The Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby, and UAE Derby were the latest road to Kentucky Derby 2026 prep races and Renegade, Commandment, and Wonder Dean punched their tickets to Louisville. In this report, I will recap the Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby, and UAE Derby, update the points standings, and share my exceptional eleven Derby contenders.
I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my Runaway Horse video channel, and through 33 points races, my top choices have 13 wins, 4 runner-up finishes, and 6 show finishes. The road to the Derby continues with Blue Grass (G1), SA Derby (G1), and Wood Memorial (G2) on April 4.
Wood Memorial field (race 12): 1 – Napoleon Solo, 2 – Talk to Me Jimmy, 3 – Right to Party, 4 – Steel, 5 – Ocelli, 6 – Minorinconvenience, 7 – Albus, 8 – Courting, 9 – Bravaro, 10 – Red Zone Runner, 11 – Ottinho, 12 – Buetane, 13 – Iron Honor.
My longtime top ranked Derby contender Paladin was injured after a workout in Florida on March 28 and is off the Triple Crown trail. He suffered a non-displaced condylar fracture of his right front ankle and will need surgery. Two screws will be inserted and he will miss all of the big targets this summer and fall.
More bad news for Chad Brown. Tampa Bay Derby (G3) show finisher Canaletto is injured and out of action until fall.
Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Recaps
Grade 2 UAE Derby at Meydan (3-28-26): This one was cut and dry. Six Speed controlled the pace and had a clear lead. Wonder Dean emerged from the pack and came after the leader, and he had more stamina in the stretch and won by 2 1/2 lengths. Six Speed was clearly second best and my top choice Pyromancer never had a chance. He raced wide throughout and was best of the rest in third. The winner and runner-up might travel to Louisville to run in the Kentucky Derby.
Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park (3-28-26): Wayne’s Law made the running and he was going slow up front. Considering that Nearly went 22.82, 45.96, 1:10.32 in his Holy Bull (G3) romp on Jan. 31, you have to question the tactics in this race for the betting favorite. His rider John Velazquez was content to track outside in second, and he had a short lead after six panels but it would not last. This was a tightly bunched group of six and the early runners gave away their advantage. This one turned into a sprint for home and The Puma struck the front and Commandment came after him, and Chef Wallabee was on the move as well. It was a blanket finish and Commandment ($5.80) won by a nose over The Puma, and Chief Wallabee was another half-length back in third. Nearly weakened to fourth in a disappointing effort as the beaten chalk. Wayne’s Law weakened to 5th and Timeless Victory trailed. Albus, Redland Rebels, and Gregarious scratched. Flavien Prat rode the winner for Brad Cox and the BSF came back 100. For comparison purposes, Commandment and Chief Wallabee finished 1-2 in the FOY (G2) and the BSF was 101. Fractions: 24.10, 48.80, 1:13.00, 1:37.32, 1:49.99.
Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park (3-28-26): 27-1 longshot Redland Rebels made the running as expected. Bricklin chased from second and Blackout Time tracked from third, but this race belonged to the patient runners. Silent Tactic sat in midpack and forged to the front, but Renegade ($4) closed like a freight train and won by 4 lengths under Irad Ortiz, Jr. Silent Tactic was clearly second best and second timer Taptastic stalked the pace and was best of the rest in third. Bricklin weakened to fourth and was followed by Blackout Time (5th), Redland Rebels (6th), Litmus Test (7th), and Exosome (8th). Napoleon Solo scratched. Todd Pletcher saddled the winner and he was assigned a BSF of 98. Fractions: 23.25, 47.80, 1:12.52, 1:37.86, 1:49.70.
Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Results
Iroquois (10-5-3-2-1) – Sept. 13 – Winner: Spice Runner ($12.38)
Champagne (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Napoleon Solo ($15.94)
American Pharoah (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Intrepido ($19.60)
Breeders’ Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Ted Noffey ($3.84)
Street Sense (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 26 – Winner: Incredibolt ($10.18)
BC Juvenile (30-15-9-6-3) – Oct. 31 – Winner: Ted Noffey ($3.60)
Ky Jockey Club (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 29 – Winner: Further Ado ($3.40)
Remsen (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 6 – Winner: Paladin ($5.76)
Los Al Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 13 – Winner: Litmus Test ($3.20)
Gun Runner (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 20 – Winner: Chip Honcho ($9.80)
Springboard Mile (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 20 – Winner: Express Kid ($71.00)
Jerome (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 3 – Winner: My World ($7.24)
Smarty Jones (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 3 – Winner: Strategic Risk ($7.00)
Lecomte (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 17 – Winner: Golden Tempo ($7.40)
Holy Bull (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 31 – Winner: Nearly ($5.40)
Southwest (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 6 – Winner: Silent Tactic ($26.00)
Withers (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 6 – Winner: Talk to Me Jimmy ($26.54)
Robert Lewis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 7 – Winner: Plutarch ($10.20)
Sam F. Davis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 7 – Winner: Renegade ($4.40)
Risen Star (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 14 – Winner: Paladin ($3.40)
Sunland Derby (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 15 – Winner: Pavlovian ($12.20)
John Battaglia Memorial (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 21 – Winner: Great White ($32.32)
Fountain of Youth (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 28 – Winner: Commandment ($6.80)
Gotham (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 28 – Winner: Iron Honor ($3.88)
Rebel (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1 – Winner: Class President ($19.00)
Tampa Bay Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 7 – Winner: The Puma ($16.80)
San Felipe (50-25-15-10-5) – March 7 – Winner: Potente ($18.20)
Virginia Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 14 – Winner: Incredibolt ($14.40)
Jeff Ruby Steaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 21 – Winner: Fulleffort ($5.82)
Louisiana Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 21 – Winner: Emerging Market ($6.00)
Arkansas Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28 – Winner: Renegade ($4.00)
Florida Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28 – Winner: Commandment ($5.80)
UAE Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28 – Winner: Wonder Dean
Blue Grass (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
SA Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
Wood Memorial (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
Lexington (20-10-6-4-2) – April 11
Top 25 Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Leaders (thru 3-29-26)
1 Commandment (150 points)
2 Renegade (125 points)
3 Fulleffort (110 points)
4 The Puma (106 points)
5 Silent Tactic (100 points)
6 Emerging Market (100 points)
7 Pavlovian (70 points)
8 Incredibolt (60 points)
9 Golden Tempo (60 points)
10 Class President (50 points)
11 Stark Contrast (50 points)
12 Chief Wallabee (50 points)
13 Iron Honor (50 points)
14 Potente (50 points)
15 Chip Honcho (49 points)
16 Universe (38 points)
17 Grittiness (36 points)
18 Further Ado (35 points)
19 Nearly (35 points)
20 Litmus Test (34 points)
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21 Blackout Time (25 points)
22 Robusta (25 points)
23 Intrepido (23 points)
24 Bricklin (21 points)
25 Express Kid (20 points)
Mideast Road to Derby Qualifier (UAE Derby): Wonder Dean (1st), Six Speed (2nd)
Two horses can qualify on the Mideast road to the Derby and Wonder Dean and Six Speed are both expected to accept invitations to the Ky Derby.
Japan Road to Derby Qualifier (Fukuryu Stakes): Danon Bourbon (1st), Don Erectus (2nd)
Only one horse can qualify on the Japan road to the Derby and Danon Bourbon and Don Erectus are tied with 40 points. Don Erectus wins the tiebreaker on lifetime earnings but is not nominated to the Triple Crown series and is not expected to be made eligible. That development means that Danon Bourbon gets the invitation to run in the Ky Derby and his connections are considering a trip expected to Louisville.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2026 Contenders (3-29-26)
1 – RENEGADE (Into Mischief – Spice is Nice, by Curlin) – Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Last Ranking (2)
Comments: He was ranked fourth when I first started my Derby list in 2025, and he has been my second ranked Derby contender since February 3. My longtime top ranked Derby contender Paladin was injured on March 28 and is off the Triple Crown trail, and this one ascends to the top of my list following a strong late running victory in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn on March 28 (98 BSF). He was strong from off the pace in both of his Derby preps this year and figures to enjoy a mile and a quarter.
