The road to Kentucky Derby 2026 is in full swing. Eleven Derby points races have been run so far, and in this year-end report, I will recap the points races, update the points standings, and share my exceptional eleven Derby contenders.
I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my Runaway Horse YouTube channel, and through the first eleven points races, my top choices have four wins, three runner-up finishes, and a show finish.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Mr. A. P. is off the Derby trail due a undisclosed injury. He is expected to make a full recovery and might return by the end of March.
Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs (9-13-25): Ten horses competed in the first Derby points race and Spice Runner ($12.38) sat in midpack, moved up, and set his sights on stretch leader Comport and got up late by a head. Comport dueled on the lead and was clearly second best. Vost raced wide and rallied for the show and Nothing Personal (4th), Maximus Prime (5th), Shake and Rattle (6th), Nine Ball (7th), So Special (8th), Sometime (9th), and No More Cents (10th) also ran. Jose Ortiz guided home the winner for Steve Asmussen. Fractions: 22.69, 46.06, 1:10.83, 1:23.34, 1:36.59. This race has been alternating between a mile and 1 1/6 miles in recent years. Looking at the last 10 runnings at one mile (one turn), the 2025 clocking ranks fourth.
Grade 1 Champagne at Aqueduct (10-4-25): Napoleon Solo ($15.94) got to the front and never relinquished his advantage. He widened throughout and scored by 6 1/2 lengths for Joel Rosario and Chad Summers. Talkin rallied wide for the place and Universe stalked the pace and completed the trifecta. Beaten favorite It’s Our Time (4th), Stradale (5th), Curtain Call (6th), Aye Eye (7th), Stickupwithoutagun (8th), and Just Asap (9th) completed the order of finish. Fractions: 22.53, 44.24, 1:07.88, 1:20.90, 1:34.57. This was the fastest final time since 2016. Actually, it was the fastest since Uncle Mo in 2010 (1:34.51).
Grade 1 American Pharoah at Santa Anita (10-4-25): Desert Gate was the favorite and he made the lead from the inside post but his stablemate Kristofferson broke from the outside post and hounded him from the outset. Desert Gate put away Kristofferson and lead by a length in the stretch, but Intrepido was lurking behind the speed and Plutarch was closing, and Intrepido ($19.60) surged late to win by 3/4ths of a length. Desert Gate just held the place by a nose over his stablemate Plutarch, and the top three were well clear of Civil Liberty, Balboa, and Kristofferson. Hector Berrios rode Intrepido for Jeff Mullins and he received an 87 BSF. Fractions: 23.46, 46.99, 1:10.82, 1:35.76, 1:42.25. This was the 6th best final time since 2016.
Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland (10-4-25): Litmus Test shipped from California for Bob Baffert and he carved out the fractions under Flavien Prat. Strong favorite Ted Noffey ($3.84) chased the pace from the outside post, took over, and smartly scored by 2 3/4 lengths. Blackout Time stalked the pace from the inside post and was second best, and Litmus Test was well clear of the rest in third. Diciassette (4th), Spice Runner (5th), and Big Dom (6th) also ran. Fractions: 23.96, 48.23, 1:12.62, 1:37.43, 1:43.98. This was the fourth best final time since 2016 (Top 3: East Avenue, Classic Empire, Rattle N Roll).
Grade 3 Street Sense at Churchill Downs (10-26-25): Ganaas set a pressured pace and Universe was doing the dirty work in second. The latter took a short lead but Incredibolt ($10.18) had the momentum from the back of the pack and he went last-to-first to win by 1 3/4 lengths under Jamie Torres. Universe was clearly second best and was followed by Very Connected (3rd), I Did I Did (4th), Ganaas (5th), Bricklin (6th) and Vost (pulled up, walked off). Riley Mott was the winning trainer and his father Bill won this race in 20024 with Sovereignty. Fractions: 24.29, 48.83, 1:13.40, 1:38.32, 1:44.67. They started running this race at 1 1/16 miles in 2020 and the best two final times were earned by Two Phils (1:41.31) and Sovereignty (1:43.86). The final time this year ranked 4th of 6.
Grade 1 BC Juvenile at Del Mar (10-31-25): Blackout Time and Civil Liberty scratched and that left a 6-horse field. Brant made the lead as expected and strong favorite Ted Noffey tracked from the outside post as anticipated. Ted Noffey ($3.60) gradually wore down Brant and held off a late bid from 20-1 longshot Mr. A. P. to win by a length (97 BSF). The latter stalked the pace and ran his heart out, and Brant ran out of gas in deep stretch and held the show by a neck over his stablemate Litmus Test. Intrepido broke slow and never got seriously involved and Comport trailed. John Velazquez rode the winner for Todd Pletcher. Fractions: 23.46, 46.99, 1:10.82, 1:35.76, 1:42.25. This was the third fastest final time since 2016 (Fierceness – 1:41.90, Essential Quality – 1:42.09).
Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs (11-29-25): Dr. Kapur carved out the fractions and Soldier N Diplomat chased from second. Further Ado ($3.40) was less than even money on the heels of a facile maiden dirt route win for Brad Cox. He stalked from an outer post under Irad Ortiz, Jr., ranged up outside around the final turn, and edged clear late to win by 1 3/4 lengths. Universe rallied for the place from the outside post and he galloped out in front. Soldier N Diplomat (3rd), Very Connected (4th), Cherokee Nation (5th), Dr. Kapur (6th), and Spice Runner (7th) also ran. Fractions: 23.35, 46.76, 1:10.84, 1:36.55, 1:43.33. This was the second fastest final time since 2016.
Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct (12-6-25): Day One Starter and Balboa showed the way early and Paladin ($5.76) stalked from post 2 and kicked away from outside stalker Renegade to win by 2 lengths for Flavien Prat and Chad Brown. Renegade was second best and Balboa hung in there gamely and was best of the rest in third. Courting (4th), Grittiness (5th), Igniter (6th), I Did I Did (7th), Day One Starter (8th), Talkin (9th), Chambersville (10th), and Concarneau (11th) also ran. Probably Dreaming scratched. Fractions: 23.32, 47.47, 1;12.53, 1:38.25, 1:50.97. This was the 5th fastest final time since 2016.
Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity at Los Alamitos Race Course (12-13-25): Provenance got out there and made the running and race favorite Litmus Test ($3.20) stalked from second and edged clear to win by a length and a quarter for Juan Hernandez and Bob Baffert. Blacksmith stalked the pace and was clearly second best, and Provenance was 11+ lengths clear of the rest in third. Acknowledgemeplz (4th), American King (5th), and Captivator (pulled up, walked off) rounded out the order of finish. Bob Baffert saddled the 1-2-3 finishers and runner-up Blacksmith is a maiden. Fractions: 23.26, 46.67, 1:10.43, 1:35.85, 1:42.38. This was the 5th fastest final time since 2016.
Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds (12-20-25): Arabia Wild and Mesquite scratched and that left six runners. Ohio-bred stakes winner Crown the Buckeye was the 2-1 second choice and he got out there and set the pace, and Chip Honcho chased from second. Crown the Buckeye looked home free in the stretch but he shortened stride late and Chip Honcho ($9.80) reeled in the longtime leader and scored by 3/4ths of a length. Betting favorite Liberty National closed inside and nipped Crown the Buckeye for the place, and Quality Mischief stalked wide and was another neck back in fourth. Very Connected was 5th and Mister Punch broke slow, stalked from the outside post, and eased and walked off. Paco Lopez rode the winner for Steve Asmussen. Fractions: 23.62, 46.66, 1:10.98, 1:37.28, 1:44.76. The was the 4th fastest clocking since 2021.
Springboard Mile at Remington Park (12-20-25): My Dream Zapper scratched and that left a field of 11. Express Kid was sent to the lead from the outside post. Betting favorite Arctic Beast tracked the pace from the inside post but Express Kid ($71) had no intention of stopping and he widened throughout and romped by 6 1/4 lengths. Arctic Beast never stopped trying and was clearly second best, and Royalamerican rallied for the show. Western Man (4th), Way Beyond (5th), Big Apple Patrick (6th), Essential Time (7th), Jets Rio (8th), Time for Music (9th), Supreme Good (10th), and Spice Runner (11th) also ran. Jose Alvarez rode the longshot winner for Wade Rarick. Fractions: 23.54, 47.58, 1:12.83, 1:25.84, 1:38.99. This was the 6th fastest clocking since 2016.
Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Results
Iroquois (10-5-3-2-1) – Sept. 13 – Winner: Spice Runner ($12.38)
Champagne (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Napoleon Solo ($15.94)
American Pharoah (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Intrepido ($19.60)
Breeders’ Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Ted Noffey ($3.84)
Street Sense (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 26 – Winner: Incredibolt ($10.18)
BC Juvenile (30-15-9-6-3) – Oct. 31 – Winner: Ted Noffey ($3.60)
Ky Jockey Club (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 29 – Winner: Further Ado ($3.40)
Remsen (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 6 – Winner: Paladin ($5.76)
Los Al Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 13 – Winner: Litmus Test ($3.20)
Gun Runner (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 20 – Winner: Chip Honcho ($9.80)
Springboard Mile (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 20 – Winner: Express Kid ($71.00)
Jerome (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 3
Smarty Jones (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 3
Lecomte (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 17
Holy Bull (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 31
Southwest (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 31
Withers (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 31
Robert Lewis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 7
Sam F. Davis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 7
Risen Star (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 14
Sunland Derby (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 15
John Battaglia Memorial (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 21
Fountain of Youth (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 28
Gotham (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 28
Rebel (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1
Tampa Bay Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 7
San Felipe (50-25-15-10-5) – March 7
Virginia Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 14
Jeff Ruby Steaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 21
Louisiana Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 21
Arkansas Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
Florida Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
UAE Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
Blue Grass (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
SA Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
Wood Memorial (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
Lexington (20-10-6-4-2) – April 11
Top 20 Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Leaders (thru 12-31-25)
Ted Noffey (40 points)
Litmus Test (19 points)
Intrepido (13 points)
Universe (13 points)
Spice Runner (11 points)
Napoleon Solo (10 points)
Further Ado (10 points)
Express Kid (10 points)
Paladin (10 points)
Incredibolt (10 points)
Chip Honcho (10 points)
Brant (9 points)
Very Connected (6 points)
Comport (5 points)
Desert Gate (5 points)
Blackout Time (5 points)
Talkin (5 points)
Arctic Beast (5 points)
Renegade (5 points)
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2026 Contenders (12-31-25)
1 – PALADIN (Gun Runner – Secret Sigh, by Tapit) – Trainer: Chad Brown
Comments: This $1.9 million Gun Runner colt was the favorite in his flat mile bow at AQU on Oct. 13 and he attended below par splits, led, and missed by a head, and he was 5 1/4 lengths clear of the show (1:36.11). He was placed first through disqualification that day. He worked five times at BEL prior to the G2 Remsen (9f) on Dec. 6 and he tracked the pace, found his best stride in the lane, and won nicely by 2 lengths (85 BSF). He lost his right front shoe in the Remsen He is already a stakes winner at a mile and an eighth and acts like he will handle longer distances. He returned to work at Payson Park on Dec. 28. He breezed a half-mile in 50.80 (36/40). Chad Brown finished second in the Ky Derby with Good Magic (2018) and Sierra Leone (2024), and Zandon finished third for this barn in 2022.
2 – CANNONEER (Into Mischief – Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon) – Trainer: Brad Cox
Comments: $1.75 million yearling purchase was the strong favorite in his 5.5f bow on June 1 and he made the lead and was a clear 3rd of 7. He resurfaced in a 7f MSW event at CD on Nov. 29 and he was the favorite again, and this time he made the running and widened throughout, streaking across the line 7 1/4 lengths in front of clear runner-up Cornwall Boss. Dam Catch the Moon has produced multiple stakes winners including Girvin and Midnight Bourbon. He returned to the worktab at Payson Park on Dec. 24. He breezed 4f in 50.00 (17/43).
3 – TED NOFFEY (Into Mischief – Streak of Luck, by Old Fashioned) – Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Comments: He is expected to be named 2-year-old champion after a perfect 4-for-4 juvenile campaign. He won the G1 Hopeful (7f), G1 Breeders’ Futurity (G1), and G1 BC Juvenile (G1), and his early-pressing speed from outside posts served him well in those victories. Only two horses have completed the BC Juvenile-Ky Derby double (Street Sense, Nyquist), and four other BC Juvenile also-rans won the Derby (Spend a Buck, Alysheba, Sea Hero, Mine That Bird). Overall record of BC Juvenile participants in the KY Derby: 104 6-8-10. Those stats are not encouraging, and trainer Todd Pletcher is 2-for-65 in the Derby. He saddled more than one Derby entrant on several occasions and has seen many disappointments. His 2-year-old champion colt Fierceness finished 15th as the beaten favorite in 2024. His lone 2025 Derby entrant Grande scratched.
4 – RENEGADE (Into Mischief – Spice if Nice, by Curlin) – Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Comments: $975k Into Mischief colt was 3rd of 9 (beaten 18 lengths) in his 6.5f bow in August, and he rallied to edge Paladin by a head at one mile second time out on Oct. 17 and he was demoted to second for bumping his rival. He had slow half-mile breezes on Nov. 7 and Nov. 14, and had a gap in his workouts until Dec. 1 (quarter crack), and he raced wide and was second best to Paladin in the Remsen. Dam Spice Is Nice won the G3 DuPont Distaff for this outfit in 2021 and this one should continue to develop. He is wintering in Florida and breezed a half-mile in 49.43 (13/33) at Palm Beach Downs on Dec. 27.
