CD Kentucky Oaks Day Full Card Highlights for Friday (5-1-26)
CD 6 Carmel Coast/Paige Turner Exacta ($13.82)
CD 8 ON TIME GIRL (CD Best Bet, $5.92), Exacta ($47.68)
Double (races 8-9, $43.56)
Pick 3 (races 8-10, $173.96)
CD 10 Shred the Gnar/Fully Subscribed/Bless the Broken Trifecta ($108.92)
CD 11 Imaginationthelady/Tam Tam/Lion Lake Trifecta ($802.04)
CD 12 ALWAYS A RUNNER ($13.04)
*Full card highlights based on $2 wagers unless otherwise noted.
CHURCHILL DOWNS full card for Friday (5-1-26)
By Jarrod Horak
CD Weather: Cloudy. High 63.
CD Best Bets (races 7, 8) – CD Price Play (race 2, 12)
CD Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets included below
20 cent Pick 6 tickets included below
Rolling Double & Pick 3 tickets included below
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May 1 Picks:
CD 1 (MSW, 8.5f)
Primary – #1 PHANTOM BLUE
Secondary – #7 Episist, #6 Soaring High, #5 Mass
Wagers: Exacta 1-7, Trifecta key 1/6-7, Superfecta key 1/5-6-7
50 cent Early Pick 5 (races 1-5): 1/3-5-7-9/9-10/1-11/1-11 ($16)
Comments: #1 Phantom Blue (4-5) was 7-2 in her KEE debut in the slop April 3 and she battled on the pace and was best of the rest in third (exceeded winning par for this). Resolute Racing paid $1.2 million for this Ghostzapper filly and dam has tossed three winners from four starters. Walsh is 20% with his first route starters and she adds blinkers and drilled a half-mile bullet for this at CD April 25 (best of 80). I like her route pedigree (Ghostzapper-Arch). #7 Episist (4-1) improved her speed ratings in all three starts. She stalked the pace and was clearly second best in a dirt route in the slop at OP April 4. Her new rider Jose Ortiz is 10-for-29 recently and she drilled a 5f bullet for this April 20. #6 Soaring High (7-2) was the favorite in her dirt sprint bow at CD (September 2025) and she stalked and weakened to 7th of 12 (beaten 10 lengths). DeVaux is 22% first lasix and 24% with second timers, and the well-bred filly (Curlin – Songbird, by Medaglia d’Oro) gets the services of Ortiz Jr. #5 Mass (8-1) was last of 6 at 5-2 odds in her flat mile bow on dirt and her stablemate and Ky Oaks entrant Brooklyn Blonde won that heat. She switched surfaces, made the running, and held the show in a much improved effort at 9T second time out. Prat takes the call and the $610k Not This Time filly returns to dirt and adds blinkers.
CD 2 (OC-80k/2x, 8f) – CD Price Play
Primary – #5 QUANTUM BURST, #3 Chopsticks
Secondary – #7 Sudden Switch, #9 Five a Side, #4 White Rocks
Wagers: #5 to win, Exacta box 3-5, Trifecta 3-5/3-4-5-7-9/3-4-5-7-9
50 cent Early Pick 4 (races 2-5): 3-5/5-7-9-10/1-11/1-11 ($16)
Comments: #5 Quantum Burst (6-1) had her 6-race trifecta streak come to an end when finishing last of 7 from the outside post at OP March 12 (6f). She graduated in a local extended sprint November 2024 and romped at this distance at CNL March 2025. Her new pilot Jose Ortiz is 6-for-10 with Kenneally and nine of those runners finished in the trifecta. #3 Chopsticks (9-2) won her first two starts from off the pace last year and went to the sidelines after finishing 9th of 10 in the G1 Frizette. The runner-up from her debut was a next-out winner, and she beat a next-out winner again second time out. Brad Cox’s $300k Essential Quality filly adds lasix and drilled a half-mile bullet for this April 20. Her new rider Ortiz Jr. is 33% with this outfit. #7 Sudden Switch (7-2) was clearly second best to romping winner Kapoor in a similar extended sprint at KEE April 8. Torres got to know her last time and he is 3-for-9 with Riley Mott, and she is entered for the $80k tag and should be forwardly placed. #9 Five a Side (3-1) romped by 10 lengths in a flat mile OC affair at TP Feb. 21, and she was clearly second best in the Latonia at that venue March 21. She handles dirt and Prat takes the call, and John Servis is a profitable 23% in allowance races. #4 White Rocks (10-1) won the Cincinnati Trophy last year and weakened in her next two stakes starts (Bourbonette Oaks, Hilltop). She hit the board in her next three allowance starts at TP, and she added blinkers and chased and weakened March 14. The blinkers come off immediately and that is a good move for Delacour (31%), and she switches surfaces and is back around one turn. Gaffalione takes the call and she is a tad interesting if she handles the footing.
