We saw two big performances on the road to Kentucky Derby 2025 last weekend. My top ranked Derby contender Sovereignty returned from a layoff and went last-to-first in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, and Journalism smartly ran down race favorite Barnes in a fast renewal of the San Felipe. In this report, I will recap the Gotham, Fountain of Youth, and San Felipe, update the Derby points standings, and share my latest exceptional 11 Derby contenders.
The next Kentucky Derby points race is the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday, March 8.
Tampa Bay Derby field: 1 – Owen Almighty, 2 – Chancer McPatrick, 3 – Hill Road, 4 – Brodeur, 5 – Filoso, 6 – Naughty Rascal, 7 – Patch Adams.
In other Derby news, BC Juvenile runner-up Gaming is targeting the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs on Saturday, March 15. He disappointed in his last two stakes starts and will try to get back on track for trainer Bob Baffert in Virginia.
East Avenue is still on the Derby trail after burning a ton of money in the BC Juvenile and Risen Star Stakes. Brendan Walsh mentioned the LA Derby or Blue Grass as possible targets.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Race Recaps
Grade 2 Fountain of Youth (3-1-25): McKellen and Solid Left scratched and that left a field of six. Neoequos stretched out and set the pace as expected under Irad Ortiz, Jr. River Thames pressed from second, took the lead and looked home free in the lane, but Sovereignty came alive in the stretch and closed with determination to win by a neck. River Thames was clearly second best in a solid effort and Neoquos held off disappointing beaten favorite Burnham Square for show honors. Gate to Wire finished 5th and Keep It Easy was done after six furlongs and eased through the stretch. Junior Alvarado rode the winner for Bill Mott. Fractions: 23.12, 47.07, 1:10.68, 1:36.43, 1:43.12.
Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct (3-1-25): Scorching scratched and nine runners went to the gate in this competitive Derby prep. Flood Zone, making his first start for his new trainer Brad Cox, dueled wide, put away Normandy Coast, and edged away from post time favorite Sand Devil to win by 3 1/4 lengths at 17-1 odds. Sand Devil stumbled at the start, recovered quickly to attend the pace, and was ultimately second best in a solid effort. Chad Brown’s second time starter Garamond sat in midpack from an outer post and was best of the rest in third. My Mitole, McAfee, Pagode, Calling Card, Sacrosanct, and Normandy Coast completed the order of finish. Reylu Gutierrez rode the winner. Fractions: 23.86, 47.97, 1:13.69, 1:26.47, 1:39.62.
Grade 2 San Felipe (3-1-25): Barnes took all the money and he set sail for the early lead under Juan Hernandez. His stablemate Rodriguez chased from second and got to within a half-length at the half-mile mark. Barnes let it out a notch and was clear again, and Rodriguez was under a drive and could not keep pace under Flavien Prat. Journalism tracked the pace inside from fourth, and he tipped out, came after Barnes in the stretch, and went past that one and scored by 1 3/4 lengths under Umberto Rispoli’s smart handling. Barnes was easily second best in a solid effort, and it was 9 1/2 lengths back to clear show finisher Rodriguez. Mellencamp was fourth and Smooth Cruisein trailed. Berlin Wall scratched. Michael McCarthy saddled the razor sharp winner. Fractions: 23.71, 47.31, 1:11.10, 1:36.13, 1:42.24.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Race Results
Iroquois (10-5-3-2-1) – Sept. 14 – Winner: Jonathan’s Way ($4.52)
Champagne (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – Winner: Chancer McPatrick ($3.10)
American Pharoah (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – Winner: Citizen Bull ($8.60)
Breeders’ Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – Winner: East Avenue ($7.56)
Street Sense (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 27 – Winner: Sovereignty ($4.86)
BC Juvenile (30-15-9-6-3) – Nov. 1 – Winner: Citizen Bull ($33.80)
Ky Jockey Club (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 30 – Winner: First Resort ($14.66)
Remsen (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 7 – Winner: Poster ($11.60)
Springboard Mile (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 13 – Winner: Coal Battle ($15.80)
Los Al Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 14 – Winner: Journalism ($7.60)
Gun Runner (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 21 – Winner: Built ($9.80)
Jerome (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 4 – Winner: Cyclone State ($8.10)
Smarty Jones (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 4 – Winner: Coal Battle ($11.00)
Lecomte (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 18 – Winner: Disco Time ($5.80)
