The Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby was the lone road to Kentucky Derby 2025 points race last weekend and Owen Almighty stole that event from the inside post. In this report, I will recap the Tampa Bay Derby, update the Derby points standings, and share my latest exceptional 11 Derby contenders.
The next Kentucky Derby points race is the Grade 3, $500,000 Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs on Saturday, March 15.
Virginia Derby field: 1 – Calling Card (15-1), 2 – John Hancock (3-1), 3 – American Promise (12-1), 4 – Omaha Omaha (10-1), 5 – Studlydoright (15-1), 6 – Getaway Car (9-5), 7 – Rapture (5-1), 8 – Authentic Gallop (10-1), 9 – Render Judgment (12-1), 10 – Georgia Magic (30-1).
In other Kentucky Derby news, Gaming spiked a temperature and was not entered in the Virginia Derby. He disappointed in his last two points race starts and is a longshot to make the Kentucky Derby at this stage.
Withers runner-up Surfside Moon recently spiked a temperature and is now questionable for the Wood Memorial.
Patch Adams drops off my list after a flat fourth as the beaten favorite in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby on March 8.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Race Recaps
Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs (3-8-25): Patch Adams was the favorite in this 7-horse Derby points race, but he disappointed just like he did in the Southwest (G3). Owen Almighty scooted to the front from the inside post and slowed things down after a half-mile in 48.16 under Irad Ortiz, Jr. He had plenty left turning for home and kicked away from inside stalker Chancer McPatrick and won by 3 1/2 lengths. Chancer McPatrick, wearing blinkers for the first time, was clearly second best and finished 2 3/4 lengths in front of his stablemate Hill Road. The two Chad Brown runners were making their first outings since the BC Juvenile and both ran solid races. Patch Adams was a wide fourth from the outside post and seemingly has distance limitations. Brodeur, Naughty Rascal, and Filoso also ran. Owen Almighty was using this as a prep for the Pat Day Mile (G2) on the Kentucky Derby undercard. He has now amassed 65 Derby points and his owners want to run in the big race on the first Saturday in May. His trainer Brian Lynch was to play it more conservatively and run in the Pat Day Mile. Derby dreams are powerful and he will probably be in the gate in the big race on the first Saturday in May. Fractions: 23.84, 48.16, 1:12.54, 1:36.46, 1:42.30.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Race Results
Iroquois (10-5-3-2-1) – Sept. 14 – Winner: Jonathan’s Way ($4.52)
Champagne (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – Winner: Chancer McPatrick ($3.10)
American Pharoah (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – Citizen Bull ($8.60)
Breeders’ Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – East Avenue ($7.56)
Street Sense (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 27 – Winner: Sovereignty ($4.86)
BC Juvenile (30-15-9-6-3) – Nov. 1 – Winner: Citizen Bull ($33.80)
Ky Jockey Club (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 30 – Winner: First Resort ($14.66)
Remsen (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 7 – Winner: Poster ($11.60)
Springboard Mile (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 13 – Winner: Coal Battle ($15.80)
Los Al Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 14 – Winner: Journalism ($7.60)
Gun Runner (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 21 – Winner: Built ($9.80)
Jerome (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 4 – Winner: Cyclone State ($8.10)
Smarty Jones (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 4 – Winner: Coal Battle ($11.00)
Lecomte (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 18 – Winner: Disco Time ($5.80)
Southwest (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 25 – Winner: Speed King ($30.60)
Holy Bull (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1 – Winner: Burnham Square ($10.60)
Robert Lewis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1 – Winner: Citizen Bull ($3.80)
Withers (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1 – Winner: Captain Cook ($4.90)
Sam F. Davis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 8 – Winner: John Hancock ($7.00)
Risen Star (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 15 – Winner: Magnitude ($88.40)
Sunland Derby (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 16 – Winner: Getaway Car ($4.40)
John Battaglia Memorial (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 22 – Winner: California Burrito ($9.42)
Rebel (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 23 – Winner: Coal Battle ($25.80)
Fountain of Youth (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1 – Winner: Sovereignty ($8.40)
Gotham (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1 – Winner: Flood Zone ($37.60)
San Felipe (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1 – Winner: Journalism ($8.20)
Tampa Bay Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 8 – Winner: Owen Almighty ($7.80)
Upcoming Derby Points Races Races
Virginia Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 15
Jeff Ruby Steaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 22
Louisiana Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 22
Arkansas Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 29
Florida Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 29
Blue Grass (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
SA Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
UAE Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
Wood Memorial (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
Lexington (20-10-6-4-2) – April 12
Top 28 Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Leaders (thru 3-13-25)
Coal Battle (70 points)
Owen Almighty (65 points)
Citizen Bull, Sovereignty (60 points)
Flood Zone (50 points)
Journalism (47.5 points)
Getaway Car (36 points)
Chancer McPatrick, Built (35 points)
Madaket Road (31 points)
Burnham Square (30 points)
Sandman (29 points)
Speed King, Chunk of Gold, River Thames, Sand Devil (25 points)
Hill Road (24 points)
Rodriguez (21.25 points)
Captain Cook, John Hancock, California Burrito (20 points)
Tiztastic (19 points)
Barnes (18.75 points)
Gaming (18 points)
Poster (16 points)
Jonathan’s Way, Neoequos, Garamond (15 points)
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2025 Contenders (3-13-25)
1 – Sovereignty (Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini) – Trainer: Bill Mott – Last Ranking (1)
Comments: He ended his 2024 campaign with a last-to-first win in the Street Sense (G3), and he started his 2025 season with a smart late running tally in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 1. He should be back on the worktab in the coming days as he prepares for his final Derby prep, which has yet to be finalized. He is wintering in Florida and just won the FOY at Gulsftream, so the Florida Derby (G1) on March 29 makes sense.