2 – COMMANDMENT (Into Mischief – Sippican Harbor, by Orb) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (4)
Comments: He was fourth in his career debut at Keeneland last fall and he won all four starts since including the Mucho Macho Man, FOY (G2), and Florida Derby (G1). He received a 100 BSF for his narrow victory over The Puma and Chief Wallabee at a mile and an eighth on March 28. The versatile colt can be placed anywhere and that is a valuable asset in a race like the Kentucky Derby.
3 – CHIEF WALLABEE (Constitution – A La Lucie by Medaglia d’Oro) – Trainer: Bill Mott – Last Ranking (5)
Comments: He is one of the unraced 2-year-olds making a splash this year. He beat The Puma in his bow and was a good second in the FOY (G2) and a close third in the Florida Derby (G1). He galloped out with energy in the latter event and that gives Bill Mott confidence that he will handle a mille and a quarter.
4 – THE PUMA (Essential Quality – Eve of War, by Declaration of War) – Trainer: Gustavo Delgado – Last Ranking (16)
Comments: He comes from the same outfit that brought us 2023 Kentucky Derby hero Mage and they share similarities. Prior to winning the Derby, Mage was first in his January debut, fourth in the FOY (G2), and second in the Florida Derby (G1). The Puma was second in his January bow, third in the Sam F. Davis, first in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), and second in the Florida Derby (G1). He is lightly raced and on the upswing.
5 – EMERGING MARKET (Candy Ride – Wild Empress, by Empire Maker) – Trainer: Chad Brown – Last Ranking (12)
Comments: Talk about lightly raced. He was fast in his winning dirt route debut at Tampa Bay on Feb. 7, and he was thrown right into the LA Derby (G2) second time out and won a hard fought stretch battle over Pavlovian. Chad Brown does not run horses lacking experience in the Kentucky Derby, but this one is very professional and nothing seems to bother him. He is all upside.
6 – FULLEFFORT (Liam’s Map – Callmethesqueeze, by Awesome Again) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (13)
Comments: I picked him on top in the Battaglia Memorial and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). He rallied to miss by a neck in the former at 1/16 miles, and the nine furlong distance made all the difference in the Jeff Ruby. Brad Cox’s late runner will switch surfaces in Louisville.
7 – GOLDEN TEMPO (Curlin – Carrumba, by Bernardini) – Trainer: Cherie DeVaux – Last Ranking (6)
Comments: This colt has plenty of stamina but his lack of positional speed is a concern. He developed nicely at Fair Grounds this winter with a win in the Lecomte (G3) and show finishes in the Risen Star (G2) and LA Derby (G2). He added blinkers last time but was squeezed at the start, and he is slowly getting faster.
8 – REAGAN’S HONOR (Honor A. P. – Rutile, by Medaglia d’Oro) – Trainer: Cherie DeVaux – Last Ranking (7)
Comments: His task in the upcoming Blue Grass (G1) became easier following Paladin’s recent injury. This one looked sharp in his two wins at the Fair Grounds and he worked four times in March including a half-mile breeze in 48.00 (11/64) at Keeneland on March 28.
9 – CHEROKEE NATION (Not This Time – Believe In Charlie, by Indian Charlie) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (8)
Comments: Scintillating flat mile maiden win at Santa Anita on Feb. 27 put him back in the Derby conversation. He has worked three times since his February victory including a 5f move in 1:00.80 (10/12) on March 26.
10 – SILENT TACTIC (Tacitus – Magical Sign, by Gun Runner) – Trainer: Mark Casse – Last Ranking (11)
Comments: He had a productive winter in Arkansas with a place finish in the Smarty Jones, a smart victory in the Southwest (G3), and runner-up finishes in the Rebel (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1). Mark Casse’s quality closer was part of the exacta in each of his six route races.
11 – FURTHER ADO (Gun Runner – Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (9)
Comments: Tampa Bay Derby (G3) runner-up was flattered when winner The Puma returned to miss by a nose in the Florida Derby (G1). This one has breezed twice at Payson Park since his last start including a 5f bullet in 1:01.60 (1/7) on March 28. He is gearing up for the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland on April 4, and he graduated by 20 lengths in a special weight dirt route at Keeneland last fall.
Next Nine: (12) Class President, (13) Potente, (14) Intrepido, (15) Incredibolt, (16) Iron Honor, (17) Pavlovian, (18) Wonder Dean, (19) Six Speed, (20) Danon Bourbon
