Check out my Saturday (5-2-26) Churchill Downs Race 8 analysis below.
CD 8 (G2 Pat Day Mile, 8f) – Post Time 3:23 PM ET
Primary – #6 CRUDE VELOCITY, #1 Englishman
Secondary – #7 Crown the Buckeye, #5 Stop the Car, #4 Secured Freedom
Horse Comments:
#6 Crude Velocity (5-2) might be Bob Baffert’s best 3-year-old and a start in the Preakness is possible if he wins this race impressively. He rallied from the inside post to beat next-out winner Civil Liberty by a neck at 10-1 odds in his 6.5f bow. He removed blinkers and stalked and romped by 5+ lengths as the 1-2 favorite vs. older OC sprinters April 4 and he earned a BSF of 100 that day. Baffert’s $250k Beau Liam colt has Lemon Drop Kid on the bottom of the pedigree so the added distance should not be a problem. He sports two bullets for this including a 1:11 flat move at six panels April 24.
#1 Englishman (3-1) has done nothing wrong for Cherie DeVaux. He made the running and aired over a next-out winner at 2-1 odds in his local seven panel bow September 2025. He was 10 cents on the dollar in his 6f return at KEE March 19 and got loose early and dominated his competition by 7+ lengths (first lasix). He goes off lasix and shows a pair of KEE bullets for this, and the $400k Maxfield colt should be all over the pace from the inside post under his regular rider Jose Ortiz.
#7 Crown the Buckeye (6-1) battled on the pace and was clearly second best in the G3 Gotham at one mile (one turn) Feb. 28. He is 2-for-3 with a runner-up finish in races around one turn and his new rider Flavien Prat should have early-pressing options from post 7.
#5 Stop the Car (20-1) won his first two starts around one turn including a local OC affair at this trip. He had outer posts (9, 12) in his last two Derby points races around two turns and ended up 7th and 4th. He reconnects with Gaffalione and Tyler is 2-for-2 with him. He can spice up the exotics.
#4 Secured Freedom (20-1) looked good graduating at 6.5f second time out and raced evenly when finishing third in the G3 Robert Lewis and fourth in the G2 San Felipe in his last pair. Cutting back in distance is a positive and I can see him stalking the pace and getting a piece of the purse under his new rider John Velazquez.
Wagers:
#6 to win
Exacta 6-1
Trifecta 1-6/1-4-5-6-7/4-5
Superfecta 6/1-7/1-4-5-7/1-4-5-7
Super High 5: 1-6/1-6/4-5-7/4-5-7/4-5-7
Recent 2026 Bettor Bet$ Free Pick Winners
April 11 – West End Kid ($5.72), Exacta ($10.58), Trifecta ($29.28)
April 12 – In Our Time ($12.88)
April 13 – Play the Gray ($8.20)
April 15 – Rothko/Coalmoon Exacta ($42.26)
April 16 – Chapman’s Peak/Concord Green/Carcano Trifecta ($232.24)
April 21 – Black Rose/Quality View Exacta ($41.80)
April 22 – Evanescence/Beyond Belief Exacta ($11.32), Trifecta ($19.12)
April 28 – U Devil You ($9.26)
April 30 – Maximum Bourbon ($3.92)
May 1 – On Time Girl ($5.92), Exacta ($47.68)
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