2 – Journalism (Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo) – Trainer: Michael McCarthy – Last Ranking (2)
Comments: He is the fastest sophomore in the land after running down Barnes in the Grade 2 San Felipe on March 1. He is scheduled to have a workout at Santa Anita this coming weekend and the Grade 1 SA Derby on April 5 is his next assignment.
3 – Citizen Bull (Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (3)
Comments: The juvenile champ started off 2025 on the right foot with a front running victory in the Grade 3 Robert Lewis Stakes on Feb. 1. They wanted a fresh horse for the spring classics so they skipped the San Felipe (G2) and have been targeting the SA Derby for several weeks. He has worked four times since the Lewis including a 6f move in 1:12.60 (1/2) at Santa Anita on March 8.
4 – Barnes (Into Mischief – All American Dream, by American Pharoah) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (4)
Comments: It took a 108 BSF by Journalism to knock this one off in the San Felipe (G2) on March 1. He set the pace and was clearly second best in his first route start that day, and that was his first career loss after back-to-back sprint wins. The San Vicente (G2) hero got back to work with an easy half-mile move in 50.60 (64/69) on March 10. I am not sure if he is a mile and a quarter horse but he clearly has a ton of ability. His next points race start has yet to be finalized. Bob Baffert likes to ship to Oaklawn and the Arkansas Derby (G1) on March 29 is a possibility.
5 – Sandman (Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Mark Casse – Last Ranking (5)
Comments: I like his steady development. He got a confidence boosting win in an allowance route at Oaklawn late last year, and was a troubled second in the Southwest (G3) and a rallying third in the Rebel (G2). He galloped out in front in the latter event and returned with an easy half-mile breeze in 49.40 (13/28) at Oaklawn on March 11. He is slated to go in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on March 29.
6 – Captain Cook (Practical Joke – Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie) – Trainer: Rick Dutrow – Last Ranking (6)
Comments: The Withers winner skipped the Grade 3 Gotham and has been targeting the Wood Memorial (G2) for several weeks. He sports four half-mile breezes since his last start on Feb. 1 including a 50.09 (16/23) move on March 11. Rick Dutrow is on record as saying that he is ready to go and wished the Wood was this week. He might work two or three more times before the Wood Memorial on April 5.
7 – Coal Battle (Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman) – Trainer: Lonnie Briley – Last Ranking (7)
Comments: He has had the most success in Derby points races with victories in the Remington Springboard Mile, Smarrty Jones, and Rebel Stakes (G2). He breezed a half-mile in 49.40 (3/18) on March 5 and the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn on March 29 is up next for this overachiever.
8 – Caldera (Liam’s Map – Send Me On My Way, by Tiznow) – Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas – Last Ranking (8)
Comments: He finished a nose behind Getaway Car in the Sunland Derby and that runner in the morning line favorite in the Virginia Derby (G3) at Colonial Downs on March 15. He breezed a half-mile in 50.40 (48/75) at Oaklawn on Feb. 26, and he drilled a 5f bullet in 59.20 (1/18) on March 6. The Grade 2 LA Derby at Fair Grounds on March 22 might be next.
9 – Tappan Street (Into Mischief – Virginia Key, Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (9)
Comments: He has only started twice. He won his sprint bow and closed, led, and was clearly second best in the Holy Bull (G3). He has worked four times since his last including a 5f bullet in 1:01.60 (1/20) at Payson Park on March 8. They skipped the FOY and decided to go all in on the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 29.
10 – Burnham Square (Liam’s Map, Linda, by Scat Daddy) – Trainer: Ian Wilkes – Last Ranking (10)
Comments: He looked good from off the pace in the Holy Bull (G3), and did not show the same punch when finishing a flat fourth in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. The Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 5 is probably next and he will need to move forward to make an impact in that event.
11 – Chancer McPatrick (McKinzie – Bernadreamy, by Bernardini) – Trainer: Chad Brown – Last Ranking (13)
Comments: He moves into the top eleven after a respectable effort in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). That was his first start since the BC Juvenile and he exited the latter event with an ankle issue and a quarter crack. He had ankle surgery during the off season and returned with a runner-up finish in the Tampa Bay Derby. He showed improved tactical speed at Tampa Bay Downs but the pace was slow and that was just a prep for the Blue Grass (G1) on April 5. He will probably move up at Keeneland.
Next Nine: (12) Getaway Car, (13) Owen Almighty, (14) Madaket Road, (15) Built, (16) River Thames, (17) Grande, (18) Poster, (19) East Avenue, (20) Baeza
