There were three road to Kentucky Derby 2026 prep races last week and Commandment edged Chief Wallabee in Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on Feb. 28, and that was the fastest of the three points races. In this report, I will recap the Gotham, Fountain of Youth, and Rebel Stakes, update the points standings, and share my exceptional eleven Derby contenders.
I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my Runaway Horse video channel, and through 25 points races, my top choices have 10 wins, 4 runner-up finishes, and 3 show finishes. The road to the Derby continues with the Tampa Bay Derby on March 7 and the field will be announced on March 4. The San Felipe Stakes on March 7 at Santa Anita Park has a field of seven and Brant is the likely favorite.
San Felipe field (race 8): 1 – Flashy Fritz, 2 – Start the Ride, 3 – Secured Freedom, 4 – Brant, 5 – Potente, 6 – So Happy, 7 – Robusta.
Plutarch, ranked eleventh on my Kentucky Derby list last week, exited the Robert Lewis with body soreness and is off the Derby trail. He is expected to remain in light training.
Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Recaps
Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct (2-28-26): Race favorite Iron Honor and Crown the Buckeye mixed it up on the front end from the start and it was a two-horse race throughout. Iron Honor ($3.88), making just his second career start and first since December, got the better of his more experienced rival by a length (90 BSF). Crown the Buckeye tried hard throughout and ended up 6 1/2 lengths in front of closing show finisher Right to Party. Exhibition Only (4th), Balboa (5th), Hammond (6th), Dirty Rich (7th), and Fourth and One (8th) also ran. Creole Chrome scratched. Manny Franco rode the winner for Chad Brown and he might run next in the Wood Memorial. Fractions: 23.09, 46.30, 1:11.45, 1:24.25, 1:37.94.
Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park (2-28-26): 55-1 longshot Rockies Balboa made the running from post 2 and Solitude Dude chased from second. The latter gained a short advantage at the six furlong mark but it would not last. Chief Wallabee was closing outside and race favorite Commandment ($6.80) got a big opening along the rail, and the chalk prevailed by a neck (101 BSF). Chief Wallabee ran a big race in a clear runner-up finish in just his second career start, and Solitude Dude (3rd) was 8 3/4 lengths in front of Bravaro (4th). Napoleon Solo (5th), Jackson Hole (6th), Bull by the Horns (7th), Lost Money (8th), and Rockies Balboa (9th) rounded out the order of finish. Talkin and Global Aviator scratched. Irad Ortiz, Jr. guided home the winner for Brad Cox. Fractions: 23.16, 46.89, 1:11.47, 1:36.67, 1:43.33.
Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park (3-1-26): Litmus Test broke from the inside post following the defection of Bravaro, and he made the lead under Flavien Prat. Class President pressed from second and turned up the heat around the far turn. He took a short lead at the top of the stretch and Southwest hero Silent Tactic was closing ground, and the race was on. Class President ($19) and Silent Tactic battled all the way to the finish line and the former gamely dug in and prevailed by a nose (91 BSF). Closer Silent Tactic was 5 1/4 lengths in front of clear show finisher Litmus Test. It was another 2 3/4 lengths back to Blackout Time, and he stalked the pace and raced evenly in his first start since October 2025. Soldier N Diplomat (5th), Strategic Risk (6th), Honey’s To Blame (7th), Rancho Santa Fe (8th), and Time for Music (9th) also ran. John Velazquez rode the winner for Todd Pletcher. Fractions: 23.06, 46.62, 1:11.77, 1:36.99, 1:43.21.
Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Results
Iroquois (10-5-3-2-1) – Sept. 13 – Winner: Spice Runner ($12.38)
Champagne (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Napoleon Solo ($15.94)
American Pharoah (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Intrepido ($19.60)
Breeders’ Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 4 – Winner: Ted Noffey ($3.84)
Street Sense (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 26 – Winner: Incredibolt ($10.18)
BC Juvenile (30-15-9-6-3) – Oct. 31 – Winner: Ted Noffey ($3.60)
Ky Jockey Club (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 29 – Winner: Further Ado ($3.40)
Remsen (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 6 – Winner: Paladin ($5.76)
Los Al Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 13 – Winner: Litmus Test ($3.20)
Gun Runner (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 20 – Winner: Chip Honcho ($9.80)
Springboard Mile (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 20 – Winner: Express Kid ($71.00)
Jerome (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 3 – Winner: My World ($7.24)
Smarty Jones (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 3 – Winner: Strategic Risk ($7.00)
Lecomte (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 17 – Winner: Golden Tempo ($7.40)
Holy Bull (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 31 – Winner: Nearly ($5.40)
Southwest (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 6 – Winner: Silent Tactic ($26.00)
Withers (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 6 – Winner: Talk to Me Jimmy ($26.54)
Robert Lewis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 7 – Winner: Plutarch ($10.20)
Sam F. Davis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 7 – Winner: Renegade ($4.40)
Risen Star (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 14 – Winner: Paladin ($3.40)
Sunland Derby (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 15 – Winner: Pavlovian ($12.20)
John Battaglia Memorial (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 21 – Winner: Great White ($32.32)
Fountain of Youth (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 28 – Winner: Commandment ($6.80)
Gotham (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 28 – Winner: Iron Honor ($3.88)
Rebel (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1 – Winner: Class President ($19.00)
Tampa Bay Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 7
San Felipe (50-25-15-10-5) – March 7
Virginia Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 14
Jeff Ruby Steaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 21
Louisiana Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 21
Arkansas Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
Florida Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
UAE Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 28
Blue Grass (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
SA Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
Wood Memorial (100-50-25-15-10) – April 4
Lexington (20-10-6-4-2) – April 11
Top 20 Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Leaders (thru 3-2-26)
Paladin (60 points)
Silent Tactic (50 points)
Class President (50 points)
Commandment (50 points)
Iron Honor (50 points)
Chip Honcho (39 points)
Golden Tempo (35 points)
Litmus Test (34 points)
Renegade (25 points)
Chief Wallabee (25 points)
Intrepido (23 points)
Universe (23 points)
Pavlovian (20 points)
Express Kid (20 points)
Nearly (20 points)
Talk to Me Jimmy (20 points)
Great White (20 points)
Bravaro (20 points)
Soldier N Diplomat (18 points)
Napoleon Solo (15 points)
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2026 Contenders (3-2-26)
1 – PALADIN (Gun Runner – Secret Sigh, by Tapit) – Trainer: Chad Brown – Last Ranking (1)
Comments: He earned an improved 93 BSF in his first start of 2026 in the Risen Star (G2). He won his last two stakes starts at a mile and an eighth, and he returned to the worktab with a four panel breeze in 49.80 (39/77) at Payson Park on Feb. 27. The Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 4 is his next assignment.
