The entire Triple Crown Series this year was strange. Mystik Dan sat a dream inside trip behind a fast pace in the Kentucky Derby, and he scooted up the rail, opened up a clear lead, and just lasted over Sierra Leone and Forever Young in a 3-horse blanket finish. There is little doubt that longshot Mystik Dan ran the third best race in the Derby. Sierra Leone was on his way to victory before lugging in and bothering Forever Young.
In the Preakness Stakes, strong favorite Muth got sick the week of the race and had to scratch. Wet weather in Baltimore left the main track muddy and speed favoring, and when Frankie Dettori aboard expected pacesetter Imagination decided to concede the early lead to Seize the Grey, it was game over. The Arrogate colt wired the field at 9-1 odds at Pimlico and it was an improbable victory to say the least.
The Belmont Stakes on Saturday featured Derby winner Mystik Dan and Preakness hero Seize the Grey, but those two were nowhere to be seen when the real running began. Seize the Grey set the pace but had no answer when confronted by Dornoch, and the latter had all of the breaks go his way. The track was speed favoring for the entirety of the Belmont Stakes Festival at Saratoga, and Mindframe got past Dornoch but lost focus and wandered in the stretch under Irad Ortiz Jr. Beaten favorite Sierra Leone stumbled at the start and was bounced around after that. He started gathering momentum from the back of the pack and was briefly thrown off when Protective bumped him. He kept on closing in the lane but ran out of real estate in a clear show finish. Just like the Derby, the winner of the Belmont ran the third best race. You could easily make a case that Mindframe or Sierra Leone ran the best overall race at Saratoga.
What’s next
Dornoch: The Belmont winner rediscovered his sharp early-pressing form on Saturday. He was one of the better juveniles in the land last year. He rode a wet, speed favoring track to a nose victory over late runner Sierra Leone in the Remsen (G2) in December. Multiple horses scratched and he controlled the pace against four overmatched rivals in the Fountain of Youth (G2) in his first start as a sophomore. He stalked the pace and finished a flat fourth in the Blue Grass (G1), and had a troubled trip when splitting a 20-horse field in the Kentucky Derby. The Grade 1 Travers is his main summer target, but he is also being considered for the Haskell (G1) at Monmouth Park on July 20.
Mindframe: He probably should have won the Belmont Stakes in his third lifetime start, and it was his inexperience that cost him the race. Dornoch was battle-tested and Todd Pletcher’s light raced runner had things easy in both career starts. He looked like he was on his way to victory in the stretch but raced erratically in the lane under Irad Ortiz Jr. All options are on the table including the Haskell and Jim Dandy. Pletcher and Repole also have Fierceness and they will not race against each other. At this point, Fierceness is targeting the Haskell but that race is not until July 20 so things can change.
Sierra Leone: He could have easily won the Derby and Belmont under different circumstances. The Derby definitely got away from him. His lugging in antics in the stretch cost him the race. They changed his bit and switched to jockey Flavien Prat in the Belmont, but he could not quite overcome a troubled beginning and speed biased surface. The Travers is his major summer goal, and he could train up to that race or prep in the Jim Dandy.
Honor Marie: He was 8th in the Derby and 4th in the Belmont. He will be stabled at Saratoga this summer. Races like the Jim Dandy and Travers are in play. The deep closer has not been able to get there since the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill last November.
Antiquarian: Came out of his 5th place finish in the Belmont in good order. The Jim Dandy at Saratoga on July 27 is a possible target.
Mystik Dan: The only horse to compete in all three Triple Crown Series races this year. He was completely out of gas in the Belmont, and was examined after the race and had some mucus in his lungs. The Travers is his next assignment.
Seize the Grey: The Preakness winner ran out of steam in the Belmont, which was his sixth start of the year and third outing in five weeks. He had a pair of cuts on a hind leg but nothing serious. He is possible for the Haskell, Jim Dandy, and Travers.
Thorpedo Anna: Ken McPeek has to be tempted to run his talented filly against the boys after authoritative victories in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Acorn (G1), but says that she will remain in the 3-year-old filly division for now. She will remain at Saratoga and target the The Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) on July 20 and Alabama (G1) on Aug. 17.
