It was a busy week on the road to Kentucky Derby 2026 with four points races and Renegade picked up his first career win in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 7, and that was the fastest of the four preps. In this report, I will recap the Southwest, Withers, Sam F. Davis, and Robert Lewis Stakes, update the points standings, and share my exceptional eleven Derby contenders.
I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my Runaway Horse video channel, and through 19 points races, my top choices have 7 wins, 3 runner-up finishes, and 2 show finishes. There are two Derby points races this week, the Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 14, and the Sunland Derby at Sunland Park on Feb. 15.
Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager opens on Friday, Feb. 13 (12PM ET) and closes on Sunday, Feb. 15 (6PM ET).
Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Recaps
Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn (8.5f): Morning line favorite Litmus Test and Bricklin both scratched and that left a dozen runners. Romping debut sprint winner D’code was the post time favorite and he made the lead but could not handle the two turn trip and faded. Soldier N Diplomat stalked wide from an outer post, led, and briefly looked like a winner, but Silent Tactic ($26) was closing from the back of the pack and he ran past them all to win by 3 1/4 lengths. Soldier N Diplomat edged Buetane for the place by a head and it was another nose back to Rancho Santa Fe in fourth. Circle Tap (5th), Liberty National (6th), Sleepingonfreedom (7th), D’code (8th), Spirit of Royal (9th), Strategic Risk (10th), Baytown Dreamer (11th), and Reclamation (eased, walked off) completed the order of finish. Cristian Torres rode the winner for Mark Casse (88 BSF). Fractions: 23.52, 47.52, 1:12.81, 1:38.73, 1:44.85.
Withers at Aqueduct (2-6-26): Talk to Me Jimmy ($26.54) battled on the pace with race favorite Schoolyardsuperman, put that one away, and romped by 11 lengths for Ruben Silvera and Rudy Rodriguez (83 BSF). Todd Pletcher’s maiden Grittiness rallied wide for the place and Ottinho finished a length in front of his stablemate Schoolyardsuperman for the show. Star Sweeper, Fourth and One, and Mailata also ran. Fractions: 23.96, 48.18, 1:12.47, 1:37.88, 1:51.68.
Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs (2-7-26): Wayne’s Law, a 48-1 longshot, sped to the front and fought hard throughout, but he could not hold off race favorite Renegade ($4.40). The latter, making his first start since landing the place in the Remsen (G2) late last year, rallied from off the pace under Irad Ortiz, Jr. and kicked away to win by 3 3/4 lengths. Wayne’s Law was clearly second best and The Puma stalked the pace and was best of the rest in third. Game for It (4th), Epic Desire (5th), Ocelli (6th), Confessional (7th), Dr. Kapur (8th), and Max Capacity (9th) also ran. Todd Pletcher saddled Renegade and this was his first career win (92 BSF). Fractions: 23.80, 48.30, 1:12.81, 1:37.57, 1:43.54.
Grade 3 Robert Lewis at Santa Anita (2-7-26): Early speed rules in one mile races at Santa Anita. Desert Gate appeared to be the one to catch from the inside post but he was off a beat slow and gave away his perceived early advantage. Secured Freedom was stretching out in distance and figured to be forwardly placed but was not sharp out of the gate. The race shape was turned upside down and Intrepido and Plutarch were the major beneficiaries. Those two battled throughout and Plutarch ($10.20) dug in late and scored by 3/4ths of a length. Intrepido was clearly second best and Secured Freedom rallied wide from the outside post to nip Desert Gate for the show. Cherokee Nation (5th), Robusta (6th), and Briggs Armypower (eased, walked off) also ran. Florent Geroux rode the winner for Bob Baffert (90 BSF). Fractions: 23.49, 47.65, 1:11.35, 1:23.69, 1:37.02.
Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Results
Iroquois (10-5-3-2-1) – Sept. 13 – Winner: Spice Runner ($12.38)
Champagne (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Napoleon Solo ($15.94)
American Pharoah (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Intrepido ($19.60)
Breeders’ Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Ted Noffey ($3.84)
Street Sense (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 26 – Winner: Incredibolt ($10.18)
BC Juvenile (30-15-9-6-3) – Oct. 31 – Winner: Ted Noffey ($3.60)
Ky Jockey Club (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 29 – Winner: Further Ado ($3.40)
Remsen (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 6 – Winner: Paladin ($5.76)
Los Al Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 13 – Winner: Litmus Test ($3.20)
Gun Runner (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 20 – Winner: Chip Honcho ($9.80)
Springboard Mile (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 20 – Winner: Express Kid ($71.00)
Jerome (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 3 – Winner: My World ($7.24)
Smarty Jones (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 3 – Winner: Strategic Risk ($7.00)
Lecomte (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 17 – Winner: Golden Tempo ($7.40)
Holy Bull (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 31 – Winner: Nearly ($5.40)
Southwest (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 6 – Winner: Silent Tactic ($26.00)
Withers (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 6 – Winner: Talk to Me Jimmy ($26.54)
Robert Lewis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 7 – Winner: Plutarch ($10.20)
Sam F. Davis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 7 – Winner: Renegade ($4.40)
Risen Star (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 14
Sunland Derby (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 15
John Battaglia Memorial (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 21
Fountain of Youth (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 28
Gotham (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 28
Rebel (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1
Tampa Bay Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 7
San Felipe (50-25-15-10-5) – March 7
Virginia Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 14
Jeff Ruby Steaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 21
Louisiana Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 21
Arkansas Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
Florida Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
UAE Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
Blue Grass (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
SA Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
Wood Memorial (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
Lexington (20-10-6-4-2) – April 11
Top 20 Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Leaders (thru 2-9-26)
Silent Tactic (25 points)
Renegade (25 points)
Intrepido (23 points)
Plutarch (23 points)
Nearly (20 points)
Golden Tempo (20 points)
Talk to Me Jimmy (20 points)
Litmus Test (19 points)
Chip Honcho (14 points)
Soldier N Diplomat (13 points)
Universe (13 points)
Grittiness (11 points)
Napoleon Solo (10 points)
Further Ado (10 points)
Express Kid (10 points)
Strategic Risk (10 points)
My World (10 points)
Paladin (10 points)
Incredibolt (10 points)
Mesquite (10 points)
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2026 Contenders (2-9-26)
1 – PALADIN (Gun Runner – Secret Sigh, by Tapit) – Trainer: Chad Brown – Last Ranking (1)
Comments: He beat Renegade in the Remsen (G2) at 1 1/8 miles last year and was flattered when that runner scored in the Sam F. Davis on Feb. 7. He has worked five times at Payson Park this year including a half-mile breeze in 49.60 (16/56) on Feb. 7. He is entered in the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 14 (1 1/8 miles).
