The Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks and Grade 2 Louisiana Derby were the two road to Kentucky Derby 2025 points races last weekend. Final Gambit won the former and Tiztastic captured the latter and both upset winners rallied from off the pace. In this report, I will recap the Jeff Ruby and LA Derby, update the Derby points standings, and share my latest exceptional 11 Derby contenders.
The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and Grade 1 Florida Derby are the next two Kentucky Derby points races on Saturday, March 29.
Arkansas Derby field: 1 – Brereton’s Baytown (30-1), 2 – First Division (20-1), 3 – Publisher (6-1), 4 – Bestfriend Rocket (20-1), 5 – Speed King (15-1), 6 – Sandman (3-1), 7 – Monet’s Magic (20-1), 8 – Coal Battle (7-2), 9 – Cornucopian (7-5).
Florida Derby field: 1 – Neoequos (10-1), 2 – Cool Intentions (20-1), 3 – Smoken Boy (30-1), 4 – Disruptor (4-1), 5 – Indecisiveness (30-1), 6 – Jimmy’s Dailys (12-1), 7 – Enterdadragon (30-1), 8 – Madaket Road (7-2), 9 – Tappan Street (5-1), 10 – Sovereignty (8-5).
Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Race Recaps
Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park (3-22-25): A dozen horses broke from the gate in this all-weather route and Charlie’s to Blame was the early leader. Innovator and California Burrito chased the pace, and my top choice Baby Max was down inside stalking the pace. It paid to be a deep closer in this spot because the top two finishers rallied from 11th and 12th. Final Gambit, fresh off a local flat mile maiden win, was at the back of the pack for the opening half. He started to gain momentum after that and was under a full head of steam in the lane, and he swept past them all to win by 3 1/2 lengths. Flying Mohawk got up for the place and Maximum Promise sat in midpack and secured the show. Beaten favorite Poster rallied mildly for fourth. Giocoso, Curvino, California Burrito, Innovator, Charlie’s to Blame, Baby Max, He’s Not Joking, and Calling Card rounded out the order of finish. Luan Machado rode the winner for Brad Cox. Fractions: 22.97, 47.91, 1:12.84, 1:37.91,
Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds (3-22-25): The pace figured to be honest and it was with John Hancock showing the way from the inside post, and Yinzer and Furio kept him honest as expected. John Hancock was still in front after six panels and he got a fresh challenge from stalker Built, and Chunk of Gold was in a good stalking spot. None of those horses won. Instead, it was Tiztastic rallying from 9th and clearing the field in the lane to win by 2 1/4 lengths. Chunk of Gold held the place by a half-length over late runner Instant Replay, and it was another 3 1/2 lengths back to a weakening John Hancock. Built flattened out and weakened to 5th. My 14-1 value top choice Vassimo (blinkers on) ran in spots and was a nose behind Built, and Hypnus, a disappointing Caldera, Furio, and Yinzer rounded out the order of finish. Joel Rosario rode the winner for Steve Asmussen. Fractions: 22.99, 46.84, 1:11.03, 1:36.47, 1:56.20.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Race Results
Iroquois (10-5-3-2-1) – Sept. 14 – Winner: Jonathan’s Way ($4.52)
Champagne (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – Winner: Chancer McPatrick ($3.10)
American Pharoah (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – Citizen Bull ($8.60)
Breeders’ Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – East Avenue ($7.56)
Street Sense (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 27 – Winner: Sovereignty ($4.86)
BC Juvenile (30-15-9-6-3) – Nov. 1 – Winner: Citizen Bull ($33.80)
Ky Jockey Club (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 30 – Winner: First Resort ($14.66)
Remsen (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 7 – Winner: Poster ($11.60)
Springboard Mile (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 13 – Winner: Coal Battle ($15.80)
Los Al Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 14 – Winner: Journalism ($7.60)
Gun Runner (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 21 – Winner: Built ($9.80)
Jerome (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 4 – Winner: Cyclone State ($8.10)
Smarty Jones (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 4 – Winner: Coal Battle ($11.00)
Lecomte (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 18 – Winner: Disco Time ($5.80)
Southwest (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 25 – Winner: Speed King ($30.60)
Holy Bull (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1 – Winner: Burnham Square ($10.60)
Robert Lewis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1 – Winner: Citizen Bull ($3.80)
Withers (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1 – Winner: Captain Cook ($4.90)
Sam F. Davis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 8 – Winner: John Hancock ($7.00)
Risen Star (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 15 – Winner: Magnitude ($88.40)
Sunland Derby (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 16 – Winner: Getaway Car ($4.40)
John Battaglia Memorial (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 22 – Winner: California Burrito ($9.42)
Rebel (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 23 – Winner: Coal Battle ($25.80)
Fountain of Youth (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1 – Winner: Sovereignty ($8.40)
Gotham (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1 – Winner: Flood Zone ($37.60)
San Felipe (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1 – Winner: Journalism ($8.20)
Tampa Bay Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 8 – Winner: Owen Almighty ($7.80)
Virginia Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 15 – Winner: American Promise ($16.80)
Jeff Ruby Steaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 22 – Winner: Final Gambit ($32.14)
Louisiana Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 22 – Winner: Tiztastic ($17.00)
Upcoming Derby Points Races Races:
Arkansas Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 29
Florida Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 29
Blue Grass (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
SA Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
UAE Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
Wood Memorial (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5
Lexington (20-10-6-4-2) – April 12
Top 31 Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Leaders (thru 3-28-25)
Tiztastic (119 points)
Final Gambit (100 points)
Chunk of Gold (75 points)
Coal Battle (70 points)
Owen Almighty (65 points)
Citizen Bull, Sovereignty (60 points)
American Promise (55 points)
Flood Zone, Flying Mohawk (50 points)
Journalism (47.5 points)
Getaway Car (46 points)
Built (45 Points)
Chancer McPatrick, John Hancock (35 points)
Maximum Promise (33 points)
Madaket Road, Poster (31 points)
Burnham Square (30 points)
Sandman, Render Judgment (29 points)
Omaha Omaha (26 points)
Speed King, Instant Replay, River Thames, Sand Devil (25 points)
Hill Road (24 points)
Rodriguez (21.25 points)
Captain Cook, California Burrito (20 points)
Barnes (18.75 points)
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2025 Contenders (3-28-25)
1 – Sovereignty (Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini) – Trainer: Bill Mott – Last Ranking (1)
Comments: My longtime top ranked Kentucky Derby contender rallied from off the pace to win his last two Derby points races. He worked twice since winning the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 1 and he drew post 10 and is the 8-5 morning line favorite in the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, March 29.
