Check out my Thursday (11-6-25) Churchill Downs Race 5 analysis below.
CD 5 (MSW-120k, 2yo fillies, 8.5f dirt) – Post Time 2:57 PM ET
Primary – #2 HONFLEUR, #1 Tam Tam
Secondary – #4 Elegant Miss, #3 Maximum Offer
Horse Comments:
#2 Honfleur (7-2) was 9-1 in her local sprint bow and she broke last of 12 from the inside post and rallied for the show. The race flow was against her last time and she did well to finish third. Tyler Gaffalione sticks with Chad Brown’s $140k Omaha Beach filly and she sports four local works since her last. Barn is a strong 31% with first route runners.
#1 Tam Tam (5-2) dueled, got clear, and missed the place by a nose as the favorite in her sprint bow. She removed blinkers second time out and stalked from the inside post and finished second by a length. She puts blinkers back on and stretches out after two sprints, and she might be the one to catch from the inside post under Jose Ortiz. They paid $975k for this Medaglia d’Oro filly and she drilled a local bullet for this Oct. 31.
#4 Elegant Miss (4-1) is a Street Sense first timer and dam has produced four winners from six starters. Brad Cox is 30% with horses debuting at a mile or longer and Florent Geroux is 3-for-7 with this outfit recently.
#3 Maximum Offer (8-1) was a solid 3rd of 10 in her dirt sprint bow at KEE Oct. 18. They paid $170k for this Maxfield filly and dam has produced five winners from six starters (3 stakes winners). She might show more second time out for the productive Esquivel/McPeek team.
Wagers:
#2 to win
Exacta 2-3-4/1
Trifecta 1-2/1-2-3-4/1-2-3-4
October 2025 Bettor Bet$ Free Pick Winners
Oct. 10 – Betterdaysrcoming/Jetovator/Simplexity Trifecta ($25.20)
Oct. 11 – One Magic Philly ($4.68), Exacta ($11.88), Trifecta ($41.44)
Oct. 13 – Vibez ($7.20), Exacta ($15.40)
Oct. 15 – Arya Stark ($2.88), Trifecta ($16.80)
Oct. 16 – Proctor Street ($4.26), Trifecta ($115.32)
Oct. 17 – Frog ($4.60)
Oct. 21 – Claramente ($5.40)
Oct. 22 – Sister Troienne ($4.18)
Oct. 23 – Fulleffort/Easy Wind Exacta ($12.18)
Oct. 24 – Dakota Country/Hawker/Smooth Salute Trifecta ($13.80)
Oct. 25 – Tina Turner ($7.00), Exacta ($12.80)
Oct. 26 – Wild Like the West/Island Home Exacta ($8.20)
Oct. 29 – Yahoo Omar/Dr. Steve Exacta ($17.00)
Nov. 1 – Special Wan/Breath Away/Medoro Trifecta ($174.00)
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