2 – RENEGADE (Into Mischief – Spice Is Nice, by Curlin) – Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Last Ranking (2)
Comments: The Sam F. Davis Stakes winner at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 7 (92 BSF) has worked twice since that victory including a half-mile breeze in 50.29 (15/16) at Palm Beach Downs on Feb. 27. He is scheduled to make his next start in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn on March 28.
3 – NEARLY (Not This Time – IB Prospecting, by Mineshaft) – Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Last Ranking (4)
Comments: The Holy Bull (G3) hero has worked three times since that Jan. 31 victory including a half-mile move in 50.17 (13/16) at Palm Beach Downs on Feb. 27. He is scheduled to run next in the Florida Derby (G1) on March 28.
4 – GOLDEN TEMPO (Curlin – Carrumba, by Bernardini) – Trainer: Cherie DeVaux – Last Ranking (5)
Comments: He won the Grade 3 Lecomte in January and rallied for the show in the Risen Star (G2) on Feb. 14. He got back to work with a half-mile breeze in 47.80 (7/50) at Fair Grounds on Feb. 27. He runs next in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 21.
5 – FURTHER ADO (Gun Runner – Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (6)
Comments:The 2025 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) winner has worked six times at Payson Park this year and three of those were bullets. His most recent move was a half-mile breeze in 49.40 (14/49) on Feb. 28. He is expected to start his sophomore season in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) on March 7.
6 – COMMANDMENT (Into Mischief – Sippican Harbor, by Orb) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (10)
Comments: Mucho Macho Man Stakes winner got a great inside stalking trip and won the Fountain of Youth (G2) by a neck at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 28 (101 BSF). He has now won three straight races at Gulfstream and proved that he could handle two turns in the FOY. He will probably go next in the Florida Derby (G1) on March 28.
7 – CHIEF WALLABEE (Constitution – A La Lucie by Medaglia d’Oro) – Trainer: Bill Mott – Last Ranking (unranked)
Comments: He was 5-2 in his extended sprint bow at Gulfstream on Jan. 10 and he beat race favorite The Puma by a length and a half, and the later returned to finish third in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay. He earned a decent number in his winning debut, and he stretched out, raced wide, and miss by a neck in a clear runner-up finish in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on Feb. 28. He is all upside but I am concerned about his lack of seasoning. The Florida Derby (G1) is most likely his next race, and if if qualifies for the Kentucky Derby, he will have just three career starts and no two-year-old foundation.
8 – BRANT (Gun Runner – Tynan, by Liam’s Map) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (9)
Comments: He won the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and finishing third in the BC Juvenile (G1) last year. He has worked six times at Santa Anita this year. He drilled a 6f gate bullet in 1:11.80 (1/7) at Santa Anita on Feb. 21, and he went 5f in 59.80 (8/73) on March 1. He is entered in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita on March 7.
9 – REAGAN’S HONOR (Honor A. P. – Rutile, by Medaglia d’Oro) – Trainer: Cherie DeVaux – Last Ranking (14)
Comments: He set the pace and graduated by 1 1/4 lengths in a MSW dirt route on the Lecomte undercard at Fair Grounds on Jan. 17 (81 BSF). He was the favorite in an allowance dirt route at that same venue on Feb. 19 and he made the running and cruised by 6 3/4 lengths as the chalk (96 BSF). He is targeting the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland on April 4.
10 – LITMUS TEST (Nyquist – Study Hard, by Malibu Moon) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (3)
Comments: The 2025 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) winner worked seven times at Santa Anita prior to the Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 1, and he set the pace from the inside post and was best of the rest in third at Oaklawn. The Rebel was his first start since December 2025. He has accumulated 34 Derby points and might return to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby (G1) on March 28.
11 – CHEROKEE NATION (Not This Time – Believe In Charlie, by Indian Charlie) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (unranked)
Comments: He earned a BSF of 100 for his romping maiden win in a flat mile race at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 27. He pressed from second and aired by 10 lengths and that was his sixth career start (3 runner-up finishes), and he finally ran to expectations. He competed in two stakes races as a maiden and was 5th in both of those races (G2 Ky Jockey Club, G3 Robert Lewis). Bob Baffert’s $1.15 million colt might run next in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 4.
Next Nine: (12) Silent Tactic, (13) Class President, (14) Intrepido, (15) So Happy, (16) Iron Honor (17) Pyromancer, (18) Canaletto, (19) Potente, (20) Blackout Time.
