The Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn was the most recent Kentucky Derby 2025 points race, and Coal Battle picked up his third Derby prep victory. In this report, I will recap the John Battaglia Memorial and Rebel, update the Derby points standings, and share my latest exceptional 11 Derby contenders.
The next three Kentucky Derby points races are the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream, the Gotham at Aqueduct, and the San Felipe at Santa Anita on Saturday, March 1.
Fountain of Youth field: 1 – Gate to Wire, 2 – Sovereignty, 3 – Burnham Square, 4 – McKellen, 5 – Solid Left, 6 – River Thames, 7 – Neoequos, 8 – Keep It Easy
Gotham field: 1 – Scorching, 2 – Normandy Coast, 3 – Calling Card, 4 – Sacrosanct, 5 – Sand Devil, 6 – Pagoda, 7 – Flood Zone, 8 – McAfee, 9 – Garamond, 10 – My Mitole
In other Derby news, Bullard shipped from California to Arkansas and spiked a temperature and was forced to scratch out of the Rebel Stakes (G2) on Feb. 23. Last year’s Bob Hope (G3) hero needs to recover quickly if he has any hope of making the Derby. He has zero Derby points and has yet to compete in a route race. Due to this setback, he drops off my Derby list to make room for Coal Battle.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Race Recaps
Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds (2-15-25): Magnitude was hustled to the front from post 12 under Ben Curtis and he never gave the others a chance. He opened up at will and dashed away to score by 9 3/4 lengths. The racing world was buzzing after this out of the blue performance, but two days after the Risen Star, Steve Asmussen announced that Magnitude would miss the Triple Crown Series because of a bone chip in his left ankle. Surface switcher Chunk of Gold rallied for the place at 43-1 odds in the Risen Star, and Built just missed the place and was clear of the rest in third. Vassimo, American Promise, Septarian, Jolly Samurai, Render Judgment, Vamos Carlitos, East Avenue, Seattle Road, and Giocoso also ran. Beaten favorite East Avenue flopped without a visible excuse. He chased the pace from second and came up empty in his first start since blowing the break in the BC Juvenile. Fractions: 23.42, 46.92, 1:10.95, 1:36.13, 1:48.85.
Sunland Derby at Sunland Park (2-16-25): This one turned into a match race between Getaway Car and Caldera. The former set the pace under Juan Hernandez and the latter stalked wide from the outside post under Rafael Bejarano. Those two hooked up in the stretch and battled all the way to the wire. Getaway Car got the bob by a nose and recent maiden winner Caldera ran too good to lose for Wayne Lukas and MyRacehorse. The top two finished 9 lengths clear of clear show finisher Touchy. Take Charge Tom, Itsmybirthday, Spenard, Remember Big Jim, and Smash It also ran. Bob Baffert saddled the winner. Caldera seems to have the most upside and is probably worth following. Fractions: 23.31, 46.93, 1:10.99, 1:36.23, 1:42.64.
John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park (2-22-25): This race had Sunland Derby vibes. California Burrito set a pressured pace and Baby Max stalked outside, and those two dominated. California Burrito and Baby Max battled in the stretch and the former prevailed by a determined half-length, and it was another 5 1/2 lengths back to clear show finisher Maximum Promise (uncomfortable start post 9). Banks, Studlydoright, Coming in Hot, Shan, Special Caliber, King of Ashes, Maitre D, and Spirit Rags also ran. Irving Moncada rode the winner for Thomas Drury, Jr. Fractions: 24.50, 49.41, 1:14.03, 1:39.34, 1:45.98. The top three could all move on to the Jeff Ruby Steaks on March 22.
Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn (2-23-25): Madaket Road was intent on the early lead under Irad Ortiz, Jr., and he was up a length after a quarter, 2 lengths after a half, and 2 1/2 lengths through six panels. The three chasers came up empty and the one horse he had to fear was Coal Battle. The latter sat a great trip in 5th and his rider Juan Vargas made a wide move at a crucial stage approaching the final turn. He was patiently handled inside, and Vargas shifted out so he would not get stuck behind tired chasers Innovator, Smoken Wicked, and Speed King. Coal Battle came after Madaket Road and gradually wore that one down to score by a length and a quarter. Madaket Road was the only speed horse around at the end and held the place by a half-length over my top choice and betting favorite Sandman. Mark Casse’s show finisher ran just as well as the top two. He had a good start, sat back as expected, and closed widest of all and was finishing fast, and he galloped out in front. Publisher rallied to finish best of the rest in fourth under Flavien Prat. Tiztastic, Admiral Dennis (bad start), Hypnus, Brereton’s Baytown, Dreaminblue, Speed King, Hot Gunner, Innovator, and Smoken Wicked rounded out the order of finish. Bullard scratched. Lonnie Briey saddled the winner. Fractions: 22.47, 45.72, 1:10.94, 1:36.44, 1:43.01.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Race Results
Iroquois (10-5-3-2-1) – Sept. 14 – Winner: Jonathan’s Way ($4.52)
Champagne (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – Winner: Chancer McPatrick ($3.10)
American Pharoah (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – Citizen Bull ($8.60)
Breeders’ Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – East Avenue ($7.56)
Street Sense (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 27 – Winner: Sovereignty ($4.86)
BC Juvenile (30-15-9-6-3) – Nov. 1 – Winner: Citizen Bull ($33.80)
Ky Jockey Club (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 30 – Winner: First Resort ($14.66)
Remsen (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 7 – Winner: Poster ($11.60)
Springboard Mile (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 13 – Winner: Coal Battle ($15.80)
Los Al Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 14 – Winner: Journalism ($7.60)
Gun Runner (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 21 – Winner: Built ($9.80)
Jerome (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 4 – Winner: Cyclone State ($8.10)
Smarty Jones (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 4 – Winner: Coal Battle ($11.00)
Lecomte (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 18 – Winner: Disco Time ($5.80)
Southwest (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 25 – Winner: Speed King ($30.60)
Holy Bull (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1 – Winner: Burnham Square ($10.60)
Robert Lewis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1 – Winner: Citizen Bull ($3.80)
Withers (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1 – Winner: Captain Cook ($4.90)
Sam F. Davis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 8 – Winner: John Hancock ($7.00)
Risen Star (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 15 – Winner: Magnitude ($88.40)
Sunland Derby (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 16 – Winner: Getaway Car ($4.40)
John Battaglia Memorial (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 22 – Winner: California Burrito ($9.42)
Rebel (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 23 – Winner: Coal Battle ($25.80)
Upcoming Derby Points Races Races:
Fountain of Youth (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1
Gotham (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1
San Felipe (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1
Tampa Bay Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 8
Virginia Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 15
Jeff Ruby Steaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 22
Louisiana Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 22
Arkansas Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 29
Florida Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 29
Blue Grass (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
SA Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
UAE Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
Wood Memorial (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
Lexington (20-10-6-4-2) – April 12
Top 33 Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Leaders (thru 2-24-25)
Coal Battle (70 points)
Citizen Bull (60 points)
Getaway Car (36 points)
Built (35 points)
Madaket Road (31 points)
Sandman (29 points)
Speed King (25 points)
Chunk of Gold (25 points)
Burnham Square (20 points)
Disco Time (20 points)
Captain Cook (20 points)
John Hancock (20 points)
California Burrito (20 points)
Tiztastic (19 points)
Gaming (18 points)
Poster (16 points)
Jonathan’s Way (15 points)
Owen Almighty (15 points)
Ferocious (12 points)
Omaha Omaha (11 points)
Chancer McPatrick (10 points)
East Avenue (10 points)
First Resort (10 points)
Journalism (10 points)
Sovereignty (10 points)
Baby Max (10 points)
Publisher (10 points)
Caldera (10 points)
Cyclone State (10 points)
Vassimo (10 points)
Surfside Moon (10 points)
Tappan Street (10 points)
Rodriguez (10 points)
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2025 Contenders (2-24-25)
1 – Sovereignty (Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini) – Trainer: Bill Mott – Last Ranking (1)
Comments: He has been my top ranked Derby contender all along and he is entered in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream on March 1. He has breezed six times since graduating in the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill last October. Bill Mott’s colt has been working steadily at Payson Park since Jan. 31 and most recently went 5f in 1:02.20 (5/7) on Feb. 23.
2 – Barnes (Into Mischief – All American Dream, by American Pharoah) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (2)
Comments: I cannot wait to see what this $3.2 million colt can do around two turns. He won his first two dirt sprints including a sharp score in the San Vicente (G2) on Jan. 4. He has worked six times since his last including back-to-back 6f works on Feb. 17 (1:12 flat) and Feb. 23 (1:12.20). The San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita on March 1 is a logical target.