Southwest (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 25 – Winner: Speed King ($30.60)
Holy Bull (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1 – Winner: Burnham Square ($10.60)
Robert Lewis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1 – Winner: Citizen Bull ($3.80)
Withers (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1 – Winner: Captain Cook ($4.90)
Sam F. Davis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 8 – Winner: John Hancock ($7.00)
Risen Star (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 15 – Winner: Magnitude ($88.40)
Sunland Derby (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 16 – Winner: Getaway Car ($4.40)
John Battaglia Memorial (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 22 – Winner: California Burrito ($9.42)
Rebel (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 23 – Winner: Coal Battle ($25.80)
Fountain of Youth (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1 – Winner: Sovereignty ($8.40)
Gotham (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1 – Winner: Flood Zone ($37.60)
San Felipe (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1 – Winner: Journalism ($8.20)
Upcoming Derby Points Races Races:
Tampa Bay Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 8
Virginia Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 15
Jeff Ruby Steaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 22
Louisiana Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 22
Arkansas Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 29
Florida Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 29
Blue Grass (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
SA Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
UAE Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
Wood Memorial (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
Lexington (20-10-6-4-2) – April 12
Top 27 Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Leaders (thru 3-5-25)
Coal Battle (70 points)
Citizen Bull, Sovereignty (60 points)
Flood Zone (50 points)
Journalism (47.5 points)
Getaway Car (36 points)
Built (35 points)
Madaket Road (31 points)
Burnham Square (30 points)
Sandman (29 points)
Speed King, Chunk of Gold, River Thames, Sand Devil (25 points)
Rodriguez (21.25 points)
Disco Time, Captain Cook, John Hancock, California Burrito (20 points)
Tiztastic (19 points)
Barnes (18.75 points)
Gaming (18 points)
Poster (16 points)
Jonathan’s Way, Owen Almighty, Neoequos, Garamond (15 points)
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2025 Contenders (3-5-25)
1 – Sovereignty (Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini) – Trainer: Bill Mott – Last Ranking (1)
Comments: He had every right to come up short in the Fountain of Youth (first start in 4+ months). He got sick earlier this winter and had gaps in his workouts, and had four steady moves since Jan. 31. He was not fully cranked and the FOY was just a means to an end. Based on all of that, he could have easily lost, but that was not the case. He sat back and closed with interest to get up late by a neck. I am expecting him to be much better in his final Derby prep. He should have gotten a ton of fitness out of the FOY and the sky is the limit.
2 – Journalism (Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo) – Trainer: Michael McCarthy – Last Ranking (4)
Comments: This exciting Curlin colt is 3-for-3 around two turns and continues to get faster. His Los Al Futurity (G2) win last year was strong and his San Felipe (G2) effort was even better. In the latter race, he had to catch talented $3.2 million Baffert trainee Barnes and he went right on by that one in the stretch and won by a bit less than two lengths. He earned a strong number in the San Felipe and will probably go next in the SA Derby on April 5. Michael McCarthy’s colt is very good and figures to enjoy a mile and an eighth next time.
3 – Citizen Bull (Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (3)
Comments: The 2-year-old champ won all three starts around two turns. His winning streak started in the American Pharaoh (G1), and he followed that up with victories in the BC Juvenile (G1) and Robert Lewis (G3). He went all the way in those three races and has a high cruising speed. He worked 5f in 1:00.60 (9/57) at Santa Anita on March 1 and the Grade 1 SA Derby on April 5 is his next assignment.
4 – Barnes (Into Mischief – All American Dream, by American Pharoah) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (2)
Comments: Some might consider Journalism the early Derby favorite and I would not argue with that. If that is the case, Barnes is not far behind. He won his first two sprints and stretched out, set the pace and put away his stablemate Rodriguez, but could not hold off Journalism in a clear runner-up finish. I can see him moving forward in his second route attempt.
