The road to Kentucky Oaks 2027 is off and running. Six Oaks points races have been run so far, and in this report, I will recap the points races, update the points standings, and share my top five Oaks fillies.
I cover all of the Kentucky Oaks 2027 preps on my video channel each year, and after 6 points races, my top choices have 2 wins, 2 runner-up finishes, and 2 show finishes.
Kentucky Oaks Key Trends (2000-2026)
Four straight Oaks winners from 2022-25 had their final prep at Fair Grounds (Pretty Mischievous, Good Cheer) or Oaklawn (Thorpedo Anna, Secret Oath). 2026 Oaks winner Always a Runner won her final prep in the G3 Gazelle at 9f at AQU. SA Oaks winner Meaning was 2nd, and Counting Stars (3rd) and Explora (4th) prepped for the Oaks at OP.
New Orleans Shippers: Keep a close eye on horses wintering at Fair Grounds. Since 2004, a horse with at least one 3-year-old start at that venue has won the Oaks 12 times including 2023 winner Pretty Mischievous and 2025 winner Good Cheer. The former was first in the Untapable and Rachel Alexandra (G2), and second in the FG Oaks (G2), and the later won both of those races (Rachel Alexandra, FG Oaks).
Ashland at Keeneland: The Grade 1 Ashland has been a productive final prep race (7 winners since 2000 including 2021 winner Malathaat).
Positive CD Stat: A race at Churchill Downs prior to the Oaks is a good angle (15 winners since 2000 including Pretty Mischievous, Thorpedo Anna, Good Cheer).
SoCal Runners in the Oaks: Horses making their final Oaks prep in Southern California have struck four times since 2000 (last one was Abel Tasman in 2017). SA Oaks winner Meaning was 2nd in the Ky Oaks in 2026.
GP Jinx: None of the Ky Oaks winners from 2000-2026 had their final prep at Gulfstream Park. 2026 GP Oaks winner Prom Queen was 5th of 13 in the Ky Oaks.
BC Horses in the Oaks: Just 4 of the last 25 Oaks winners competed in the BC Juvenile Fillies. Three finished in the trifecta in the BC, and 2019 Oaks winner Serengeti Empress finished 7th in the Cup. Just F Y I won the 2023 BC Juvenile Fillies and finished second in the 2024 Ky Oaks.
Pedigree: Give bonus points to horses with A. P. Indy in the bloodlines. 2023 Oaks winner Pretty Mischievous had A. P. Indy in the fourth generation on the dam side. 2021 winner Malathaat had A. P. Indy as the dam sire, 2020 winner Shedaresthedevil had Congrats as the dam sire, and his sire was A. P. Indy. Serengeti Empress had A. P. Indy in the third generation on the dam side of her pedigree. Cathryn Sophia, Untapable, Princess of Sylmar, Plum Pretty, Rags To Riches, and Secret Status all had A. P. Indy blood running through their veins. 2022 winner Secret Oath did not have the A. P. Indy angle, 2024-25 winners Thorpedo Anna and Good Cheer did not have the A. P. Indy angle. 2026 Oaks winner Always a Runner brought back the A. P. Indy angle (3rd generation on dam side).
Some early Oaks 2027 hopefuls with A. P. Indy in the bloodlines: Emphatic, Summer Starlet, Wharfie, Flightress, Dotsy, Manuka Honey, Domain Expansion.
Kentucky Oaks 2027 Points Race Recaps
Grade 3 Pocahontas at Churchill (9-12-26)
The top three finishers are decent sorts but the final time was disappointing. Manuka Honey was the strong favorite. She was the chalk in her 5f bow at CD June 20 and she stalked wide from post 11 and aired by 7+ lengths. She was 45 cents on the dollar in the Ellis Park Debutante at 7f Aug. 9 and she stalked and romped by 7 lengths, and stalked and tallied by 2 lengths in the Pocahontas at one mile Sept. 3 (final 1/4 in 26.27). Scarlett Begonia dueled and held the place by a head over my top choice Miss Anna. Fractions: 23.03, 45.70, 1:10.63, 1:23.50, 1:36.90.
Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland (10-2-26)
This was a strong edition of the Alcibiades. Emphatic was the 3-1 second choice on the line and she got out there and controlled the pace from the inside post. Post time favorite Summer Starlet chased from second, took an awkward step when Oh She Said Yes stepped on her leg, and recovered quickly. That incident made all the difference. Emphatic was able to build on her lead, and when Summer Starlet came after her in the stretch, she turned that one away and tallied by a length and a quarter. My top choice Summer Starlet was 17 1/2 lengths in front of show finisher Oh She Said Yes. Ever Forward (4th), Forever Carina (5th), High Speed Reed (6th), and For the Money (7th) also ran. Tyler Gaffalione rode the winner for Brendan Walsh. Summer Starlet came out of the race with inflammation in a tendon in her hind leg due to the incident with Oh She Said Yes. She will get 90 days off before being re-evaluated. Fractions: 24.45, 48.74, 1:12.49, 1:36.92, 1:43.40.
Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont (10-3-26)
This was not a strong renewal of the Frizette. Dotsy, an 11-1 longshot, chased from third while out in the clear and pulled away in the stretch to win by 2 3/4 lengths for Kendrick Carmouche and John Grabowski. My top choice Rum Twist stalked the pace and was second best, and late running maiden Revenge of the Sis was best of the rest in third. Beaten favorite Libby Lloyd dueled and weakened to 4th, and Velora, Girls Wear Pearls, and She’s a Twelve also ran. Fractions: 22.98, 45.75, 1:10.02, 1:22.65, 1:36.07.
Grade 2 Oak Leaf at Santa Anita (10-3-26)
Surface switching maiden Domain Expansion dominated a weak group at Santa Anita. She chased from second, took over, and romped by 7 lengths. Holmby stalked the pace and was clearly second best, and even money favorite Quattro Passi was best of the rest in third as my top choice. Free Closer, Deluge, and Janie Not Jeanie also ran. Adrian Escobedo rode the winner for Leonard Powell. Fractions: 23.05, 47.11, 1:11.86, 1:37.94, 1:44.44.
Rags to Riches at Churchill (10-25-26)
I got on the board with my first Oaks points race winner. Wharfie was the favorite and she ran to expectations. Bill Mott’s Godolphin filly sat back early under Junior Alvarado, and she ran down 23-1 closing longshot Juana Margarita to win by 3/4ths of a length. The runner-up was 6 1/4 lengths in front of Brad Cox’s Godolphin filly First Laugh (clear show finisher). Oh She Said Yes (4th), Countthetrue (5th), Lunar Velocity (6th), and Introseous (7th) also ran. Fractions: 23.88, 48.63, 1:13.71, 1:39.43, 1:45.91.
Grade 1 BC Juvenile Fillies at Keeneland (10-30-26)
I thought the top two ran quality races in what appears to be a strong edition of the BC Juvenile Fillies. Emphatic gave trainer Brendan Walsh and jockey Tyler Gaffalione a major championship victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She chased from second, took over and opened up, and held off a troubled Miss Monica to score by a diminishing length and a half. Betting favorite Miss Monica, stretching out for the first time, bumped with Rum Twist at the start, and she rallied through traffic in a clear runner-up finish, with Manuka Honey taking third (8+ lengths behind Miss Monica). 56-1 maiden Revenge of the Sis was another 1/2 length back in fourth, and Domain Expansion (5th), Foxiest (6th), Scarlett Begonia (7th), Rum Twist (8th), Badditude (9th), Voyager (10th), Lexi’s Charm (11th), and Life Changing (12th) also ran. Fractions: 22.54, 45.87, 1:11.21, 1:35.88, 1:42.29.
