There were two road to Kentucky Derby 2026 prep races on March 7 and both were captured by unraced 2-year-olds. The Puma graduated in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, and second time starter Potente made the grade in the San Felipe (G2). In this report, I will recap the Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe, update the points standings, and share my exceptional eleven Derby contenders.
I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my Runaway Horse video channel, and through 27 points races, my top choices have 10 wins, 4 runner-up finishes, and 5 show finishes. The road to the Derby points race series continues with the Virginia Derby on March 14.
Virginia Derby field (races 9 at Colonial Downs on March 14): 1 – Buetane, 2 – Grittiness, 3 – Epic Desire, 4 – Work, 5 – High Camp, 6 – Lockstocknpharoah, 7 – Incredibolt, 8 – Confessional, 9 – Ocelli, 10 – Clocker Special.
Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Recaps
Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs (3-8-26): Longshots Redland Rebels and Talkin were prominent early but neither were factors at the end. This one came down to Kentucky Jockey Club hero Further Ado and a pair of lightly raced runners from outer posts. Second timer Canaletto was the favorite over Further Ado when the dust settled, and he traveled wide from the outside post under Flavien Prat. The Puma ($16.80), a maiden after two starts, was exiting a show finish in the local Sam F. Davis and his race over the track probably made all the difference. He raced even wider than Canaletto if that is possible, and in a 3-horse stretch battle, he prevailed by 3/4ths of a length (89 BSF). Further Ado was second by a head over Canaletto and it was 2 lengths back to early runner Redland Rebels (4th). Talkin (5th), Powershift (6th), Thunder Buck (7th), Hulkamania (8th), and Roger That Dana (9th) also ran. Javier Castellano rode the winner for Gustavo Delgado. Fractions: 23.07, 46.68, 1:11.27, 1:36.47, 1:43.23.
Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park (3-8-26): It seemed like most of the entrants in this race were sprinters. Brant, making his first start since finishing third in the BC Juvenile (G1), set a pressured pace but came up empty in a disappointing try as the beaten favorite. So Happy and Secured Freedom were the second and third betting choices but they did not go on when the real running began. 67-1 outside Robusta chased from the outside post, led, and almost pulled off a massive upset, but Baffert second timer Potente ($18.20) was lurking behind the pace, came after the leaders in the stretch, and surged late to nip Robusta by a head (89 BSF). So Happy was a clear third and Secured Freedom was best of the rest in fourth. Brant weakened to 5th and was followed by Start the Ride and Flashy Fritz. Juan Hernandez rode the winner for Bob Baffert. Fractions: 22.88, 46.62, 1:10.42, 1:36.22, 1:42.92.
Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Results
Iroquois (10-5-3-2-1) – Sept. 13 – Winner: Spice Runner ($12.38)
Champagne (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Napoleon Solo ($15.94)
American Pharoah (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Intrepido ($19.60)
Breeders’ Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Ted Noffey ($3.84)
Street Sense (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 26 – Winner: Incredibolt ($10.18)
BC Juvenile (30-15-9-6-3) – Oct. 31 – Winner: Ted Noffey ($3.60)
Ky Jockey Club (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 29 – Winner: Further Ado ($3.40)
Remsen (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 6 – Winner: Paladin ($5.76)
Los Al Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 13 – Winner: Litmus Test ($3.20)
Gun Runner (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 20 – Winner: Chip Honcho ($9.80)
Springboard Mile (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 20 – Winner: Express Kid ($71.00)
Jerome (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 3 – Winner: My World ($7.24)
Smarty Jones (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 3 – Winner: Strategic Risk ($7.00)
Lecomte (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 17 – Winner: Golden Tempo ($7.40)
Holy Bull (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 31 – Winner: Nearly ($5.40)
Southwest (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 6 – Winner: Silent Tactic ($26.00)
Withers (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 6 – Winner: Talk to Me Jimmy ($26.54)
Robert Lewis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 7 – Winner: Plutarch ($10.20)
Sam F. Davis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 7 – Winner: Renegade ($4.40)
Risen Star (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 14 – Winner: Paladin ($3.40)
Sunland Derby (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 15 – Winner: Pavlovian ($12.20)
John Battaglia Memorial (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 21 – Winner: Great White ($32.32)
Fountain of Youth (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 28 – Winner: Commandment ($6.80)
Gotham (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 28 – Winner: Iron Honor ($3.88)
Rebel (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1 – Winner: Class President ($19.00)
Tampa Bay Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 7 – Winner: The Puma ($16.80)
San Felipe (50-25-15-10-5) – March 7 – Winner: Potente ($18.20)
Virginia Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 14
Jeff Ruby Steaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 21
Louisiana Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 21
Arkansas Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
Florida Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
UAE Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
Blue Grass (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
SA Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
Wood Memorial (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
Lexington (20-10-6-4-2) – April 11
Top 20 Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Leaders (thru 3-8-26)
Paladin (60 points)
The Puma (56 points)
Silent Tactic (50 points)
Class President (50 points)
Commandment (50 points)
Iron Honor (50 points)
Potente (50 points)
Chip Honcho (39 points)
Further Ado (35 points)
Golden Tempo (35 points)
Litmus Test (34 points)
Renegade (25 points)
Chief Wallabee (25 points)
Robusta (25 points)
Intrepido (23 points)
Universe (23 points)
Pavlovian (20 points)
Express Kid (20 points)
Nearly (20 points)
Talk to Me Jimmy (20 points)
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2026 Contenders (3-8-26)
1 – PALADIN (Gun Runner – Secret Sigh, by Tapit) – Trainer: Chad Brown – Last Ranking (1)
Comments: He ran his fastest race to date in his first start of the year in the Grade 2 Risen Star (93 BSF). Both of his graded wins were at a mile and an eighth, and he has worked twice since his last outing including a half-mile breeze in 49.60 (21/81) at Payson Park on March 7. The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 4 is his next stakes assignment.
