Check out my Race 3 (Top Flight), Race 5 (Times Square), and Race 8 (Park Avenue) analysis at Aqueduct on Sunday (4-14-24) below.
AQU 3 (Top Flight, F&M, 9f)
Primary – #3 TIZZY IN THE SKY
Secondary – #1 Comparative, #4 Spiked
Horse Comments:
#3 Tizzy in the Sky (6-5) does some of her best work at Aqueduct and she likes this distance as well. She set the pace and romped by 9 3/4 lengths in a local optional-claiming race at 1 1/8 miles last October, and carved out the splits and missed by a neck in the Turnback the Alarm under Sunday’s rider Kendrick Carmouche in November. Todd Pletcher’s mare was second again in the Go for Wand (G3), and started 2024 with an even fourth as the beaten favorite in the Royal Delta (G3). She might make the lead and could go all the way.
#1 Comparative (1-1) had her 3-race win streak snapped in a flat effort in the Grade 2 Azeri at Oaklawn on March 9. In two previous local attempts, she chased the pace and won an optional-claiming race, and utilized similar tactics in the Ladies at this distance. She shipped to Oaklawn and won the Grade 3 Bayakoa on Feb. 2, and was unplaced in the Azeri last time. Manny Franco sticks with Brad Cox’s Street Sense filly, and she should be forwardly placed from the inside post.
#4 Spiked (10-1) ran well in all three starts at 1 1/8 miles, and she can go better in her third start after a layoff. She landed the show from the outside post at 14-1 odds in the Heavenly Prize on Feb. 10, and broke through the gate and was a no show in an optional-claiming affair last time.
Wagers:
Exacta 3-1
Trifecta 3-1-4
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AQU 5 (NYSS Times Square, NY-bred 3yo, 6.5f)
Primary – #7 DOC SULLIVAN, #4 Antonio of Venice
Secondary – #2 Freedsdale, #3 Heavyweight Champs
Horse Comments:
#7 Doc Sullivan (5-2) fired trifecta shots in all four starts at Aqueduct. He rallied for the win in the mud at six panels as the favorite second time out. He added lasix and romped by 7 lengths at one mile on Jan. 19, and chased the pace and held the place in the Gander on Feb. 25. Pandagate beat him last time and that one shipped to Dubai and landed the show in the UAE Derby (G2) on March 30. The fresh Solomini colt reconnects with his winning rider Dylan Davis.
#4 Antonio of Venice (9-5) made the lead and dusted three foes in a local state bred stakes race on March 17. He owns quality speed ratings and I like his early-pressing versatility. Rudy Rodriguez shows a profit in the non-graded ranks and Manny Franco strings along.
#2 Freedsdale (4-1) earned a decent speed rating in a stalk and pounce victory at 10-1 odds in his local debut on April 4. He sat off a duel last time and might try to do the same thing in this spot.
#3 Heavyweight Champs (3-1) has plenty of early zip for Rudy Rodriguez. He made the lead and aired as the favorite in a local maiden race at 6 1/2 furlongs on Feb. 25. He meets other speed in this tougher race.
Wagers:
#7 to win
Exacta box 4-7
Trifecta 4-7/2-3-4-7/2-3-4-7
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AQU 8 (NYSS Park Avenue, NY-bred 3yo fillies, 6.5f)
Primary – #6 SOHANA, #8 Sunday Girl
Secondary – #7 My Shea D Lady, #4 Fast and Frisky
Horse Comments:
#6 Sohana (5-2) battled on the pace and graduated by a nose in her local debut late last year, and the runner-up was a next-out winner. She stalked and was second best on Feb. 9, and the show finisher was a next-out winner. She dueled in the mud and was clearly second best as the 3-2 favorite at this course/distance on March 3, and winner Sweet Brown Sugar clicked right back in the East View. She won the pace battle but lost the war last time, and she might try to track longshot Bustin Time in this spot. Manny Franco got to know Brad Cox’s Solomini filly last time, and the $200k purchase should make her presence felt from the outset.
#8 Sunday Girl (2-1) pressed wide and ran away by 7 1/4 lengths under Katie Davis in a smart local maiden victory at 9-2 odds on Feb. 10. She figures to work out another outside pressing trip.
#7 My Shea D Lady (7-2) broke through with a chalky win from off the pace in a similar local extended sprint stakes race at the end of her 2023 campaign. Javier Castellano stays put and she will have to run a bit faster to compete for the win. She appears to be training forwardly for this engagement.
#4 Fast and Frisky (9-2) returned to dirt and added lasix in her last pair, and she showed marked improvement in those two flat mile events at Aqueduct. She cuts back in her third start of the year, and she loses lasix and should be forwardly placed.
Wagers:
#6 to win
Exacta box 6-8
Trifecta 6-8/4-6-7-8/4-6-7-8
Recent Bettor Bet$ Free Pick Winners
March 16 – Stay Hot ($4.00)
March 17 – Stay and Scam ($4.40), Exacta ($24.20)
March 22 – Big Novel ($4.20), Exacta ($19.60)
March 23 – Missed the Cut ($4.00), Exacta ($6.40), Trifecta ($14.40)
March 24 – Cathkin Peak/Crosby Beach Exacta ($22.80), Trifecta ($96.80)
March 29 – Sugar Fish ($5.00), Trifecta ($28.80)
April 5 – De’ Medici/Feel the Magic Exacta ($55.40)
April 10 – Native Land/Heartened/Rocketeer Trifecta ($49.04)
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