The Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct and Smarty Jones at Oaklawn were the first two Kentucky Derby 2025 prep races of the new year. Cyclone State won the Jerome and Coal Battle captured the Smarty Jones, and both were all over the pace. In this report, I will recap the Jerome and Smarty Jones, update the Derby points standings, and share my exceptional 11 Derby contenders.
In other Derby news, the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes drew a competitive field of 14, and the winner of that event will pick up 20 Derby points. The Lecomte is the 12th race at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Jan. 18 and Gun Runner Stakes winner Built is the 3-1 morning line favorite.
Lecomte field: 1 – Innovator (10-1), 2 – Maximum Promise (10-1), 3 – Admiral Dennis (8-1), 4 – Magnitude (6-1), 5 – Optical (20-1), 6 – Golden Afternoon (20-1), 7 – Calling Card (12-1), 8 – Tough Catch (10-1), 9 – Dapper Moon (12-1), 10 – Mobetterthangood (20-1), 11 – Disco Time (9-2), 12 – Jolly Samurai (20-1), 13 – Built (3-1), 14 – Seattle Road (20-1)
Two-time Grade 1 winner Chancer McPatrick had minor angle surgery after finishing 6th in the BC Juvenile. He also emerged from that race with a quarter crack, and his 3-year-old campaign has been delayed. If everything goes according to plan, Chad Brown would like to run him in the Tampa Bay Derby (March 8) and Blue Grass Stakes (April 5), but any type of setback could dash his Derby dreams.
Last year’s Grade 3 Iroquois winner Jonathan’s Way, most recently second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs, is spending the winter at Fair Grounds and is expected to make his sophomore debut in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) on Feb. 15.
Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is open from January 17-19 and closes at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday. There are 40 betting interests and Bob Baffert’s $3.2 million Into Mischief colt Barnes is the lowest-priced individual interest at 10-1 odds. Win and exacta wagering is offered.
Hot Property raced wide and never got seriously involved at 2-1 odds in the Smarty Jones, and he drops off my Derby list.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Race Recaps
Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct (1-4-25): My top choice McAfee had a minor leg infection and scratched. That left a field of seven and Studlydoright was the betting favorite. Cyclone State was the third betting choice and he dueled with Enduring Spirit early and shook loose after four panels. He went from a length and a half up to a 5 1/2-length advantage after six furlongs. He was 8 lengths in front in the stretch and Omaha Omaha rallied from last and was cutting into the winning margin late, but this race was over. Cyclone State won by 3 1/2 lengths and Omaha Omaha was 3 1/4 lengths in front of show finisher Ican. Beaten favorite Studlydoright missed the show by a head and it was a long way back to Mansetti, Georgia Magic, and Enduring Spirit. Luis Rivera Jr. rode the winner for Chad Summers. Fractions: 23.43, 47.25, 1:13.20, 1:26.41, 1:40.82.
Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn (1-4-25): Curvino and Optical scratched and six runners broke from the gate. This was a strangely run race with a crawling pace and slow final time. Kale’s Angel, exiting a fast local dirt sprint stakes win in the Advent, drew the rail and looked like the controlling speed on paper, but he was passively handled under Ramon Vazquez. Coal Battle, a closer breaking from the outside post, was all over the pace and slowed things down considerably with a second interior fraction of 26.61. Kale’s Angel pressed inside and Mo Quality stalked wide, but Coal Battle was always traveling smoothly and he kicked away in the stretch and won by 4 lengths. Mo Quality edged Kale’s Angel for the place. The former was my top choice and he was wide throughout in a solid effort. Maiden Bon Temps, Hot Property, and Hot Gunner also ran. The final outcome of this race might have looked much different if Kale’s Angel was ridden more aggressively. Juan Vargas rode the winner for Lonnie Briley. I do not know what to make of this odd event. Fractions: 24.11, 49.03, 1:15.64, 1:40.30, 1:46.43.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Race Results
Iroquois (10-5-3-2-1) – Sept. 14 – Winner: Jonathan’s Way ($4.52)
Champagne (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – Winner: Chancer McPatrick ($3.10)
American Pharoah (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – Citizen Bull ($8.60)
Breeders’ Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – East Avenue ($7.56)
Street Sense (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 27 – Winner: Sovereignty ($4.86)
BC Juvenile (30-15-9-6-3) – Nov. 1 – Winner: Citizen Bull ($33.80)
Ky Jockey Club (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 30 – Winner: First Resort ($14.66)