2 – Journalism (Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo) – Trainer: Michael McCarthy – Last Ranking (2)
Comments: Won all three routes since finishing third in his sprint debut. He ended 2024 with a victory in the Los Al Futurity (G2) and started his current campaign with a fast win in the Grade 2 San Felipe on March 1. He shows two works since his last start including a 5f move in 1:01.40 (18/41) on March 22. He goes next in the Grade 1 SA Derby at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, April 5.
3 – Citizen Bull (Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (3)
Comments: He is gearing up for his battle with Journalism in the SA Derby on April 5. The juvenile champ wired the field in all three route starts and they were all graded events (G1 American Pharoah, G1 BC Juvenile, G3 Robert Lewis). He has worked six times since the Lewis including a 5f move in 59.80 (3/92) on March 23.
4 – Barnes (Into Mischief – All American Dream, by American Pharoah) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (4)
Comments: I am not sure what is going on with this one. The sky was the limit after his first two sprint wins, and he made the lead and was run down by Journalism in a fast renewal of the San Felipe (G2). He has worked three times since his last start including a 5f move in 1:00.00 (6/92) on March 23. His recent works suggest that he is not as sharp as he was earlier this year and his next start is undecided.
5 – Sandman (Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Mark Casse – Last Ranking (5)
Comments: The late runner figures to love a mile and an eighth in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn on Saturday, March 29. He hit the board in the Street Sense (G3), Southwest (G3), and Rebel (G2), and they were all at 1 1/16 miles. He has worked twice since the Rebel including a 5f breeze in 1:03.20 (10/12) on March 19.
6 – Captain Cook (Practical Joke – Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie) – Trainer: Rick Dutrow – Last Ranking (6)
Comments: He graduated second time out late last year, and picked up 20 points in the Withers at Aqueduct on Feb. 1. He has been gearing up for the Wood Memorial (G2) for weeks, and his most recent work was a half-mile breeze in 49.00 (14/79) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on March 26.
7 – Coal Battle (Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman) – Trainer: Lonnie Briley – Last Ranking (7)
Comments: This overachiever has quietly rattled off four straight stakes wins and figures to be one of the Kentucky Derby favorites if he takes down the big prize in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on March 29. He breezed 3f in 37.40 (5/17) on March 23.
8 – Tappan Street (Into Mischief – Virginia Key, Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (9)
Comments: This one is short on experience and long on talent. He followed up his solid seven panel bow with a clear runner-up finish in the Grade 3 Holy Bull second time out. They took a pass on the Fountain of Youth (G2) and he has been targeting the Grade 1 Florida Derby for several weeks. He drilled 5f bullets on March 8 and March 15, and went 5f in 1:01.80 (3/14) on March 22. He drew post 9 and is 5-1 in the Florida Derby.
9 – Burnham Square (Liam’s Map, Linda, by Scat Daddy) – Trainer: Ian Wilkes – Last Ranking (10)
Comments: The late running Holy Bull (G3) winner was a flat fourth in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 1. He worked a half-mile in 49.00 (15/45) at Palm Meadows on March 14, and went 5f in 1:00.70 (3/12) on March 21. The Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 5 in his next assignment.
10 – Chancer McPatrick (McKinzie – Bernadreamy, by Bernardini) – Trainer: Chad Brown – Last Ranking (11)
Comments: He won a pair of Grade 1 races around one turn last year, and returned with an okay second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). He breezed a half-mile in 49.20 (6/61) at Payson Park on March 22. The Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland on April 5 is his next assignment.
11 – Rodriguez (Authentic – Cayala, by Cherokee Run) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (unranked)
Comments: He was on this list earlier in the year and I dropped him after a distant show finish in the San Felipe (G2). He has worked twice since that race and outworked Barnes March 23 and smartly went out another furlong, and he might be returning to top form. They are taking the blinkers off and shipping him out of town for his final Derby prep. Next up is the Blue Grass or Wood Memorial on April 5.
Next Nine: (12) Owen Almighty, (13) Madaket Road, (14) Tiztastic, (15) Chunk of Gold, (16) Final Gambit, (17) River Thames, (18) American Promise, (19) Flying Mohawk, (20) Grande
