Check out my Santa Anita Handicap (race 8) analysis for 3-3-24 below.
SA 8 (G1 SA Handicap. 10f)
Primary – #2 HIGHLAND FALLS, #5 Newgate
Secondary – #7 Newgrange, #3 Mixto
Wagers: #2 to win, Trifecta key 2/3-5-7, Trifecta 2-5-7/2-5-7/3, Superfecta 2-5/2-5/3-7/3-7
Comments: #2 Highland Falls (3-1) is 3-for-4 with a show finish for Brad Cox, and he still has upside. This conditioner saddled Fair Grounds shipper Warrant to a runner-up finish as my top choice in this race in 2022. This colt owns quality late pace ratings and Geroux is 2-for-2 with him. His sire Curlin was a multiple G1 winner and dam Round Pond won multiple graded races including the BC Distaff. He probably fits with these and might offer a hint of value. #5 Newgate (4-1) should be coming up to a top effort in his third start after a long layoff. He needed his return vs. crack sprinter Big City Lights, and he stalked the pace and finished a solid second as the beaten favorite in the San Pasqual (G2) at a mile and an eighth last time. Newgrange got loose through slow splits last time and this one was only beaten a length. He reconnects with his winning rider Dettori and he should work out a decent tactical trip. #7 Newgrange (5-2) has some things to like but I am not sure about the 1 1/4 miles distance. He was in similar form and came up empty in last year’s Big ‘Cap after winning the San Pasqual (G2). He is 5-for-7 at SA and won the San Antonio (G2) and San Pasqual (G2) in his last two local stakes starts. He should be forwardly placed from the outside post under Victor Espinoza. #3 Mixto (6-1) finally picked up his maiden win in his seventh career start in a flat mile race at DMR last November. He rallied for the place in the G2 San Antonio in his first start vs. winners, and showed decent stretch energy in a show finish in the San Pasqual last time. Fresu rides him well and he wins races with O’Neill, and this one should be within striking range throughout. He is just 1-for-9 and win would be a bit of a surprise, but I can see him hitting the board at a price.
Recent Free Pick Winners
Feb. 10 – Endlessly ($3.40)
Feb. 11 – Cali Bay ($4.20)
Feb. 16 – Prancingthroughparis ($14.20), Trifecta ($397.40)
Feb. 18 – Firsttimeinforever ($6.00)
Feb. 24 – Johnny Drama ($4.00), Trifecta ($75.20)
Feb. 25 – Clements Ride ($3.20), Trifecta ($49.60)
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