5 – FURTHER ADO (Gun Runner – Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa) – Trainer: Brad Cox
Comments: Stretched out, pressed the pace, and ran off the screen (1st by 20 lengths) as the favorite in his fast KEE maiden win on Oct. 10 (8.5f – 98 BSF). The $550k Gun Runner colt did not run nearly as fast in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club (8.5f) but he was better than his rivals that day and scored by 1 3/4 lengths. He remains a promising prospect as we head into 2026.
6 – LITMUS TEST (Nyquist – Study Hard, by Malibu Moon) – Trainer: Bob Baffert
Comments: He was the favorite in his 5.5f bow at DMR and he stalked and scored by a bit less than a length. He was 15-1 in the G1 Del Mar Futurity second time out and he stalked wide and missed the show by a nose, and his stablemates Brant and Desert Gate finished 1-2 that day. He shipped to KEE, set the pace, and was a clear third behind Ted Noffey and Blackout Time in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity (8.5f). He was an even fourth in the G1 BC Juvenile (8.5f0 and he bounced back with a smart win as the favorite in the G2 Los Al Futurity at 8.5f on Dec. 13 (96 BSF). They paid $850k for this one and he worked 3f in 37.00 (15/29) at Santa Anita on Dec. 29.
7 – BLACKSMITH (Liam’s Map – Sweet Achiever, by Curlin) – Trainer: Bob Baffert
Comments: They paid $525k for this one at the Keeneland September 2024 Yearling Sale (Hip 246). He chased the pace and was clearly second best in his 6.5f bow at SA Oct. 25 (91 BSF), and he split a 10-horse field as the beaten favorite at 6.5f second time out at DMR Nov. 22. Last time, he stretched out and rallied to finish a clear second behind his stablemate Litmus Test in the G2 Los Al Futurity (8.5f). The maiden worked a half-mile in 47.60 (14/67) at Santa Anita on Dec. 30.
8 – UNIVERSE (Global Campaign – Equalityforall, by Quality Road) – Trainer: Ken McPeek
Comments: Cruised in his 7f bow at SAR and was 3rd in the G1 Champagne (8f one turn), 2nd in the G3 Street Sense (8.5f), and 2nd in the G2 Ky Jockey Club (8.5f). He galloped out in front in the latter race and breezed twice at FG in December. He is entered in the Smarty Jones (8.5f) at OP on Jan. 3.
9 – IRON HONOR (Nyquist – Orencia, by Blame) – Trainer: Chad Brown
Comments: Looked good in his 6f bow at the Big A on Dec. 13. Race favorite Crossingthechannel made the front and this colt chased from second under Manny Franco and edged clear late by 1 1/2 lengths. Crossingthechannel was 7+ lengths in front of the rest and Iron Honor earned a 95 BSF. He originally sold for $230k at the Keeneland January 2024 Horses of All Ages Sale (Hip 461), and went for $475k at the Keeneland September 2024 Yearling Sale (Hip 1324).
10 – GOLDEN TEMPO (Curlin – Carrumba, by Bernardini) – Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
Comments: He was 5-2 in his 6f debut at FG on Dec. 20 and he broke slow and went last-to-first in a 10-horse field. This was a good effort at a distance too short for him based on his pedigree. He should get stamina from his sire Curlin, and dam Carrumba captured the G3 Top Flight (9f) as the favorite at AQU in 2016.
11 – MOB (Gun Runner – Onslaught, by Street Sense) – Trainer: Brian Lynch
Comments: This $560k purchase was unveiled in a MSW dirt sprint at CD on Nov. 23 and he set a fast, pressured pace and graduated by a length and a half. His dam Onslaught is a full sister to 2015 Las Virgenes (G1) winner Callback (Bob Baffert). His third dam is Supercharger and she produced Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. He is wintering in Florida and has breezed four time at Palm Meadows since Dec. 7. He fired back-to-back 5f bullets on Dec. 14 and Dec. 21, and he most recently went a half-mile in 50.50 (22/54) on Dec. 28.
Next Nine: (12) Brant, (13) Liberty National, (14) Incredibolt, (15) Napoleon Solo, (16) Blackout Time, (17) Pyromancer, (18) Schoolyardsuperman, (19) Secured Freedom, (20) Chip Honcho
