CD Kentucky Derby Day Full Card Highlights for Saturday (5-2-26)
CD 1 POWERSHIFT ($4.14), Exacta ($10.72)
Double (races 1-2, $69.42)
Pick 3 (races 1-3, $513.68)
CD 5 Yellow Card/Joe Shiesty/Litigation Trifecta ($171.48)
CD 8 CRUDE VELOCITY (Best Bet #2, $5.14), Exacta ($10.80), Trifecta ($75.64)
Superfecta ($228.60), $1 Super High 5 ($506.74)
CD 9 STARK CONTRAST (Best Bet #3, $4.40), Exacta ($15.58)
Double (races 8-9, $10.22)
CD 11 RHETORICAL ($5.92)
CD 12 (Ky Derby) – $5 Golden Tempo/Renegade Exacta ($697.15)
CD 13 GILDED BANDIT ($5.68), Trifecta ($216.24)
*Full card highlights based on $2 wagers unless otherwise noted.
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CHURCHILL DOWNS full card for Saturday (5-2-26)
By Jarrod Horak
CD Weather: Partly Sunny. High 56.
CD Best Bets (races 4, 8, 9) – CD Price Plays (races 6, 10)
CD Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets included below
Special P3 & P4 tickets included below
20 cent Pick 6 tickets included below
Rolling Double & Pick 3 tickets included below
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May 2 Picks:
CD 1 (MSW, 8.5f)
Primary – #11 POWERSHIFT, #9 Winston Ave
Secondary – #3 Silent Way, #8 Bourbon Dream
Wagers: #11 to win, Exacta 3-8-11/9, Trifecta 9-11/3-8-9-11/3-8-9-11
50 cent Pick 5 (races 1-5): 3-9-11/4-8/5-10-12/5/3-7-9 ($27)
Comments: #11 Powershift (3-1) was the favorite in his dirt route bow and he stalked, led, and was 13 1/2 lengths in front of the show finisher. Emerging Market won that race for Chad Brown and he returned to take the G2 LA Derby, and distant show finisher Make My Day (Pletcher) was a next-out MSW winner in the slop. Pletcher’s $500k Constitution colt tried stakes foes in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby second time out and ended up 6th of 9, and Kentucky Derby contenders The Puma and Further Ado finished 1-2 that day. The $500k Constitution colt has been working in company with Renegade recently and he fired back-to-back bullets for this on March 25 and April 11. He reconnects with his winning rider Ortiz Jr. and he is 2-for-8 with Pletcher recently (all 8 finished in Top 3). #9 Winston Ave (9-2) is a $325k Quality Road colt for Baffert and he was clearly second best behind subsequent G2 San Vicente winner So Happy in his 6.5f debut. He was 8-1 in his bow and removed blinkers and was less than even money second time out (6.5f), and he chased inside and finished a flat 4th of 6 from the rail post. He stretched out after two sprints and was the favorite Feb. 27, and his stablemate Cherokee Nation ran away with that one and this colt was clearly second best (first lasix). He turned back and was the favorite at 6f April 4, and he stalked the pace and missed by a neck in a close show finish. Hernandez rides back and he is 31% with this outfit, and this one puts blinkers back on and stretches back out in his third start off a layoff. #3 Silent Way (4-1) improved his speed ratings in all three starts. He was 6-1 in his 6.5f bow last fall and he ended up 4th of 7 (runner-up next-out winner). He was 2-1 at 6f Feb. 15 and he broke slow from the inside post and finished an even 3rd of 5 (runner-up next-out winner). He stretched out after two sprints and chased the pace and was second best as the chalk at one mile April 2. Prat takes the call and the $700k McKinzie colt sports two works for this including a half-mile move at KEE April 25. #8 Bourbon Dream (5-1) was 52-1 in his flat mile bow at GP and he stalked from an outer post, led, and finished a length behind Sovereign Law. The number from his bow was solid and he breezed a half-mile for this at KEE March 28.