Kentucky Oaks 2027 Points Race Results (Top Choice Winners Bolded)
Pocahontas (10-5-3-2-1) – Sep. 12 – Winner: Manuka Honey ($3.92)
Alcibiades (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 2 – Winner: Emphatic ($8.78)
Frizette (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 3 – Winner: Dotsy ($25.02)
Oak Leaf (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 3 – Winner: Domain Expansion ($31.00)
Rags to Riches (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 25 – Winner: Wharfie ($5.40)
BC Juvenile Fillies (30-15-9-6-3) – Oct. 30 – Winner: Emphatic ($7.92)
Golden Rod (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 28
Demoiselle (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 5
Starlet (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 5
Untapable (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 19
Santa Ynez (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 3
Busanda (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 16
Silverbulletday (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 16
Forward Gal (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 23
Martha Washington (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 23
Las Virgenes (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 31
Suncoast (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 6
Rachel Alexandra (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 13
Cincinnati Trophy (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 19
Busher (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 20
Honeybee (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 20
Sunland Park Oaks (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 21
Davona Dale (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 27
Santa Ysabel (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 27
UAE Fillies Mile (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 27
Virginia Oaks (50-25-15-10-5) – March 13
Bourbonette Oaks (50-25-15-10-5) – March 20
FG Oaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 20
Fantasy (100-50-25-15-10) – March 27
GP Oaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 27
Ashland (100-50-25-15-10) – April 2
Gazelle (100-50-25-15-10) – April 3
SA Oaks (100-50-25-15-10) – April 3
Top 20 Kentucky Oaks 2027 Points Leaders (thru 11-10-26)
1. Emphatic (40 points)
2. Manuka Honey (19 points)
3. Miss Monica (15 points)
4. Domain Expansion (13 points)
5. Dotsy (10 points)
6. Wharfie (10 points)
7. Revenge of the Sis (9 points)
8. Summer Starlet (5 points)
9. Holmby (5 points)
10. Rum Twist (5 points)
11. Scarlett Begonia (5 points)
12. Oh She Said Yes (5 points)
13. Juana Margarita (5 points)
14. Miss Anna (3 points)
15. Quattro Passi (3 points)
16. First Laugh (3 points)
17. Free Closer (2 points)
18. Ever Forward (2 points)
19. Libby Lloyd (2 points)
20. Stripe Show (2 points)
Jarrod Horak’s Fabulous Five Kentucky Oaks 2027 Contenders (11-10-26)
#1 – MISS MONICA (Early Voting – Lipstikliesnlovers, by American Pharoah) – Trainer: Bob Baffert
Comments: She ran to her 1-2 odds in her 6.5f bow Aug. 9. She got to the front from the inside post and cruised home by 5 3/4 lengths, and runner-up Well Versed was 10 1/4 lengths in front of the show finisher. Her debut race shape was slow early and fast late, and the $850k Early Voting filly earned a strong final time rating. She was 40 cents on the dollar in the G1 Del Mar Debutante at 7f second time out and she stalked outside, cruised to the lead, and won under a hand ride by 6 1/4 lengths. Baffert’s filly stretched out after two sprints in the BC Juvenile Fillies, and she bumped with Rum Twist out of the gate and was near the back of the pack and out of position early. She made a sustained run and was gaining on Emphatic in the short stretch at Keeneland, and she ended up 1 1/2 length behind the winner and 8 1/4 lengths in front of the show finisher. I am going to make the argument that the BC results could have been different if she would have been able to secure a forward position. Emphatic already had a pair of route races, and this one entered the BC with two facile sprint wins. I am looking forward to seeing what she can do in future graded route starts.