5 – Sandman (Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Mark Casse – Last Ranking (6)
Comments: He might be the 3-year-old without a points race victory. He was an unlucky second in the Southwest (G3) after blowing the break, and he was finishing best of all and galloped out in front in a solid show finish in the Rebel Stakes (G2). Everything is going to come together for this one at some point.
6 – Captain Cook (Practical Joke – Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie) – Trainer: Rick Dutrow – Last Ranking (7)
Comments: The Withers winner is gearing up for a start in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial on April 5. He breezed a half-mile in 50.42 (14/47) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on March 5. One note about the Wood. That has not been a productive Derby prep in recent years. From 2000-2003, three of the four Kentucky Derby winners had their final prep in the Wood Memorial (Funny Cide, Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus). It has been crickets for the Wood ever since.
7 – Coal Battle (Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman) – Trainer: Lonnie Briley – Last Ranking (11)
Comments: He has probably already wrapped up the overachiever of the year award. Not only did he rattle off wins in the Remington Springboard Mile, Smarty Jones, and Rebel Stakes (G2), but he used different tactics in all of those races. He closed in the Springboard Mile, battled through below par splits in the Smarty Jones, and sat behind the top four and got the jump on the deep closers in the Rebel. He is a likable sort with a nose for the wire. He breezed a half-mile in 49.40 (3/18) at Oaklawn on March 5.
8 – Caldera (Liam’s Map – Send Me On My Way, by Tiznow) – Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas – Last Ranking (9)
Comments: He followed up a smart maiden win at Oaklawn in January with a nose defeat in the Sunland Derby on Feb. 16. He breezed an easy half-mile in 50.00 (48/75) at Oaklawn on Feb. 26 and might make his next start in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds on March 22.
9 – Tappan Street (Into Mischief – Virginia Key, Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (13)
Comments: He stalked and scored by 1 3/4 lengths in his solid seven panel debut at Gulfstream late last year. He stretched out and jumped into the stakes ranks in the Holy Bull (G3) at 1 1/16 miles on Feb. 1 and he sat back early, rallied wide, struck the front, and was clear in the lane and briefly looked home free, but Burnham Square came and got him. He lost by 1 3/4 lengths and was 9 1/4 lengths in front of show finisher Burning Glory. He has worked three times since the Holy Bull including a half-mile breeze in 49.80 (33/68) on March 1. He is targeting the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream on March 29.
10 – Burnham Square (Liam’s Map, Linda, by Scat Daddy) – Trainer: Ian Wilkes – Last Ranking (8)
Comments: He looked good running down Tappan Street in the Holy Bull (G3), and rallied mildly to miss the show by a neck in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 1. It seems as though he will enjoy longer distances but you never know until they try it and he needs to get faster to compete with the top runners in this division. The Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 5 might be next.
11 – Patch Adams (Into Mischief – Well Humored, by Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (13)
Comments: He is entered in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) on March 8 and is back on my list. I have always liked this one. He pressed and aired as the strong favorite in his second career start at seven panels at Churchill last fall. His next start was in the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn on Jan. 25 and that was an odd race. This one was the favorite and he bobbled at the start and the other two favorites had their issues as well. Gaming had trouble around the first turn and was virtually eliminated, and Sandman blew the break. Speed King set the pace and Patch Adams made a sustained run from off the pace and flattened out late while just missing the show by a head. He was beaten a length and a half that day. Since the Southwest, he has breezed four times at Payson Park including a 5f bullet in 1:01.40 (1/11) on March 1. I am expecting him to be much closer to the pace in the Tampa Bay Derby if he gets out of the outside gate in good order.
Next Nine: (12) Chancer McPatrick, (13) Disco Time, (14) Getaway Car, (15) Madaket Road, (16) Built, (17) Poster, (18) East Avenue, (19) Rodriguez, (20) Gaming
