – Winner: Great White ($32.32)
Fountain of Youth (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 28 – Winner: Commandment ($6.80)
Gotham (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 28 – Winner: Iron Honor ($3.88)
Rebel (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1 – Winner: Class President ($19.00)
Tampa Bay Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 7 – Winner: The Puma ($16.80)
San Felipe (50-25-15-10-5) – March 7 – Winner: Potente ($18.20)
Virginia Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 14 – Winner: Incrediblot ($14.40)
Jeff Ruby Steaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 21
Louisiana Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 21
Arkansas Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
Florida Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
UAE Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
Blue Grass (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
SA Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
Wood Memorial (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
Lexington (20-10-6-4-2) – April 11
Top 25 Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Leaders (thru 3-16-26)
Paladin (60 points)
Incredibolt (60 points)
The Puma (56 points)
Silent Tactic (50 points)
Class President (50 points)
Commandment (50 points)
Iron Honor (50 points)
Potente (50 points)
Chip Honcho (39 points)
Grittiness (36 points)
Further Ado (35 points)
Golden Tempo (35 points)
Litmus Test (34 points)
Renegade (25 points)
Chief Wallabee (25 points)
Robusta (25 points)
Intrepido (23 points)
Universe (23 points)
Pavlovian (20 points)
Express Kid (20 points)
Nearly (20 points)
Talk to Me Jimmy (20 points)
Great White (20 points)
Bravaro (20 points)
Soldier N Diplomat (18 points)
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2026 Contenders (3-16-26)
1 – PALADIN (Gun Runner – Secret Sigh, by Tapit) – Trainer: Chad Brown – Last Ranking (1)
Comments: Chad Brown’s 2-time Grade 2 winner (Remsen, Risen Star) has worked three times at Payson Park since his last stakes victory at the Fair Grounds. He breezed a half-mile in 49.80 (25/64) on March 13 and goes next in the Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 4.
2 – RENEGADE (Into Mischief – Spice is Nice, by Curlin) – Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Last Ranking (2)
Comments: Finished with interest to easily capture the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 7. He has breezed four times since that race including a 5f move in 1:01.54 (3/4) at Palm Beach Downs on March 13. He will make his next start in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn on March 28.
3 – NEARLY (Not This Time – IB Prospecting, by Mineshaft) – Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Last Ranking (3)
Comments: The Grade 3 Holy Bull hero is gearing up for the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream on March 28. He has worked five times at Palm Beach Downs since his last start including a 5f bullet in 1:01.10 (1/4) on March 13.
4 – GOLDEN TEMPO (Curlin – Carrumba, by Bernardini) – Trainer: Cherie DeVaux – Last Ranking (4)
Comments: Rallied for the show in the Risen Star (G2) last time. He has worked three times at the Fair Grounds since his last start including a half-mile breeze in 48.80 (42/123) on March 13. He is entered in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 21 and will wear blinkers for the first time.
5 – COMMANDMENT (Into Mischief – Sippican Harbor, by Orb) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (5)
Comments: Grade 2 Fountain of Youth hero got back to work with a half-mile move in 50.00 (33/64) at Payson Park on March 13. He goes next in the Florida Derby (G1) on March 28.
6 – CHIEF WALLABEE (Constitution – A La Lucie by Medaglia d’Oro) – Trainer: Bill Mott – Last Ranking (6)
Comments: Finished a good second in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and that was just his second career start. He breezed 4f in 49.00 (3/64) at Payson Park on March 13 and the Florida Derby (G1) is his next race.
7 – REAGAN’S HONOR (Honor A. P. – Rutile, by Medaglia d’Oro) – Trainer: Cherie DeVaux – Last Ranking (7)
Comments: Exits a fast dirt route allowance win at the Fair Grounds. He has worked twice in New Orleans since his last start including a half-mile move in 48.80 (42/123) on March 13. He is gearing up for his stakes debut in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland on April 4.
8 – CHEROKEE NATION (Not This Time – Believe In Charlie, by Indian Charlie) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (8)
Comments: Lost his first two stakes attempts as a maiden, and he will return to the stakes ranks after a romping maiden win on Feb. 27. He worked 3f in 38.20 (9/10) at Santa Anita on March 14 and is expected to target the Grade 1 SA Derby on April 4.
9 – FURTHER ADO (Gun Runner – Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (9)
Comments: He won back-to-back dirt routes to end his 2025 campaign, and he resurfaced in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and finished a close second in a 3-horse battle to the wire. He might make his next start in the Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 4.
10 – LITMUS TEST (Nyquist – Study Hard, by Malibu Moon) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (10)
Comments: Set the pace from the inside and settled for the show in the Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 1 and that was his first outing since capturing the Los Al Futurity (G2) late last year. He worked a half-mile in 48.80 (31/90) at Oaklawn on March 14 and he might return to Oaklawn Park for the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on March 28.
11 – SILENT TACTIC (Tacitus – Magical Sign, by Gun Runner) – Trainer: Mark Casse – Last Ranking (11)
Comments: This $500k Tacitus colt always runs his race from off the pace. The Grade 3 Southwest hero almost won the Grade 2 Rebel as well. The Arkansas Derby (G1) on March 28 is his next scheduled assignment.
Next Nine: (12) Class President, (13) Potente, (14) The Puma, (15) Intrepido, (16) Incredibolt, (17) Iron Honor, (18) Pyromancer, (19) Blackout Time, (20) So Happy