2 – RENEGADE (Into Mischief – Spice is Nice, by Curlin) – Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Last Ranking (2)
Comments: His first start as a sophomore went according to plan. He was the favorite in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay on Feb. 7 and he rallied to score by 3+ lengths. That was his first official victory and he is getting faster. He is expected to make his next start in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn on March 28.
3 – LITMUS TEST (Nyquist – Study Hard, by Malibu Moon) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (3)
Comments: Last year’s Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) hero scratched out of the Southwest. Baffert called an audible and he is now targeting the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita on March 7. He has worked five times at Santa Anita this year including a half-mile move in 48.40 (14/90) on Feb. 7.
4 – GOLDEN TEMPO (Curlin – Carrumba, by Bernardini) – Trainer: Cherie DeVaux – Last Ranking (4)
Comments: Looked good winning from off the pace in the Lecomte (G3) in January. He has worked twice at Fair Grounds since the Lecomte and is entered in the Risen Star (G2) at 1 1/8 miles on Feb. 14.
5 – NEARLY (Not This Time – IB Prospecting, by Mineshaft) – Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Last Ranking (5)
Comments: His last three wins at Gulfstream were impressive and he handled two turns with ease in the Holy Bull (G3) at 1 1/16 miles on Jan. 31. He is skipping the Fountain of Youth (G2) and might make his final Kentucky Derby points race appearance in the Florida Derby (G1) on March 28.
6 – FURTHER ADO (Gun Runner – Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (6)
Comments: Captured his final two starts last year including the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill in November. He has worked three times at Payson Park since Jan. 25 and fired a half-mile bullet in 49.00 (1/56) on Feb. 7. His first target this year is the Tampa Bay Derby on March 7. If all goes well, he will complete his Derby preparations in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland on April 4.
7 – NAPOLEON SOLO (Liam’s Map – Atomic Blonde, by Scat Daddy) – Trainer: Chad Summers – Last Ranking (8)
Comments: He went 2-for-2 as a juvenile in New York including a runaway victory in the Champagne (G1). He returned to the worktab at Palm Meadows on Jan. 14 and has drilled three bullets. His last move was a half-mile in 48.00 (1/19) on Feb. 5. He will begin his 2026 campaign in the Fountain of Youth (Feb. 28), Gotham (Feb. 28), or Tampa Bay Derby (March 7).
8 – BLACKOUT TIME (Not This Time – Beauty Parlor, by Elusive Quality) – Trainer: Ken McPeek – Last Ranking (9)
Comments: Followed up a romping flat mile maiden win as the favorite at Ellis Park was a clear second to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity. He has breezed three times this year including a 5f work in 1:00.80 (9/25) at Fair Grounds on Feb. 5. He is gearing up for a start in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on March 1.
9 – BRANT (Gun Runner – Tynan, by Liam’s Map) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (10)
Comments: BC Juvenile front runner weakened to third in that event. He has worked three times at Santa Anita this year including a 5f move in 1:01.80 (10/20) on Feb. 5. The Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on March 1 might be his first start of the year.
10 – COMMANDMENT (Into Mischief – Sippican Harbor, by Orb) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (11)
Comments: Handy winner of the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on Jan. 3 has worked three times since that flat mile race including a half-mile breeze in 49.80 (17/53) on Feb. 6. He is expected to make his first start in a points race in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 28.
11 – PLUTARCH (Into Mischief – Stellar Wind, by Curlin) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (unranked)
Comments: He ran well in all six starts on turf and dirt. His maiden win at 1 1/8 miles on turf was strong (November 2025), and he returned to dirt, attended the pace at a speed friendly distance in the Robert Lewis (G3) at one mile on Feb. 7, and he won by 3/4ths of a length over American Pharoah (G1) hero Intrepido. Baffert’s colt is versatile and on the upswing, and he has already won at nine panels albeit on turf. Dam Stellar Wind went 10-for-17 and won six Grade 1 routes. No definitive word on his next start. The San Felipe (G2) on March 7 is the next Kentucky Derby prep at Santa Anita, followed by the SA Derby (G1) on April 4.
Next Nine: (12) Silent Tactic, (13) Intrepido, (14) So Happy, (15) Pyromancer, (16) Bravaro, (17) Canaletto, (18) Potente, (19) Iron Honor, (20) Englishman
