Check out my Monday (7-22-24) Ellis Park Race 8 analysis below.
Ellis Park 8 (Twin Bridges, f&m, 6f) – Post Time 4:19pm EDT
Primary – #8 NON VIOLENCE, #4 Your So Sillea
Secondary – #1 Amaretti, #6 Swall
Horse Comments:
#8 Non Violence (5-1) can compete for the win if she rediscovers her sharp 2023 form. Last year, she cruised to a pair of big wins and was second in this event. She broke slow and never got seriously involved in her needed return in a stakes race at Lone Star on May 27. That was not a great effort but I am willing to give her the benefit of the doubt. She has worked five times since that race and her new rider Jaime Torres is clicking at a 28% rate at Ellis Park. Early-pressing types from outer posts perform well in local races at this distance, and she has won at this course and distance before.
#4 Your So Sillea (9-5) is on top of her game for Phil Sims. She pressed, opened up, and missed by a half-length in a clear runner-up finish on May 24, and pressed from the outside post, got clear, and held on by a neck on June 16. She likes this distance (9 3-4-0) but is 0-for-3 at Ellis Park. She might be in front turning for home but don’t count your money until she crosses the line. The late stages can get a bit dicey for her.
#1 Amaretti (3-1) was part of the exacta in all five sprints on a fast track. She exits a sharp optional-claiming win and figures to attempt a wire job under 28% local rider Cristian Torres.
#6 Swall (6-1) chased outside, led, and settled for the place in a solid effort in the Skipat in the mud at Pimlico on May 18. The all-weather sprint specialist gets the services of Martin Garcia and he is riding well at the current stand.
Wagers:
#8 to win
Exacta 1-6-8/4
Trifecta 4-8/1-4-6-8/1-4-6-8
July 2024 Bettor Bet$ Free Pick Winners
July 4 – Emery ($3.20)
July 12 – Miss Justify ($7.50)
July 13 – Whitebeam ($11.60)
July 14 – Star of Mystery ($3.30), Trifecta ($22.60)
July 16 – Toolcat ($14.20), Trifecta ($74.40)
July 18 – The Big Torpedo/Courtly Banker/Fedelightcayut Trifecta ($27.60)
July 19 – Unmatched Wisdom ($2.80)
July 20 – Formidable Man/Guy Named Joe Quinella ($20.40)
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