CD 3 (OC-125k/1x, 8.5f)
Primary – #9 LEINANI, #10 Star Actress
Secondary – #5 Joyful Justice, #7 Betty’s Pearl, #3 Krissys Star
Wagers: #9 to win, Exacta box 9-10, Trifecta 9-10/3-5-7-9-10/3-5-7-9-10
50 cent Pick 5 (races 3-7): 9-10/1-11/1-11/5-6/5-6 ($16)
Comments: #9 Leinani (5-1) raced wide from post 10 and rallied mildly to finish 4th of 10 at 9-1 odds in her 6f bow Jan. 24 and clear runner-up Sippin Pretty won her next two starts on March 5 and April 4. This filly was the favorite at one mile March 1 and she stalked from third and aired by 8 1/4 lengths under Friday’s rider Gaffalione. Chad Brown’s promising filly fired a best of 79 bullet for this at Payson Park April 11. #10 Star Actress (4-1) broke 8th of 9 from the inside post in her 7f bow and she rallied to miss by a half-length (#7 Betty’s Pearl 1st), and show finisher #5 Joyful Justice (6-1) was a next-out winner. She was 7-1 in her bow and 60 cents on the dollar at 8.5f second time out, and she stalked and graduated by a length. She lost lasix and rallied from the outside post to finish a clear 3rd of 6 in the G1 Ashland April 3 and that was a slow early/fast late event. She goes back on lasix for the profitable, 24% Alvarado/Mott team. #3 Krissys Star (15-1) is 3-for-3 on dirt and she won those races at lesser venues by a combined 21 3/4 lengths. Prat takes the call and she is getting faster for Bill Morey.
CD 4 (MSW, 7f)
Primary – #11 TAMMY’S KISS, #1 Hedge Book
Secondary – #4 Couplet, #6 Passerine
Wagers: #11 to win, Exacta 4-6-11/1, Trifecta 1-11/1-4-6-11/1-4-6-11
50 cent Pick 4 (races 4-7): 1-4-6-11/1-11/5-6/5-6 ($16)
Comments: #11 Tammy’s Kiss (9-2) is a $285k Good Magic FTS and he is a 15% debut sire. Bauer is a profitable 23% FTS and 24% with debut MSW runners. #1 Hedge Book(7-2) hit the board in both starts. She was 7-2 in her bow and rallied for the show at 7.5T, and she moved to dirt and was 6 lengths clear of the show at 40 cents on the dollar March 27. She worked in company with Emerging Market at CD April 24 and Chad Brown’s $400k Practical Joke filly reunites with her debut pilot Prat. #4 Couplet (6-1) is out of 17% win early sire Gun Runner and her dam Spring in the Air won three stakes including the G1 Alcibiades and she has produced three winners from six starters. She drilled a local 5f bullet for this April 10 and Hernandez is 21% when he rides for McCarthy. This Juddmonte filly might be a runner. #6 Passerine (8-1) is a Godolphin FTS making her belated debut. She was training at Churchill last summer but never made it to the races as a juvenile. She has been breezing steadily in Florida since February and sports a pair of gate moves for this. Nyquist is a 16% debut sire and dam has tossed four winners from six starters (1 stakes winner). Ortiz Jr. is 8-for-18 with Brad Cox recently.