Remsen (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 7 – Winner: Poster ($11.60)
Springboard Mile (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 13 – Winner: Coal Battle ($15.80)
Los Al Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 14 – Winner: Journalism ($7.60)
Gun Runner (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 21 – Winner: Built ($9.80)
Jerome (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 4 – Winner: Cyclone State ($8.10)
Smarty Jones (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 4 – Winner: Coal Battle ($11.00)
Upcoming Derby Points Races Races:
Lecomte (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 18
Southwest (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 25
Holy Bull (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1
Robert Lewis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1
Withers (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1
Sam F. Davis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 8
Risen Star (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 15
Sunland Derby (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 16
John Battaglia Memorial (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 22
Rebel (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 22
Fountain of Youth (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1
Gotham (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1
San Felipe (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1
Tampa Bay Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 8
Virginia Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 15
Jeff Ruby Steaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 22
Louisiana Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 22
Arkansas Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 29
Florida Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 29
Blue Grass (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
SA Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
UAE Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
Wood Memorial (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
Lexington (20-10-6-4-2) – April 12
Top 25 Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Leaders (thru 1-16-25)
Citizen Bull (40 points)
Coal Battle (20 points)
Gaming (18 points)
Getaway Car (16 points)
Jonathan’s Way (15 points)
Chancer McPatrick (10 points)
East Avenue (10 points)
First Resort (10 points)
Poster (10 points)
Journalism (10 points)
Sovereignty (10 points)
Cyclone State (10 points)
Built (10 points)
Hill Road (9 points)
Tiztastic (8 points)
Ferocious (8 points)
Dapper Moon (6 points)
Owen Almighty (5 points)
Tip Top Thomas (5 points)
Speed King (5 points)
Aviator Gui (5 points)
Mo Quality (5 points)
Omaha Omaha (5 points)
Magnitude (5 points)
Studlydoright (4 points)
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2025 Contenders (1-16-25)
1 – Sovereignty (Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini) – Trainer: Bill Mott – Last Ranking (1)
Comments: Pedigree and upside, and this guy has both of those important boxes checked. He advanced in all three juvenile starts and really elevated his game in the Street Sense (G3). He went last-to-first from the outside post and graduated by 5 lengths in the latter race. Bill Mott’s Into Mischief colt got back on the worktab at Payson Park on Dec. 24, went missing for three weeks, and resurfaced with a half-mile breeze in 49.20 (2/16) on Jan. 15.
2 – Patch Adams (Into Mischief – Well Humored, by Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (2)
Comments: This Into Mischief colt ran off the screen as the strong favorite in his second career start under the Twin Spires on Nov. 30. He dusted his rivals by 10+ lengths and completed his seven panel journey in a fast 1:20.77. He is wintering in Florida and sports four works since Dec. 21. He drilled a 5f bullet in 1:01.20 (1/4) at Payson Park on Jan. 6, and fired another 5f bullet (1:01.20) on Jan. 12. He is targeting the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn at 1 1/16 miles on Jan. 25.
3 – Barnes (Into Mischief – All American Dream, by American Pharoah) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (4)
Comments: One of the main things that we want to see from these newly turned sophomores at this early stage is improvement, and this one leads the pack on that score. This $3.2 million purchase got a good education run when racing inside and running down Innovator in his 5.5f debut under the Twin Spires Nov. 27. He has been stabled in California all along and Baffert could have easily found a maiden race on the West Coast, but he decided to ship to Churchill for the debut race. He was back in California after his debut and he worked four times for the Grade 2 San Vicente (Jan. 4). He pressed outside in the latter event and skipped away to win by 5 1/2 lengths. A Derby points race around two turns is on the horizon for this highly regarded colt.