CD 2 (OC-125k/1x, 8.5f)
Primary – #4 MEMORY, #8 Taptastic
Secondary – #6 Make My Day, #1 Out of the Woods, #11 Lincoln’s Law, #2 Sovereign Law
Wagers: #4 to win, Exacta box 4-8, Trifecta 4-8/1-4-6-8/1-2-4-6-8-11
50 cent Early Pick 4 (races 2-5): 4/5-6-9-10-12/5/3-7-9-10 ($12)
50 cent Early Pick 4 (races 2-5): 1-2-4-6-8-11/12/5/3-7-9-10 ($12)
50 cent Early Pick 4 (races 2-5): 1-2-4-6-8-11/5-6-9-10-12/5/9 ($15)
50 cent Early Pick 4 (races 2-5): 4-8/5-12/4-5/7-9 ($8)
Comments: #4 Memory (9-2) was the 3-1 favorite in his 6.5f bow March 7 and he raced wide from an outer post and finished up the track. His talented stablemate Crude Velocity won that heat and returned to romp as the 1-2 choice in a fast dirt sprint at SA April 4, and clear runner-up Civil Liberty came back to graduate by 3 lengths at KEE April 12. This $775k Uncle Mo colt was 9-2 at one mile second time out and he stalked the pace and beat Silent Way (see race 1) by 3/4ths of a length in a relatively fast race. His new rider Prat is 3-for-5 with Baffert recently and he could easily be this good. #8 Taptastic (3-1) was less than even money in his flat mile bow in the mud at OP March 8 and he stalked the pace and graduated by a length and a half, and clear runner-up Dawn At Normandy returned to win at MSW dirt sprint as the even money choice March 28. This Tapit colt was 12-1 in the G1 Arkansas Derby March 28 and he stalked the pace and was best of the rest in third behind Ky Derby favorite Renegade. Ortiz Jr. is his new rider and a tactical trip is expected. #6 Make My Day (8-1) was 3-1 in his dirt route debut at TAM Feb. 7 and he rallied to finish a clear, distant third behind next-out LA Derby hero Emerging Market and his stablemate Powershift (see race 1). Pletcher $1.1 million Gun Runner colt was 5-2 in the slop at GP second time out and he made the lead and earned his diploma by a length and a half, and runner-up Stompin Grapes was 10 lengths clear of the rest. Saez stays put and he is 2-for-9 with Pletcher. #1 Out of the Woods (6-1) failed to deliver while facing decent foes in his first five starts in California (Mr. A. P., Cherokee Nation, Plutarch, Blacksmith). He shipped to OP and was 7-2 in a MSW dirt route April 3, and he made the running from the inside post and graduated by 2 3/4 lengths. D’Amato’s $325k Constitution gelding earned a much improved number last time and should be forwardly placed from the inside post under his new rider Johnny V. #11 Lincoln’s Law (10-1) chased the pace and scored by 2 1/2 lengths in his 6f bow at 6-1 odds Feb. 28. He ran into highly regarded Brad Cox speedster Cannoneer at one mile March 27 and he was beaten 9+ lengths, and he was 19+ in front of the show finisher. Bauer is 6-for-18 with the blinkers on move and he should be forwardly placed under his new rider Gaffalione. #2 Sovereign Law (8-1) was up the track from the inside post at 5-1 odds in his 6f bow and Lincoln’s Law won that heat. He was 3-1 at one mile second time out and he stalked from the outside post and won by a length. Prat rode him last time and he jumps over to Memory, and his new rider Franco is 7-for-14 with Brad Cox (13 Top 3 finishes).
CD 3 (OC-80k/2x, 8f)
Primary – #12 PRAETOR, #5 John Hancock
Secondary – #10 Vibe, #6 Who Dey, #9 Keewaydin
Wagers: #12 to win, Exacta 12/5-10, Exacta 5-10/12, Trifecta 5-10-12/5-6-9-10-12/5-6-9-10-12
50 cent Pick 5 (races 3-7): 5-10-12/5/7-9/2-6-10/3-8 ($18)
Comments: #12 Praetor (3-1) ran well in all five starts and his two wins were at one mile around one turn. He was third behind Gosger and Bracket Buster in the G3 Lexington last spring, and he returned from a layoff of 10+ months and stalked, led, and finished less than a length behind next-out G3 Ghostzapper hero Grande, and it was 14 1/2 lengths back to the show finisher. He was the favorite at seven panels at KEE April 4 and he pressed, led, and held the show. His winning maiden pilot Prat stays put and he should be forwardly placed. #5 John Hancock (6-1) was an also-eligible scratch in a similar 7f event at KEE April 4 (race 5), and he has breezed three times at that venue since that scratch. He won his first two starts as the favorite last year including the Sam F. Davis, and he went to the sidelines after setting the pace and weakening to 4th of 10 as the beaten chalk in the G2 LA Derby (March 2025). Brad Cox’s colt goes back on lasix and Ortiz Jr. is 16-for-48 with this barn. He drilled a 5f bullet in Florida back on March 25. #10 Vibe (6-1) competed at GP three times and won twice at this trip. He was beaten 15+ lengths in his 6f bow March 2025, and he added blinkers and aired by 9 lengths at one mile (one turn) second time out (April 2025). He returned from a long layoff and picked up where he left off in flat mile victory at GP March 14. Saez got acquainted with him last time and Pletcher is 22% with his second off a layoff starters. #6 Who Dey (9-2) drops out of the stakes ranks and the last two times he competed in the OC ranks at a lesser venue (BTP), he won. This is his first start since November 2025 and Drury Jr. is 16% with this type of layoff runner. He has won at CD before. #9 Keewaydin (8-1) exits a sharp extended sprint entry level allowance win at CNL for Walden. His maiden win was also at seven panels and we will see what he can do in this flat mile affair around one turn.