CD 5 (MSW, 8T)
Primary – #11 ROYAL GUARD, #1 Bridgesong
Secondary – #10 Prepped, #6 Executive
Wagers: #11 to win, Exacta box 1-11, Trifecta 1-11/1-6-10-11/1-6-10-11
50 cent Pick 5 (races 5-9): 1-11/5-6/5-6/8-9/2-7 ($16)
50 cent All Turf Pick 4 (races 5, 7, 10, 12): 1-6-10-11/5-6/6/3-5-6-8-9-11 ($24)
Comments: #11 Royal Guard (5-1) scratched from a MSW turf route at KEE April 11 (race 11). He returns from a layoff of 7+ months for Brad Cox and he reconnects with his debut pilot Ortiz, Jr. He was 3rd in his 7f bow in the slop (off the turf), and was bumped at the start and ended up 4th of 10 (beaten 12 length) in a turf route second time out. He adds lasix, breezed on turf at Payson on March 22, March 28, and April 4, and he worked twice at KEE since the aforementioned scratch. #1 Bridgesong (8-1) was 35-1 in his 7f bow Feb. 7 and he made an early wide move from 7th to 1st before ending up fourth, and the 2-3 finishers were next-out winners. He was the 2-1 favorite in a flat mile dirt race second time out March 28 and he checked early, pulled up, and walked off. Bauer is 6-for-18 with the blinkers on move and Gaffalione takes the call. He has turf influences in his pedigree and probably deserves another chance. #10 Prepped (3-1) was the favorite in all four starts and hit the board in his last three turf routes at FG for DeVaux. The $300k More Than Ready colt added blinkers and earned a decent late pace rating March 21. His new rider Jose Ortiz is 22% with this outfit and he is a profitable 27% on turf. #6 Executive (4-1) hit the board in four of five turf starts. Friday’s pilot Alvarado (+ROI turf rider) has ridden him three times and he completed the trifecta in all of those races. Mott’s $900k Constitution colt exits a second place finish at GP.
CD 6 (OC-125k/1x, 6.5f)
Primary – #5 PAIGE TURNER, #6 Carmel Coast
Secondary – #12 French Blue
Wagers: #5 to win, Exacta 5/6-12, Exacta 6-12/5
50 cent Pick 4 (races 6-9): 5-6-12/5-6/8-9/2-4-7-8 ($24)
Comments: #5 Paige Turner (4-1) ran well in all three starts last year and improved her numbers each time. She was 6-1 in her SAR bow last summer and she stalked the pace and landed the place. She was the favorite from post 11 at 7f second time out and she stalked and graduated by 5 1/4 lengths. She was the chalk when last seen in the Fern Creek and stalked the pace and was clearly second best, and winner On Time Girl clicked right back in the G3 Forward Gal Jan. 31. Jose Ortiz got to know her last time and she adds lasix. #6 Carmel Coast (3-1) was 5-1 in her SAR debut last summer and got clear early and cruised by 5 1/2 lengths, and the 2-3 finishers were next-out winners. She was the favorite in the G1 Frizette second time out and set a pressured, above par pace and weakened to 6th of 10 (beaten 9 lengths). The returnee has been stabled at CD since March and shows four local moves for this, and she adds lasix and Gaffalione takes the call. Beckman is a profitable 20% with this type of layoff runner. #12 French Blue (9-2) was the favorite in her SA dirt sprint bow from post 10 Jan. 8 and she pressed and earned her diploma by 2 1/4 lengths (show finisher next-out winner). She stretched out, set the pace, and was best of the rest in third in the G3 Santa Ysabel second time out (lasix off), and she removed blinkers, set a pressured pace, and weakened to 5th of 7 (beaten 24 lengths) in the G2 SA Oaks last time. She turns back, drops in class, and goes back on lasix, and her new rider Prat is 3-for-5 with Baffert. She had a local 4f work April 25. #3 Nimah (8-1) looked good wiring the field as the strong favorite in her 6.5f bow at DMR last fall. She was 40 cents on the dollar in the G2 Starlet at 8.5f second time out and she dueled on the lead and was miles clear of the rest in a show finish. Baffert is 32% with his first lasix starters and the $550k Gun Runner filly had a decent 5f gate move for this at SA April 19. Hernandez strings along and he is profitable 31% with this outfit. #1 Where Luck Lives (6-1) was 4-1 in her local 5f bow (June 2025) and she stalked wide from an outer post and finished 4th of 10. She returned from a layoff of 9+ months and battled on the pace from the outside post and graduated by a length and a quarter in the slop April 3 (first lasix). The $725k Nyquist filly should impact the pace from the inside post for the profitable Rosario/Lynch team.
