Check out my Thursday (4-16-26) Keeneland Race 7 analysis below.
KEE 7 (Alw-130k/2x, 4&up, 1 1/2 miles turf) – Post Time 4:12 PM ET
Primary – #6 COILED, #8 Chapman’s Peak
Secondary – #2 Carcano, #9 Concord Green
Horse Comments:
#6 Coiled (7-2) can run all day. He put blinkers back on and rallied to win at 1 1/2 miles on turf September 2025 and the show finisher was a next-out winner. He rallied for the place at two miles on turf in the H. Allen Jerkens late last year, and closed for third when last seen in an all-weather affair at a mile and a quarter at TP Feb. 20. Flavien Prat hop aboard for quality conditioner Arnaud Delacour and he should make his presence felt in the lane.
#8 Chapman’s Peak (9-5) raced wide from post 11 and was up the track in his turf route bow, and he was an even 4th of 11 at 9T second time out. He rallied for the show from post 10 as the beaten favorite in the slop in July (off the turf). He returned to turf, sat in midpack, and graduated by a length at KD in September (runner-up next-out winner). He controlled the pace and easily went all the way at 9.5T at KEE in October. I picked him on top in the G3 Commonwealth Turf at CD and he pressed, led, and missed by a head at 9-2 odds in November. He was the 3-2 favorite in the Tropical Park Turf and he sat in midpack, raced wide, and was forced out, and split a 10-horse field in his final start of 2025. He went back on lasix and finished an okay 3rd of 12 at 8.5T Feb. 28. He won his two longest turf races last year and reconnects with his winning rider Irad Ortiz, Jr.
#2 Carcano (12-1) ran well in his last three longest starts at a mile and a quarter. Luis Saez is his new rider and he can stalk or close, and he might spice up the exotics if he handles the added ground of this race.
#9 Concord Green (9-2) added blinkers and closed for the win at this distance on turf March 7. He earned a decent number last time and can compete with these if able to run two alike.
Wagers:
#6 to win
Exacta box 6-8
Trifecta 6-8/2-6-8-9/2-6-8-9
April 2026 Bettor Bet$ Free Pick Winners
April 2 – Charlie’s Curlin ($5.60)
April 3 – Joint Venture ($3.60)
April 4 – Meaning ($3.80)
April 8 – Dresden Row ($6.58), Trifecta ($67.28)
April 11 – West End Kid ($5.72), Exacta ($10.58), Trifecta ($29.28)
April 12 – In Our Time ($12.88)
April 13 – Play the Gray ($8.20)
April 15 – Rothko/Coalmoon Exacta ($42.26)
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