CD 4 (G1 Derby City Distaff, 7f) – CD Best Bet
Primary – #5 SPLENDORA
Secondary – #4 Ways and Means, #1 Usha
Wagers: #5 to win, Exacta 5-4, Trifecta key 5/1-4
50 cent Pick 4 (races 4-7): 5/9/2-6-7-10-11/2-3-4-8-9 ($12.50)
50 cent Pick 4 (races 4-7): 5/3-7-9-10/10/2-3-4-8-9 ($10)
50 cent Pick 4 (races 4-7): 5/3-7-9-10/2-6-7-10-11/3 ($10)
50 cent Pick 4 (races 4-7): 1-4-5/7-9/6-10/3-8 ($12)
50 cent All Dirt Pick 5 (races 4, 6, 8, 10, 12): 5/2-6-10/1-6/1-2-5-6-7/1-6 ($30)
Comments: #5 Splendora (2-1) ran her record at DMR to 4-for-4 with a sharp victory in the G1 BC F&M Sprint in November under Saturday’s rider Prat. Baffert’s mare returned from a layoff of 3+ months and tossed her head at this start and stalked and scored by 1 3/4 lengths in the local G2 Lukas (7f) as the strong favorite Feb. 7. She was the strong favorite in the G1 Beholder Mlle March 7 and made the lead and cruised by 5 3/4 lengths. She owns early-pressing versatility and was part of the exacta in 11 of 12 lifetime starts (7 wins). #4 Ways and Means (8-5) was third as the favorite in her G1 Derby City Distaff return last year, and she romped in the G2 Bed o Roses as the 1-2 favorite on 6-6-25 and has not been seen since. She is 0-for-2 with a show finish at CD (Ky Oaks, Derby City Distaff) and both were run on wet tracks. Jose Ortiz is her new rider and Chad Brown is 24% with this type of layoff runner, and she breezed a 4f bullet on April 3. #1 Usha (9-2) was vastly improved at DMR last summer. She aired by 11 lengths in her 6.5f MSW win at DMR in July (first lasix) and runner-up Margarita Girl returned to graduate as the favorite Aug. 21. This filly was the favorite in an OC-50k/1x affair at 6.5f in September and she easily went all the way as the favorite, and show finisher Shared Future was a next-out winner. She shipped to KEE, went off lasix, and pressed, led, and faded to 7th of 10 (beaten 10 lengths) in the G2 Raven Run in October. Baffert’s $600k Tiz the Law filly returned to California, reunited with her winning rider Hernandez, and rallied to win the G1 La Brea at 7f in December. She proved that she could run without lasix last time and she drilled a 5f bullet for this April 5.