CD 7 (G2 Unbridled Sidney, 5.5T) – CD Best Bet
Primary – #5 QUEEN MAXIMA, #6 Shisospicy
Secondary – #9 Shoot It True, #4 Creed’s Gold
Wagers: #5 to win, Exacta box 5-6, Trifecta 5-6/4-5-6-9/4-5-6-9
50 cent Pick 5 (races 7-12): 5-6/8-9/2-7/6/1-5-7-9 ($16)
Comments: #5 Queen Maxima (7-2) captured seven of her last ten starts and was the favorite in nine of those races. Five of those were stakes victories including a smart score in this race last spring. She won the G3 Las Cienegas in January and was best of the rest in third in the G3 Monrovia last time. She sports back-to-back SA bullets for this and her regular rider Hernandez will probably put her in a good stalking spot, and she might offer a hint of value this time. #6 Shisospicy (9-5) is 6-for-9 overall and won her lone local try in the G3 Mamzelle at 5.5T May 2025. Her lone loss on turf was a 15th of 21 in the G1 Commonwealth Cup at Ascot (June 2025). She is 5-for-5 in turf sprints in North America including a last-out wire job in the G1 BC Turf Sprint (November 2025). Ortiz Jr. is 4-for-4 with her and she sports multiple bullets for this and should be all over the pace. #9 Shoot It True (6-1) easily won back-to-back turf sprints at this distance at SAR last summer, and she shipped to Del Mar for a BC undercard stakes and landed the place in that $200k affair at 5T last fall. She returned from a layoff and rallied for the place at KEE April 4 (Alw-130k/2x, 5.5T), and the pace was below par. This is her second start off the bench and she should get more pace to chase this time. #4 Creed’s Gold (20-1) is very consistent for Casse. She fired trifecta shots in nine of her last ten starts and Prat is her new pilot. She won the G3 Hendrie on synthetic last year and was first in the Lightning City at 5T and second in the G2 Giant’s Causeway at 5.5T in her last pair. She figures to stalk the pace at square odds.
CD 8 (G2 Eight Belles, 7f) – CD Best Bet
Primary – #9 ON TIME GIRL, #8 Goodall
Secondary – #7 Luv Your Neighbor
Wagers: #9 to win, Exacta 8-9/7-8-9, Trifecta 8-9/all/7
20 cent Derby City 6 (races 8-13): 8-9/2-7/6/1-5-9/3-9/1-2-5-9-
Comments: #9 On Time Girl (5-2) is 4-for-6 with a second and a third. She attended the pace and won her first two starts at 6f, and she landed the place as the beaten favorite in the Myrtlewood at KEE last October. She pressed and kicked away to win the Fern Creek at 6.5f in November, and she stalked and scored by 3 lengths as the favorite in the G3 Forward Gal at this 7f distance Jan. 31. She raced wide from the outside post and was best of the rest in third (beaten 6 lengths) when last seen in the G2 Davona Dale at one mile (one turn). Ortiz Jr. strings along and she sports two local moves for this, and she is 2-for-2 at CD and 1-for-1 at 7f. An outside tactical trip is expected. #8 Goodall (3-1) was 7-2 in her 6f bow at FG Jan. 17 and she made the running and ended up 2nd of 12. She set a pressured pace and dug in and earned her diploma by a half-length as the favorite second time out, and she went off lasix, chased from second, and kicked away to win the Purple Martin by 4 1/2 lengths at 5-1 odds March 14. It is a good sign that she sat in second without lasix and earned an improved number last time. I like her early-pressing versatility and outer draw, and she is a logical contender under her new rider Prat if she handles the added furlong of this race. They paid $525k for this Yaupon filly and she sports four local moves for this. #7 Luv Your Neighbor (6-1) has distance limitations and that is why she is running here at 7f instead of the G1 Ky Oaks at 9f. She fired trifecta shots in all six conventional dirt outings. She won her debut in the slop at 7f, misfired on all-weather ground second time out, and was second in the slop on 12-4-25. She ended 2025 with a head defeat in the Untapable (1m 70yds), and was second by a neck in Silverbulletday (1m 70yds), second by a half-length in the G2 Rachel Alexandra (blinkers on – 8.5f), and third by 8.5 lengths in the G2 FG Oaks (8.5f). Saez stays put and I like her tactical speed.