#2 – EMPHATIC (Nyquist – Convinced, by Tiznow) – Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Comments: She earned her upcoming Eclipse Award as the top juvenile filly in the land. She is a perfect 4-for-4 including stakes wins in the Sorority, Alcibiades, and BC Juvenile Fillies. She was less than even money in her 6f bow at CNL and she chased the pace from the outside post and cruised by 6 3/4 lengths. She was the 3-2 favorite in the Sorority at one mile on dirt at MTH second time out and she stalked from an outer post and won easily by 5 1/4 lengths (final 2.5 furlongs in 30.91). She drew the rail in the G1 Alcibiades at 8.5f Oct. 2, and she took advantage of her inside post, which allowed her to set the pace over race favorite Summer Starlet. The latter took a bad step when Oh She Said Yes stepped on her leg on the backstretch. Summer Starlet dropped back a bit, and that incident gave Emphatic a bit more of a breather, and she turned away Summer Starlet in the stretch and dug in to win by 1 1/4 lengths. Summer Starlet was more than 17 lengths clear of the rest. The Alcibiades (Oct. 2) final time was 1:43 2/5, and the Breeders’ Futurity (Oct. 3) final time was 1:44 4/5. She was my top choice in the BC Juvenile Fillies on Oct. 30, and her gate speed and professionalism allowed her to comfortably chase early runner Lexi’s Charm from post 10. She made a quick move to take over and open up by 4 lengths in the stretch, and she held off a belated bid from Miss Monica to win by 1 1/2 lengths.
#3 – SUMMER STARLET (City of Light – Act Now, by Street Sense) – Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Comments: She was 15-1 in her 6.5f debut at SAR Aug. 8 and she rolled home from off the pace by 6 3/4 lengths. She earned a strong late pace rating in her debut and was the favorite in the G1 Spinaway second time out, and she stalked the pace and won by 4 3/4 lengths. She earned a better number second time out and stretched out after two sprints, chased from second in the Alcibiades, took a bad step when Oh She Said Yes stepped on her hind leg, and was miles clear of the rest in a runner-up finish behind subsequent BC Juvenile Fillies winner Emphatic. Steve Asmussen’s $335k City of Light filly came out of the Alcibiades with tendon inflammation, which subsequently forced her to the sidelines for three months. She is very talented and I am looking forward to her return next year.
#4 – WHARFIE (Essential Quality – Waterside, by Medaglia d’Oro) – Trainer: Bill Mott
Comments: She finished fifth in her six-furlong debut at 23-1 before returning at Belmont Park for a one-turn mile. In that second start, she was the 5-2 third choice, and she chased from third and won by two and three-quarter lengths in a 4-horse field. Her Fire Number improved from 67 to 72, while her CPR figures climbed from 88 to 97. The daughter of Essential Quality stretched out to 1 1/16 miles in the Rags to Riches under the Twin Spires on Oct. 25. Her pedigree suggested that additional distance could be within reach, and she rallied from off the pace and found her best stride late to score by a bit less than a length. Her latest performances gives me a reason to consider her a possible player on the road to Kentucky Oaks 2027, but she needs to get faster to compete with the top horses in this division.
#5 – FLIGHTRESS (Flightline – Salty As Can Be, by Into Mischief) – Trainer: Shug McGaughey
Comments: She has the typical pattern of a Shug McGaughey runner. The patient Hall of Fame trainer gives his horses time to develop and uses races as an educational experience. This $350k Flightline filly was 21-1 in her 6f bow at Saratoga on Aug. 1 and she chased wide and ended up 6th of 10. She was 11-1 in an extended sprint at the Spa on Sept. 5, and she stumbled at the start, chased, led, and settled for the place behind subsequent G1 Frizette runner-up Rum Twist. She was 9-2 at 1/16 miles at Belmont on Nov. 1, and she dueled and edged clear to graduate by 1 3/4 lengths over promising Danny Gargan trainee Gun Broker. I like the slow, steady progression, and she could easily continue to get faster.
Next Nine: (6) Gun Broker, (7) Foxiest, (8) Manuka Honey, (9) Domain Expansion, (10) Dotsy, (11) Rum Twist, (12) Inflect, (13) Joyful Flight, (14) Revenge of the Sis.
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