CD 5 (G2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint, 5.5T)
Primary – #9 LITIGATION, #7 Yellow Card
Secondary – #3 My Boy Prince, #10 Joe Shiesty
Wagers: #9 to win, Exacta box 7-9, Trifecta 7-9/3-7-9-10/3-7-9-10
50 cent Pick 5 (races 5-9): 3-7-9-10/6-10/3-8/1-6/4-12 ($32)
50 cent All Turf Pick 4 (races 5, 7, 9, 11): 3-7-9-10/2-3-4-8-9/4-12/3-6 ($32)
Comments: #9 Litigation (3-1) is 5-for-8 with a runner-up finish in turf sprints. He won two GP stakes races at 5T for Lynch, and he rallied mildly to finish 4th of 12 as the favorite in the G2 Shakertown April 4. He stalked and scored in his lone local turf sprint attempt in 2025 and Ortiz Jr. is his new pilot. #7 Yellow Card (9-2) fired in four straight turf sprints from September 2024 thru September 2025. He was a close 5th as the beaten favorite in the Stormy Liberal at 5T in November, and he was an uncomfortable 6th of 10 at 6.5T in the G2 Joe Hernandez in December. He went last-to-first in the Clocker’s Corner as my top choice at 6T Feb. 8, and he rallied for the place under Saturday’s rider Prat in the G2 Shakertown at 5.5T April 4. #3 My Boy Prince (5-2) took a bad step and eased and walked off in the G1 Canadian International at 12T and that ended his 2025 campaign. He turned back and rallied to miss by a neck in the GP Turf Sprint Jan. 24, and he sat in midpack and got up by a neck in the Turf Sprint at TAM Feb. 14. The quality turf sprinter stalked and scored by a length and a quarter in the G2 Shakertown (5.5T) at KEE April 4. Jose Ortiz sticks with Mark Casse’s sharp, versatile gelding. He competed in three turf sprint stakes last year with a win in the Elusive Quality (6T) and runner-up finishes in the G1 Jaipur (5.5T) and G2 Highlander (6T). #10 Joe Shiesty (6-1) wired the field back-to-back all-weather stakes sprints at TP in December and March, and he set a pressured pace from post 11 and ended up 5th of 12 (beaten 1.5 lengths) in the G2 Shakertown last time. The 3-time turf sprint winner might be the one to reel in.
CD 6 (Knicks Overnight, 8f) – CD Price Play
Primary – #10 CAPITAL IDEA, #6 Tour Player
Secondary – #2 Dragoon Guard, #7 Will Take It, #11 Moonlight
Wagers: #10 to win, Exacta 10/2-6, Exacta 2-6/10, Trifecta 2-6-10/2-6-7-10-11/7-11
50 cent Pick 4 (races 6-9): 2-6-7-10-11/2-3-4-8-9/1-6/4-12 ($50)
Comments: #10 Capital Idea (5-1) ran well in all six starts since moving to the Bill Mott barn last year (3 wins). He cuts back in distance after a clear runner-up finish behind Grande in the G3 Ghostzapper March 28. His lone attempt at CD was a win in the slop last fall and his winning rider Alvarado is a profitable 26% with this outfit. #6 Tour Player (4-1) captured five of his last seven starts and he is 4-for-5 at CD and 4-for-6 at one mile. Saturday’s rider Prat guided him home at CNL March 14 and I like his tactical speed and middle post. #2 Dragoon Guard (3-1) is usually in the mix for a top two finish. He should be forwardly placed for the productive Ortiz Jr/Cox team. #7 Will Take It (8-1) is a 2-time local winner with three scores at one mile. He won back-to-back local races at one mile last year including the Hanshin, and he captured the Fifth Season at OP March 5. He exits a 5th of 7 in the G3 Oaklawn Mile. Brian Hernandez, Jr. hops aboard and he booted this one home three times last year. #11 Moonlight (8-1) is back around one turn and he likes this oval (5 3-1-0). He went last-to-first in the local Cherokee Mile last fall and that was his third win at this specialty distance. He disappointed in his last two graded dirt routes at FG and his winning rider Jose Ortiz keeps the faith.
CD 7 (G2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile, 8T)
Primary – #3 PORTFOLIO DURATION, #8 Pin Up Betty
Secondary – #2 Sweet Rebecca, #4 Temptable, #9 Maggie Go
Wagers: #3 to win, Exacta 3/2-8, Exacta 2-8/3, Trifecta 3-8/2-3-4-8-9/2-3-4-8-9
20 cent Derby City 6 (races 7-12): 2-3-8/1-6/4-12/2-5-6/3-6-9/1-6 ($43.20)
Comments: #3 Portfolio Duration (4-1) was the favorite in all three starts. She rallied to miss by a neck under Saturday’s rider Prat in her 8.5T bow February 2025 (show finisher next-out winner). She stalked and graduated by 5+ lengths from the outside post at 20 cents on the dollar second time out (December 2025), and she stalked and scored by 4+ lengths at 40 cents on the dollar at 8T March 28. Chad Brown’s filly earned a better number last time. Is she the next turf star for this barn? #8 Pin Up Betty (7-2) needed her G1 return at KEE in April and was hardly embarrassed that day (beaten 2.75 lengths). She is 4-for-7 with a runner-up finish in local turf routes and might go better in her second start of the year. #2 Sweet Rebecca (5-2) moved to the Walsh barn and ran fast in an optional-claiming victory Feb. 6, and she clicked right back as the favorite in the Sand Springs March 28. The 5-for-8 mare is 3-for-3 at GP and this is her first local start. Gaffalione strings along and he guided this one home four times, and her tactical speed should serve her well. #4 Temptable (8-1) was 7th of 11 (beaten 3.25 lengths) at 11-1 odds in the G3 Goldikova last fall. Mott has her now and his main rider Alvarado takes the call, and the Juddmonte filly sports two Payson Park bullets for this including a best of 34 move at four panels April 6. She won three races in France last year and might be this good. #9 Maggie Go (8-1) ran well in her last two turf routes at GP including a win under Saturday’s pilot Ortiz Jr. Feb. 21. She seems to be getting faster and will need to work out a trip from the outside post.