CD 9 (G2 Alysheba, 8.5f)
Primary – #2 BAEZA, #7 Skippylongstocking
Secondary – #8 Corporate Power, #4 Tappan Street
Wagers: #2 to win, Exacta 2-7/2-7-8, Trifecta 2-4-7/2-4-7/8
50 cent Late Pick 5 (races 9-13): 2-4-7-8/6/1-5-9/3-9/2-9 ($24)
Comments: #2 Baeza (5-2) had a fine 3-year-old season with a win in the G1 PA Derby, runner-up finishes in the G1 SA Derby and G2 Jim Dandy, and show finishes in the G1 Ky Derby and G1 Belmont. He ended 2025 with 6th of 9 in the G1 BC Classic. Mott is his new trainer and he sports two 5f bullets for this at Payson Park including a best of 4 gate move April 21. This is his first start in half a year and he might not be fully cranked for this, but he is probably fit enough to run a quality race. #7 Skippylongstocking (7-2) is back on top of his game at age 7. Saffie Joseph, Jr. has done a great job at getting him to thrive at this advanced age in this division, and he has done the same thing with White Abarrio. He was nowhere in the G1 Whitney and G2 CT Classic last year, and got back on track with wins in the G3 Harlan’s Holiday, G1 Pegasus, and G3 Essex. The sharp, versatile veteran is 5-for-6 at this distance and 0-for-2 with a show finish at CD. He reconnects with Gaffalione and Tyler has guided this one home three times. #8 Corporate Power (10-1) moved to the Asmussen barn and won an optional-claiming dirt route Feb. 19, and that was his first start since November 2024. He returned to the stakes ranks for the first time since 2024 and stalked the pace and missed by a half-length in a clear runner-up finish in the G2 New Orleans Classic March 21. This is his third start off a long layoff and he is 2-for-2 at this distance. His new rider Jose Ortiz is 24% with Asmussen and he sports three local works for this. #4 Tappan Street (4-1) was a flashy 3-year-old last year with a runner-up finish in his second career start in the G3 Holy Bull, and a victory over Sovereignty in the G1 Florida Derby. He was one of the Ky Derby favorites but was injured training for that race and went to the sidelines for 8+ months. He returned with an unspectacular win at 10 cents on the dollar in his flat mile OC return at GP December 2025, and was last of 12 at 3-1 odds in the G1 Pegasus World Cup in January. He worked a 5f bullet for this in Florida April 24 and Prat takes the call. He figures to sit a decent stalking trip but I am not sure if he is as good as he was prior to the pre-Derby injury last spring. #9 Disruptor (6-1) is cross-entered in the G1 Churchill Downs at 7f on Saturday and he more likely to run on Derby Day. He won both starts this year at TAM including the G3 Challenger March 7. Ortiz Jr. knows him well and will probably track the pace from the outside post if he goes here. He is training forwardly for Pletcher (2 Palm Beach Downs bullets).
