Check out my Saturday (7-6-24) Horseshoe Indianapolis Race 12 analysis below.
IND 12 (G3 Indiana Derby, 3yo, 8.5f) – Post Time 6:41pm EDT
Primary – #2 STRONGHOLD, #7 E J Won the Cup
Secondary – #8 Dragoon Guard, #3 Real Men Violin, #1 Woodcourt
Horse Comments:
#2 Stronghold (2-1) stalked strong fractions from post 17 before weakening to 7th of 20 in a solid enough effort in the G1 KY Derby on May 4. He was 35-1 in the Derby and forwardly placed runners were not around at the end, so it was a more than respectable performance. He fired exacta shots in his first six starts including wins in the G3 Sunland Derby and G1 SA Derby earlier this year. Antonio Fresu rides him well and I like his tactical speed. They were originally targeting the G1 Haskell, but he drilled a strong bullet on June 30 and he was doing so well that they wanted to run him as soon as possible.
#7 E J Won the Cup (5-2) stretched out and elevated his game with a maiden win at Santa Anita and a stakes victory in the Turf Paradise Derby. He was third as a 23-1 longshot in the SA Derby (G1), and bounced back with a win in the Texas Derby on May 27. I am concerned that he was on lasix in all three wins and will not be able to use that medication in this spot. Mike Smith booted home Doug O’Neill’s early-pressing colt twice.
#8 Dragoon Guard (7-2) battled on the pace and was second best in his extended sprint bow last September, and winner Otto the Conqueror has won three races since including the Remington Springboard Mile. He added lasix and rolled to a big maiden win as the chalk at seven panels in his April 21 return, and wired the field in the slop as the favorite at one mile on June 2. He should attend the pace from the outside post for the productive Geroux/Cox team.
#3 Real Men Violin (8-1) is 1-for-10 with seven minor awards. He hit he board in three of five stakes starts and can rally for a share.
#1 Woodcourt (10-1) figures to save ground behind the speed. He has been freshened for this and might be able to hit the board if he duplicates his G2 Rebel Stakes number.
Wagers:
#2 to win
Trifecta 2-7-8/1-3/1-2-3-7-8
Trifecta 2-7-8/1-2-3-7-8/1-3
Recent 2024 Bettor Bet$ Free Pick Winners
June 24 – Quick Quick Whit ($7.40), Exacta ($17.40), Trifecta ($34.60)
June 25 – Carillo ($4.20)
June 27 – Channel Fury ($2.80), Trifecta ($29.80)
June 28 – Reagan’s Flame/Zadorsky Exacta ($19.46)
June 30 – Vodka With a Twist/So There She Was Exacta ($13.94)
July 4 – Emery ($3.20)
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