Check out my Sunday (12-1-24) Churchill Downs Race 11 analysis below.
CD 11 (Cherokee Mile, 8f) – Post Time 5:48 PM ET
Primary – #7 SCOTLAND, #3 Injunction
Secondary – #8 Rocket Can, #1 Brunacini
Horse Comments:
#7 Scotland (4-1) never got involved as the beaten favorite in the Bold Ruler (G3) last time. He rallied to win an optional-claiming event at this course and distance last year and is a decent sort in these long sprints. He reconnects with his winning rider Junior Alvarado and had a decent local work for this Nov. 25. He projects a stalking trip while out in the clear and might bounce back in his third start after a layoff.
#3 Injunction (3-1) was part of the trifecta in his last four starts. William Cowens claimed him for $80k May 3 and he won a stakes race for his new connections at Horseshoe Indy July 6. He stalked and finished 2nd to Saudi Crown in the Cowboy Jones Aug. 11, and was a solid third in the Parx Dirt Mile Sept. 21. The fresh gelding enjoys this course and distance, and his winning rider Edgar Morales stays put.
#8 Rocket Can (8-1) ran out of ground as the beaten favorite in a local extended sprint Nov. 9. He fired exacta shots in all three flat mile starts and Tyler Gaffalione got to know him last time.
#1 Brunacini (7-2) is a lightly raced sophomore with a 2-for-3 record. He stalked and scored in his seven panel bow and the 2-3 finishers were next-out winners. He set the pace from the inside post and missed by a half-length when finishing 5th of 11 as the beaten favorite at 1/16 miles Sept. 19. He cut back to his winning distance in the Perryville (G3) Oct. 19 and he rallied from the outside post to pull off the 28-1 upset. I don’t love the inside draw and he is the least experienced runner in the field, but he has raw ability and owns ascending numbers.
Wagers:
#7 to win
Exacta box 3-7
Trifecta 3-7/1-3-7-8/1-3-7-8
Recent 2024 Bettor Bet$ Free Pick Winners
Nov. 20 – Takechargesmiling/Osprey Exacta ($35.80), Trifecta ($83.00)
Nov. 22 – Sbagliato ($5.20), Quinella ($14.20), Trifecta ($141.60)
Nov. 24 – Rastaman Vibe ($7.20)
Nov. 27 – Tudox Opportunity ($7.60)
Nov. 29 – Truly Quality/Balnikhov/
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