CD 10 (G3 Modesty, 9T)
Primary – #6 GEZORA
Secondary – #5 Kathynmarissa, #3 Whiskey Decision, #2 Proctor Street
Wagers: Exacta 6-5, Trifecta key 6/3-5, Superfecta key 6/2-3-5
50 cent Late Pick 4 (races 10-13): 6/1/3-5-6-8-9-11/1-2-4-5-9-10 ($18)
50 cent Late Pick 4 (races 10-13): 6/1-5-7-9/9/1-2-4-5-9-10 ($12)
50 cent Late Pick 4 (races 10-13): 6/1-5-7-9/3-5-6-8-9-11/2 ($12)
50 cent Late Pick 4 (races 10-13): 2-3-5-6/1-5/3-6/2 ($8)
Comments: #6 Gezora (4-5) was 13th of 17 in the G1 Arc last year and her overseas form before that was strong. She won back-to-back turf races in May (G2) and June (G1), and was 2nd in a G1 at 12T on soft ground in August. After the Arc, she shipped to DMR and smartly captured the G1 BC F&M Turf at 11T November 2025. Chad Brown is her new trainer and Prat takes the call. I doubt that she is fully cranked to win a G3 off the bench, but this is not the deepest race and she will probably win this race on class. #5 Kathynmarissa (8-1) moved to the Chad Brown barn and was strong in a 9T OC win when last seen at SAR August 2025 (runner-up next-out winner). Prat had his choice of mounts for this barn and opted for 4-5 chalk Gezora, and Jose Ortiz is her new rider. She is 2-for-2 at this distance including a local win May 2024, and I like her tactical speed. #3 Whiskey Decision (4-1) moved to the Chad Brown barn last year and she won two of three turf route stakes. She earned a quality late pace rating in the Athenia and show finisher Awesome Czech beat NY-bred stakes foes in her next start. She returned from a layoff and rallied to finish 4th of 12 in the G2 Pegasus F&M Turf Jan. 24, and she stalked from the inside post and missed by a nose in the G2 Hillsborough as the 3-2 favorite at 9T March 7. Her new rider Ortiz Jr. is 2-for-4 with Brown recently and she is 1-for-1 at CD and 2-for-4 with a runner-up finish at 9T. #2 Proctor Street (6-1) was 6th in the G2 Pegasus F&M Turf and a close third in the G2 Hillsborough in her last pair. She ran well in both local turf attempts last year including a victory in the Cardinal at 9T in November. She sports a trio of local works for this and reconnects with her winning rider Gaffalione.
CD 11 (G1 La Troienne, 8.5f)
Primary – #1 BLESS THE BROKEN, #5 Shred the Gnar
Secondary – #9 Fully Subscribed, #7 Chasten
Wagers: #1 to win, Exacta box 1-5, Trifecta 1-5/1-5-7-9/1-5-7-9
Comments: #1 Bless the Broken (9-2) won the Bourbonette Oaks last year and rallied for the show in the G1 Ky Oaks. She was 4th of 6th in the G1 Acorn last June and went to the sidelines after that. She returned for her new trainer Brad Cox in an OC dirt route at FG Jan. 9 and she chased from second and won by 2 lengths (first lasix). She shipped to California and chased the pace and was second best to winning favorite Splendora in the G1 Beholder Mile March 7. She likes this distance and has improved her positional speed this year, and her new rider Ortiz Jr. should have running style options from the inside post. #5 Shred the Gnar (3-1) was terrible as the favorite in her G3 Royal Delta return and the top three finishers were next-out stakes winners (Claret Beret, Alpine Princess, Eunomia). She wired the field in three straight races after missing by a neck in her sprint bow last year including a smart score in the local G3 Chilukki (November 2025). She is 2-for-2 at CD and has been working here since early April, and she reconnects with her winning rider Saez and might bounce back if she gets to the front. #9 Fully Subscribed (7-2) got good late last year for Chad Brown. She convincingly won the G2 Mother Goose in November and the G3 Comely in December, and this is her first start since. She improved her numbers in all five starts and Prat got to know her last time. This is just a starting point and I am sure Brown wants to get her out to 9f in the near future. #7 Chasten (6-1) is faster this year for Brad Cox. She rallied from 11 lengths back to win her OC dirt route return at FG Jan. 10, and she cut back to a mile (one turn) and stalked and scored in the Sandy Bottom at CNL March 14. Friday’s rider Geroux has booted her home twice and she earned quality late pace ratings in her last pair.