CD 8 (G2 Pat Day Mile, 8f) – CD Best Bet
Primary – #6 CRUDE VELOCITY, #1 Englishman
Secondary – #7 Crown the Buckeye, #5 Stop the Car, #4 Secured Freedom
Wagers: #6 to win, Exacta 6-1, Trifecta 1-6/1-4-5-6-7/4-5, Superfecta 6/1-7/1-4-5-7/1-4-5-7, Super High 5: 1-6/1-6/4-5-7/4-5-7/4-5-7
50 cent Pick 5 (races 8-12): 1-6/4-12/2-5/3-6/1-6-9-12-15-18 ($48)
$3 All 3YO Stakes Pick 3 (races 8, 9, 12): 6/4/1-6-9-12-15-18 ($18)
$3 All 3YO Stakes Pick 3 (races 8, 9, 12): 6/2-4-6-8-12/1 ($15)
$3 All 3YO Stakes Pick 3 (races 8, 9, 12):1-4-5-6-7/4/1 ($15)
Comments: #6 Crude Velocity (5-2) might be Baffert’s best 3-year-old and a start in the Preakness is possible if he wins this race impressively. He rallied from the inside post to beat next-out winner Civil Liberty by a neck at 10-1 odds in his 6.5f bow. He removed blinkers and stalked and romped by 5+ lengths as the 1-2 favorite vs. older OC sprinters April 4 and he earned a BSF of 100 that day. Baffert’s $250k Beau Liam colt has Lemon Drop Kid on the bottom of the pedigree so the added distance should not be a problem. He sports two bullets for this including a 1:11 flat move at six panels April 24. #1 Englishman (3-1) has done nothing wrong for Cherie DeVaux. He made the running and aired over a next-out winner at 2-1 odds in his local seven panel bow September 2025. He was 10 cents on the dollar in his 6f return at KEE March 19 and got loose early and dominated his competition by 7+ lengths (first lasix). He goes off lasix and shows a pair of KEE bullets for this, and the $400k Maxfield colt should be all over the pace from the inside post under his regular rider Jose Ortiz. #7 Crown the Buckeye (6-1) battled on the pace and was clearly second best in the G3 Gotham at one mile (one turn) Feb. 28. He is 2-for-3 with a runner-up finish in races around one turn and his new rider Prat should have early-pressing options from post 7. #5 Stop the Car (20-1) won his first two starts around one turn including a local OC affair at this trip. He had outer posts (9, 12) in his last two Derby points races around two turns and ended up 7th and 4th. He reconnects with Gaffalione and Tyler is 2-for-2 with him. He can spice up the exotics. #4 Secured Freedom (20-1) looked good graduating at 6.5f second time out and raced evenly when finishing third in the G3 Robert Lewis and fourth in the G2 San Felipe in his last pair. Cutting back in distance is a positive and I can see him stalking the pace and getting a piece of the purse under his new rider Johnny V.