2 – RENEGADE (Into Mischief – Spice is Nice, by Curlin) – Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Last Ranking (2)
Comments: He received a BSF of 92 for his Sam F. Davis Stakes win on Feb. 7 and was flattered when show finisher The Puma returned to take the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) on March 7. This one has worked three times since his last start including a half-mile move in 49.33 (4/14) at Palm Beach Downs on March 7. He is scheduled to make his next start in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn on March 28.
3 – NEARLY (Not This Time – IB Prospecting, by Mineshaft) – Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Last Ranking (3)
Comments: The Holy Bull (G3) winner has breezed four times since that score including a 5f move in 1:00.60 (1/2) at Palm Beach Downs on March 6. He remains on course for the Florida Derby (G1) on March 28.
4 – GOLDEN TEMPO (Curlin – Carrumba, by Bernardini) – Trainer: Cherie DeVaux – Last Ranking (4)
Comments: The Lecomte (G) hero closed for third in the Risen Star (G2) on Feb. 14. He got back to work with a half-mile breeze in 47.80 (7/50) at Fair Grounds on Feb. 27, and he went 5f in 1:00.40 (3/21) on March 6. He goes next in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 21.
5 – COMMANDMENT (Into Mischief – Sippican Harbor, by Orb) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (6)
Comments: He worked out a great inner tactical trip and won the Fountain of Youth (G2) by a neck at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 28 (101 BSF). He is riding a three-race win streak and figures to run next in the Florida Derby (G1) on March 28.
6 – CHIEF WALLABEE (Constitution – A La Lucie by Medaglia d’Oro) – Trainer: Bill Mott – Last Ranking (7)
Comments: He was 5-2 in his seven panel debut at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 10 and he defeated race favorite The Puma by a length and a half, and the latter won the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) on March 7. This one earned a quality number in his bow and he stretched out, raced wide, and missed by a neck in a clear runner-up finish in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on Feb. 28. The Florida Derby (G1) is probably his next assignment.
7 – REAGAN’S HONOR (Honor A. P. – Rutile, by Medaglia d’Oro) – Trainer: Cherie DeVaux – Last Ranking (9)
Comments: Smartly wired the field as favorite in an allowance dirt route at Fair Grounds on Feb. 19 (96 BSF). He breezed 5f in 1:00.40 (3/40) at the Fair Grounds on March 6, and he is targeting the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland on April 4.
8 – CHEROKEE NATION (Not This Time – Believe In Charlie, by Indian Charlie) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (11)
Comments: He ran off the screen in his dirt route maiden win at Santa Anita on Feb. 27 (100 BSF). It looks like Bob Baffert’s $1.15 million colt is figuring things out at the right time and he might run next in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 4.
9 – FURTHER ADO (Gun Runner – Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (5)
Comments: The 2025 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) hero made his sophomore debut in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) on March 7 and he stalked the pace, battled for the lead, and held the place by a head in a three-horse skirmish in the stretch. He graduated by 20 lengths in a dirt route at Keeneland last fall and might go next in the Grade 1 Blue Grass at that venue on April 4.
10 – LITMUS TEST (Nyquist – Study Hard, by Malibu Moon) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (10)
Comments: The 2025 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) hero set the pace from the inside post and was best of the rest in third in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn on March 1. His connections are planning a return trip to Oaklawn for the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on March 28.
11 – SILENT TACTIC (Tacitus – Magical Sign, by Gun Runner) – Trainer: Mark Casse – Last Ranking (12)
Comments: He moves up one spot and this is his first Exceptional 11 appearance. The $500k Tacitus colt has a good foundation with five exacta finishes from as many route starts. He picked up his first stakes victory in the Grade 3 Southwest (88 BSF), and he just missed in the Grade 2 Rebel (91 BSF). This one is slowly getting faster and the Arkansas Derby (G1) on March 28 is his next scheduled start.
Next Nine: (12) Class President, (13) Potente, (14) The Puma, (15) Intrepido, (16) Iron Honor, (17) Pyromancer, (18) Blackout Time, (19) So Happy, (20) Canaletto