CD 12 (G2 Edgewood, 8.5T) – CD Price Play
Primary – #9 DANDONA, #3 Imaginationthelady
Secondary – #8 Lion Lake, #5 Just Aloof, #6 Tam Tam, #11 Time to Dream
Wagers: #9 to win, Exacta box 3-9, Trifecta 3-9/3-5-8-9/3-5-6-8-9-11
Comments: #9 Dandona (6-1) was 40 cents on the dollar in her all-weather route bow August 2025 and she rallied to graduate by a half-length. She returned from a layoff of 5+ months and rallied for the show at 18-1 odds in a slow early/fast late turf route Feb. 7 (OC-75k/1x, 8.5T), and she rallied to win the G3 Florida Oaks at 5-1 odds March 7 (8.5T). They paid $1.05 million for this Tiz the Law filly and she earned quality late pace ratings in her last two turf outings. Prat abandons for Just Aloof and her new rider Jose Ortiz is a profitable 27% turf pilot. #3 Imaginationthelady (4-1) scored in her first two turf starts in KY last year including the G2 Jessamine at KEE last fall. She was 4th of 12 in the G1 BC Juvenile Fillies on 10-31-25, and she returned from a layoff and rallied to miss by a neck from the outer post in the G2 Appalachian at 7-2 odds April 4 (first start in 5+ months). Gaffalione got to know the $300k Not This Time filly last time and she fired a 5f bullet for this at TP April 23. #8 Lion Lake (8-1) won back-to-back turf starts at GP in January and February, and went from maiden winner to G3 winner Feb. 28. Her number jumped up in the G3 Herecomesthebride and she sat in midpack and missed by a neck in the G2 Appalachian April 4. She is getting faster for Walsh and Johnny V got to know her last time. She drilled a 5f bullet for this at TP April 23. #5 Just Aloof (8-1) won both flat mile turf starts last year including a G3 at DMR in November. She returned in the common G2 Appalachian and stalked the pace and missed by a half-length. Prat sticks with Chad Brown’s tactical filly and she should be forwardly placed in a race lacking font end speed. #6 Tam Tam (15-1) added lasix, removed blinkers, switched surfaces, and looked good graduating as the favorite in a flat mile turf affair at GP Feb. 7. She was my top choice in the Sanibel Island at 7.5T March 28 and she stalked and scored by a neck. The $975k Medaglia d’Oro filly was up on the pace in all five starts, Alvarado knows her now, and she is slowly getting faster. #11 Time to Dream (5-1) ran well in four of five turf routes with her lone clunker a 10th of 12 finish in the G1 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf.
CD 13 (G1 Kentucky Oaks, 9f) – Extended Analysis Included in Separate Oaks file
Primary – #2 ZANY, #9 Always a Runner
Secondary – #5 Meaning, #1 Explora, #10 Prom Queen, #12 Bella Ballerina
Oaks Wagers ($150):
Win ($50)
$30 to win #2
$20 to win #9
Exacta ($18)
$12 Exacta 2-9
$6 Exacta 9-2
Trifecta ($48)
$2 Trifecta 2-9/2-9/1-3-4-5-10-11 ($24)
$1 Trifecta 2-9/1-4-5-10-11-12/2-9 ($12)
$1 Trifecta 1-4-5-10-11-12/2-9/2-9 ($12)
Superfecta ($18)
$1 Superfecta 2/1-9-10/1-9-10/4-5-11 ($18)
Super High 5 ($16)
$1 Super High 5: 2/5-9/1-5-9/1-5-9-10/1-4-5-9-
Rolling Daily Double & Pick 3 Contenders – in order of preference:
1 (1-7-6-5)
2 (5-3-7-9-4)
3 (9-10-5-7-3)
4 (11-1-4-6)
5 (11-1-10-6)
6 (5-6-12)
7 (5-6-9-4)
8 (9-8-7)
9 (2-7-8-4)
10 (6-5-3-2)
11 (1-5-9-7)
12 (9-3-8-5-11-6)
13 (2-9-5-1-10-4)
ROLLING DAILY DOUBLE/PICK 3 WAGERING STRATEGIES
For Rolling Doubles and Pick 3 tickets, key the top choice in each race to all other contenders. See examples below:
Double (Race 1-2):
Ticket 1 (1-5)
Ticket 2 (1/3-4-5-7-9)
Ticket 3 (1-5-6-7/5)
Double (Races 2-3):
Ticket 1 (5-9)
Ticket 2 (5/3-5-7-9-10)
Ticket 3 (3-4-5-7-9/9)
Pick 3 (Race 1-3):
Ticket 1 (1-5-9)
Ticket 2 (1/3-4-5-7-9/3-5-7-9-10)
Ticket 3 (1-5-6-7/5/3-5-7-9-10)
Ticket 4 (1-5-6-7/3-4-5-7-9/9)