CD 9 (G1 American Turf, 8.5T) – CD Best Bet
Primary – #4 STARK CONTRAST, #12 Remember Mamba
Secondary – #8 Greenwich Village, #2 Let’s Be Frank, #6 Black Hornet
Wagers: #4 to win, Exacta 4/8-12, Exacta 8-12/4, Trifecta 4-8-12/2-4-6-8-12/2-6, Superfecta 4/8-12/8-12/2-6/2-6
50 cent Pick 4 (races 9-12): 4-8-12/2-5-6/3-6-9/1-6-12 ($40.50)
Comments: #4 Stark Contrast (4-1) had enough qualifying points to run in the Ky Derby but he is a 2-time turf route stakes winner and this was always the most likely target. He was 4th of 6th (beaten 11 lengths) in his dirt sprint bow, and he rallied to beat Medici by a length as the favorite from an outer post in a turf route second time out. He saved ground behind the speed from the inside post in the G3 Zuma Beach Oct. 5 and won that race by a length. He was on the upswing heading into the G1 BC Juvenile Turf on Oct. 31 and he stalked the pace and was second best as a 58-1 longshot and overseas runner Gstaad won that race impressively. He was 30 cents on the dollar in the Eddie Logan at 8T Jan. 8 and he pressed from second and won by 2 1/4 lengths. They moved to all-weather ground in the G3 Jeff Ruby at TP March 21 and he sat in midpack from post 11 and was second best to Fulleffort. Prat is his new rider and he has been working this horse at CD, and his running style versatility should allow him to make his own trip from a comfortable post. He is 3-for-4 with a runner-up on turf. #12 Remember Mamba (9-2) captured all three turf routes as the favorite for Ortiz/DeVaux and improved his numbers in all three starts. He stalked from third in his first two starts, and rallied from 7th to win by a half-length in the G3 Transylvania at KEE April 3. #8 Greenwich Village (6-1) is talented and versatile for Baffert and he is getting faster. He dueled and prevailed by a half-length in his LRC bow December 2025, and he broke slow from the inside post, recovered to press the pace, and weakened to last of 5 in the G2 San Vicente Jan. 10 (So Happy 1st). He removed blinkers, switched to turf, and went last-to-first in the Baffle at 6.5T Jan. 25, and he stretched out, stalked lively fractions, and surged late to prevail by a nose in the Pasadena at 8T Feb. 22. Hernandez is 3-for-3 with him and he sports two bullets for this including a 6f gate bullet April 18. I would like to get #2 Let’s Be Frank (30-1) somewhere underneath at long odds. The maiden rallied for the show in his 6T bow last September and the runner-up was a next-out winner. He added blinkers and rallied from post 10 to finish third by a length in the G2 Pilgrim second time out, and he raced in traffic and was 11th of 14 (beaten 9.75 lengths) at 28-1 odds in the G1 BC Juvenile Turf October 2025 (Stark Contrast 2nd). He moved to the McCarthy barn and rallied to finish a clear second as the even money favorite in a MSW turf route at SA March 20 and front running winner Call Me Cory clicked right back. Profitable, 23% turf rider Franco takes the call and he should be heard from late. #6 Black Hornet (20-1) was no threat in the G3 Jeff Ruby on all-weather ground March 21. Getting back on turf might make a real difference (2-for-2 on turf). He rallied to graduate at 8.5T Feb. 5 and the show finisher was a next-out winner. He stalked and scored in the Black Gold at 8.5T feb. 28 and the 2-3 finishers were next-out winners. I like the late pace ratings he earned in both turf starts and he might spice up the exotics.
CD 10 (G1 Churchill Downs, 7f) – CD Price Play
Primary – #5 DISRUPTOR, #2 Cornucopian
Secondary – #6 Knightsbridge, #1 Disco Time, #7 Imagination
Wagers: #5 to win, Trifecta key 5/1-2-6-7, Trifecta 1-2-6-7/5/1-2-6-7
50 cent Pick 5 (races 10-14): 2-5-6/3-6-9/1-6/8-10/7-14 ($36)
Comments: #5 Disruptor (8-1) is cross-entered in the G2 Alysheba (8.5f) on May 1, and as of this writing, this was the most likely spot. He won both starts this year at TAM including the G3 Challenger March 7. Ortiz Jr. knows him well and he is 2-for-3 with a runner-up finish at seven panels. He is training forwardly for Pletcher (2 Palm Beach Downs bullets), drew well, and should offer value. #2 Cornucopian (7-2) set a pressured pace as the chalk and dusted a next-out winner in his 6f bow at OP February 2025. They threw him right into the G1 Arkansas Derby second time out and he got cooked in a speed duel and faded to 4th of 9. He pressed and finished 2nd of 3 in an OC prep for the Preakness April 2025 and went to the sidelines after that. He was supposed to run in the G1 Malibu December 2025 