3 – Citizen Bull (Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (5)
Comments: Last year’s juvenile champ started his sophomore campaign the right way with an easy front running win in the Robert Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita on Feb. 1. He worked 5f in 1:00.60 (20/53) on Feb. 17 and 6f in 1:13.00 (3/3) on Feb. 23. The Grade 1 SA Derby on April 5 is probably his next assignment.
4 – Journalism (Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo) – Trainer: Michael McCarthy – Last Ranking (4)
Comments: He got sick after winning the Los Al Futurity (G2) and that minor setback forced him to miss the Robert Lewis Stakes. He has been working regularly since Jan. 23. The San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita on March 1 is next and he tuned up for that engagement with a 5f move in 1:01.00 (17/30 on Feb. 22.
5 – Rodriguez (Authentic – Cayala, by Cherokee Run) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (6)
Comments: His romping flat mile maiden win second time out on Jan. 4 was stellar. He ran them off their feet the day, and never stopped chasing his talented stablemate Citizen Bull in a clear runner-up finish in the Robert Lewis Stakes (G3) on Feb. 1. He has worked three times since the Lewis including a 6f bullet in 1:11.80 (1/6), and a relatively fast 5f move in 59.60 (5/77) on Feb. 23. The San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita on March 1 is a possible target.
6 – Sandman (Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Mark Casse – Last Ranking (7)
Comments: He messed up the break and made a sustained run to land the place behind front runner Speed King in the Southwest (G3), and he was probably best that day. He had a clean takeoff in the Rebel (G2) and make a wide stretch run and was gaining on front runner Madaket Road for the runner-up spot, and he galloped out in front. Mark Casse’s colt figures to love added ground in upcoming starts.
7 – Captain Cook (Practical Joke – Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie) – Trainer: Rick Dutrow – Last Ranking (10)
Comments: This one is developing rapidly. He pressed outside as the 1-2 favorite and romped by 9 1/4 lengths in the slop in an extended sprint special weight affair at Aqueduct second time out Dec. 28. He stalked outside as the favorite in the Withers at 1 1/8 miles on Feb. 1 and he turned away Surfside Moon and won by 2 1/4 lengths. He got back to work was a very easy half-mile in 52.00 (167/195) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on Feb. 15, and breezed a half-mile in 48.70 (3/44) on Feb. 24. He is targeting the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct on April 5.
8 – Burnham Square (Liam’s Map, Linda, by Scat Daddy) – Trainer: Ian Wilkes – Last Ranking (11)
Comments: He is on the move for Ian Wilkes. This one shipped to Gulfstream and graduated by 9 lengths as the favorite in a dirt route maiden race on Dec. 28 (blinkers on). My top choice and betting favorite Tappan Street got the jump on him in the Holy Bull (G3) on Feb. 1, but he kept on grinding away in the lane and made the grade by 1 3/4 lengths, and show finisher Burning Glory was 11 lengths behind the top two. He breezed 5f in 1:01.05 (2/13) at Palm Meadows on Feb. 22 and is entered in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream on March 1.
9 – Caldera (Liam’s Map – Send Me On My Way, by Tiznow) – Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas – Last Ranking (unranked)
Comments: This MyRacehorse runner is improving rapidly. He improved his speed ratings in all four starts. He made the lead and graduated by 5 1/2 lengths as the favorite in a special weight dirt route at Oaklawn in his third career start on Jan. 17. I made him my second choice behind more seasoned foe Getaway Car in the Sunland Derby and he gave Baffert’s favorite all he could handle in a nose defeat that day. He stalked wide from the outside post at Sunland Park and was well clear of the show finisher. The Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 22 might be next.
10 – Disco Time (Not This Time – Disco Chick, by Jump Start) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (9)
Comments: He is 3-for-3 and rallied wide over a wet track to capture his route and stakes debut in the Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds on Jan. 18. He has not worked since that race due to an undisclosed small setback and is scheduled to compete in one more Derby prep.
11 – Coal Battle (Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman) – Trainer: Lonnie Briley – Last Ranking (18)
Comments: He is the new Derby points leader after wins in the Remington Springboard Mile, Smarty Jones, and Rebel (G2). The versatile colt closed in the Springboard Mile, stole the Smarty Jones on the front end, and sat in a perfect spot behind four forwardly placed runners and wore down Madaket Road in the Rebel (G2). He is an overachiever and clearly has a nose for the wire, and he is the underdog story of the year so far.
Next Nine: (12) Chancer McPatrick, (13) Tappan Street, (14) Patch Adams, (15) Getaway Car, (16) Madaket Road, (17) Built, (18) Bullard, (19) East Avenue, (20) Romanesque