4 – East Avenue (Medaglia d’Oro – Dance Music, by Ghostzapper) – Trainer: Brendan Walsh – Last Ranking (3)
Comments: Last year’s Breeders’ Futurity (G1) hero lost all chance after stumbling badly at the start as the beaten favorite in the BC Juvenile (G1). He is wintering in New Orleans and has breezed twice this year. He went a half-mile in 49.20 (21/66) at Fair Grounds on Jan. 3, and also traveled four furlongs in 49.20 (15/116) on Jan. 9. He is expected to begin his 3-year-old campaign in the Risen Star (G2) on Feb. 15.
5 – Journalism (Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo) – Trainer: Michael McCarthy – Last Ranking (5)
Comments: I like the improvement pattern. He stretched out and graduated at one mile second time out, and he tracked outside and took over in a 3 1/2-length victory over Getaway Car in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) at 1 1/16 miles on Dec. 14. He spiked a temperature after winning the Los Al Futurity and will miss the Robert Lewis (G3) on Feb. 1. It looks like he will get back on the worktab on Jan. 18 or Jan. 19, and the San Felipe (G2) on March 1 might be his next assignment.
6 – Citizen Bull (Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (6)
Comments: He is your likely 2-year-old champ after back-to-back dirt route stakes wins in the American Pharoah (G1) and BC Juvenile (G1). He controlled the pace in his last two wins, and since the Breeders’ Cup, he has worked five times at Santa Anita. He fired a 5f bullet in 59.20 (1/22) on Jan. 3 and went 5f in 1:00.60 (10/32) on Jan. 11. The Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 1 is probably his next target.
7 – Gaming (Game Winner – So Stylish, by Johannesburg) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (7)
Comments: He won the Del Mar Futurity (G1) second time out, and stretched out and was clearly second best in the BC Juvenile (G1). He did not come close to firing his best shot when finishing a flat 3rd of 5 as the beaten chalk in the Los Al Futurity (G2) Dec. 14. He has worked three times since his last start and really picked up the pace with a 5f bullet in 58.60 (1/32) at Santa Anita on Jan. 11. The Grade 3, $1 million Southwest Stakes (1 1/16 miles) at Oaklawn on Jan. 25 might be his next assignment.
8 – Bullard (Gun Runner – Reve d’Amour, by Warrior’s Reward) – Trainer: Michael McCarthy – Last Ranking (8)
Comments: This one rallied from off the pace in his first two dirt sprints wins, and he got a great setup in the Bob Hope (G3) at seven panels Nov. 17. He stalked wide and did not get the right trip or race flow when missing the place by a half-length in the San Vicente (G2). He remains a Derby hopeful but must prove that he can handle two turns. Is he just a talented late running sprinter? We will learn more when he tries a route of ground next time.
9 – Rodriguez (Authentic – Cayala, by Cherokee Run) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (18)
Comments: This $485k yearling purchase moved forward in a big way second time out. He was clearly second best in his 6.5f bow, and he stretched out, set the pace from the inside post, and romped by 7 lengths as the 1-2 favorite at one mile Jan. 4. He ran away from $1.2 million purchase Baeza and 3-time runner-up Rank last time. Baffert’s barn is full of promising sophomores.
10 – Romanesque (Practical Joke – Mony’slittlegracie, by Alphabet Soup) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (10)
Comments: He battled with his stablemate Rodriguez and beat that one by 2 1/4 lengths in his 6.5f bow Nov. 23. Rodriguez came back to romp, and this one was no match for Barnes and he edged Bullard for the place in the San Vicente (G2) on Jan. 4. He has some ability and figures to stretch out in the near future.
11 – Gunmetal (Gun Runner – Classy Dancer, by Speightstown) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (11)
Comments: He stalked from second and edged away from front runner Prime Power to win his 6f bow at Fair Grounds by a length and a quarter on Dec. 26, and the runner-up was 7 1/4 lengths in front of show finisher Fanatical. He was wintering in Florida prior to his bow, and he is back in the Sunshine State. He breezed a half-mile in 49.60 (21/43) at Payson Park on Jan. 11. He goes next in either the Swale Stakes (7f) or the Grade 3 Holy Bull (8.5f) at Gulfstream on Feb. 1.
Next Nine: (12) Chancer McPatrick, (13) Getaway Car, (14) First Resort, (15) Jonathan’s Way, (16) Poster, (17) Madaket Road, (18) Coal Battle, (19) Admiral Dennis, (20) Tappan Street