but was restless in the paddock and scratched. He was more relaxed and professional in both sprint starts this year and earned quality numbers both times. He beat OC foes at SA Jan. 31 (6.5f), and stalked and scored in the G3 San Carlos at 7f March 29. He drilled a 6f bullet for this in 1:11 and change April 10 and could easily be this good. #6 Knightsbridge (9-5) is 6-for-8 with a second and a third for Mott. He added blinkers and won by 2 3/4 lengths as the favorite at 7f in November, and he picked up his first graded win in the G3 Mr. Prospector as the favorite at 7f in December (1st by 4 3/4 lengths). He made it three straight victories when capturing the G3 Fred Hooper Jan. 24, and kept on trucking in a facile victory as the strong favorite in the G3 GP Mile Feb. 28. I like his early-pressing versatility and he is 1-for-1 at CD and 3-for-4 with a show finish at 7f. He fired half-mile bullets at Payson prior to the G3 Fred Hooper and G2 GP Mile, and he drilled a 5f bullet for this April 11. #1 Disco Time (6-1) is 5-for-7 with a runner-up finish. He stalked the pace and was clearly second best to Disruptor in the G3 Challenger last time (8.5f). He easily won all three starts around one turn including the Dwyer. He is 2-for-2 at CD and 1-for-1 at 7f, and he will probably chase the pace from the inside post. #7 Imagination (6-1) ran in longer races including the G1 Preakness earlier in his career, and he has had success in multiple races around one turn since December 2024 (3rd G1 Malibu). He won the G2 SA Sprint at 6f last fall and rallied for the place in the G1 BC Sprint, and he exits a sprint victory in a G2 in Saudi Arabia Feb. 14. Prat rode him last time and stays aboard, and he has stalking speed and might not be out of this.
CD 11 (G1 Turf Classic, 9T)
Primary – #6 RHETORICAL, #3 Asbury Park
Secondary – #9 Test Score, #5 Mercante, #10 Make Me King, #4 Program Trading
Wagers: #6 to win, Exacta 6/3-9, Exacta 3-9/6, Trifecta 6/3-5-9/3-4-5-9-10
50 cent Pick 4 (races 11-14): 3-5-6-9-10/1-6-9-12-15-18/8/7-8-14 ($45)
Comments: #6 Rhetorical (5-2) is a lightly 5-year-old NY-bred gelding with a 5-for-8 record (2 show finishes). William Walden’s talented runner got tested for class in the G1 Turf Mile at KEE last fall and he stalked the pace and beat Program Trading by 3/4ths of a length. He chased strong fractions from post 11, led, and ended up 4th of 13 (beaten 2 lengths) in the G1 BC Mile at the end of his productive 2025 campaign. He returned from a layoff of 5+ months and stalked from the inside post and finished a solid third in his G1 Maker’s Mark Mile return April 10. Ortiz Jr. knows him well and he stretches out a furlong in his second start off the bench. The early-pressing type has struck three times at 1 1/16 miles and I am not concerned about the added ground. #3 Asbury Park (8-1) improved his late speed in all five starts for Chad Brown. He just missed the place in the Saranac Sept. 1 and enjoyed the 11T distance in a sharp 2-length victory in the G3 Jockey Club at AQU October 2025. This is his first start of the year and he reconnects with his winning maiden pilot Prat, and Flavien seemingly choice him over Brown’s other entrant #4 Program Trading (4-1). The latter exits an even show finish in the G2 Muniz Classic and does not seem to be as good as he was in the past. He won the G1 Saratoga Derby in 2023 and the G1 Turf Classic at CD in 2024, and he is a combined 0-for-6 from June 2024 thru March 2026 (3 minor awards). #9 Test Score (7-2) captured multiple stakes races as a sophomore in 2025 and started 2026 the right way with a G2 victory at GP. Franco sticks with Motion’s tactical colt and he is fast and sharp enough to win this. #5 Mercante (12-1) exits a runner-up finish in his G3 synthetic route return at TP (March 21). He won a G3 turf route at CD last spring and might surprise for low profile connections. #10 Make Me King (6-1) ships in from Dubai and Jose Ortiz rides. The new face probably deserves a look.
CD 12 (G1 Kentucky Derby, 10f) – Extensive Derby analysis included in separate file
Primary – #1 RENEGADE, #6 Commandment
Secondary – #12 Chief Wallabee, #9 The Puma, #18 Further Ado, #15 Emerging Market
Wagering amounts are a guide. Bet what you can afford and stay within your comfort level.
For those wanting to make an across the board bet, I like using the win-insurance formula. For every $2 you bet to win, play $4 to place and $12 to show. $2 win, $4 place, $12 show ($18 total), and you can double or triple that wager, etc.
Win Wagers ($100):
$60 to win #1 Renegade
$40 to win #6 Commandment
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EXACTA ($200)
$10 Exacta box 1-6 ($20)
$6 exacta 1/6-7-8-9-11-12-14-15-18-19 ($60)
$5 exacta 6-7-8-9-11-12-14-15-18-19/1 ($50)
$4 exacta 6/1-7-8-9-11-12-14-15-18-19 ($40)
$3 exacta 1-7-8-9-11-12-14-15-18-19/6 ($30)
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TRIFECTA ($100)
50 cent Trifecta key 1/6-7-8-9-11-12-14-15-18 ($36)
50 cent Trifecta 6-9-12-15-18/1/6-7-8-9-11-12-14-15-18 ($20)
50 cent Trifecta 6-9-12-15-18/6-7-8-9-11-12-14-15-18/1 ($20)
50 cent Trifecta 12-15/1-12-15/1-6-9-11-12-15-18-19 ($12)
50 cent Trifecta 6-9-12-15/6-9-12-15/1-19 ($12)
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SUPERFECTA ($16)
$1 Superfecta 6-18/6-9-12-15-18/1-19/1-19 ($16)
————
SUPER HIGH 5 ($4)
$1 Super High Five: 1/6-19/6-19/9-12/9-12 ($4)
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CD 13 (OC-125k/1x, 6.5f)
Primary – #8 GILDED BANDIT, #10 Buetane
Secondary – #5 Hulkamania, #11 Noble Affair, #1 Small Town
Wagers: #8 to win, Exacta box 8-10, Trifecta 8-10/1-5-8-10-11/1-5-8-10-11
Comments: #8 Gilded Bandit (3-1) was 3-1 in his 6f bow at GP Feb. 28 and he broke slow from post 10 and rallied to miss the show by a neck. He added blinkers second time out and stalked and scored by a half-length at this distance at KEE April 4. He earned a quality number last time and could easily score again for the productive Alvarado/Mott team. #10 Buetane (5-2) gets class relief and is probably best sprinting. He was 30 cents on the dollar in his 6f bow at DMR last summer and he chased from second and won by 3 1/2 lengths. He shipped to SAR for the G1 Hopeful second time out and hooked unbeaten 2-year-old champ Ted Noffey and ended up a distant second. He returned from a layoff of 4+ months and rallied to finish a clear second as the beaten 1-2 favorite in the G2 San Vicente at 7f on Jan. 10 (So Happy 1st). He shipped to OP for the G3 Southwest at 8.5f Feb. 6 and he battled on the pace and fought hard to the end in a solid show finish. He was bottled up from the inside post and had nowhere to go from the inside post in a 4th of 10 as the 3-2 favorite in the Virginia Derby March 14, and he chased wide from post 11 and came up empty in the G2 Wood Memorial. The $1.15 million Tiz the Law colt gets the services of Ortiz Jr. and Baffert is 32% with his first lasix starters. #5 Hulkamania (8-1) was 2-1 in his 7f debut on Feb. 8 and he stalked and smartly graduated by 4 lengths (runner-up next-out winner). He was 18-1 in the G3 TB Derby second time out and was in way too deep and faded to 8th of 9 (beaten 18 lengths) after chasing the pace early. He goes back on lasix, turns back, and drops in class. His new rider Gaffalione is 1-for-4 with this outfit and he has been stabled at CD since late March (5 local works for this). #11 Noble Affair (9-2) owns an ascending numbers pattern. He rallied to finish a close third in his 5.5T bow at 3-1 odds late last year, and he moved to dirt and wired the field from an outer post at 3-1 odds at FG Jan. 24. He was less than even money in a dirt sprint at OP March 28 and he pressed, led, and missed by a neck. Jose Ortiz hops aboard Asmussen’s $600k Vekoma colt and he should impact the pace from the outside post. #1 Small Town (8-1) ran well in both all-weather sprints and McCarthy’s surface switcher attracts Prat.
CD 14 (MSW, 7f)
Primary – #14 BRAVE PILOT, #7 Act of Parliament
Secondary – #8 Find No Fault, #3 Interrogator, #9 Big Jake
Wagers: #14 to win, Exacta 7-14/7-8-14, Trifecta 3-7-9-14/3-7-9-14/8
Comments: #14 Brave Pilot (8-1) is a Constitution FTS for Juddmonte and his sire is 15% with debut runners, and dam has tossed two winners from four starters. He drilled a local 5f bullet for this March 28 and Hernandez is 3-for-15 with this outfit. #7 Act of Parliament (6-1) is a $750k Quality Road FTS and dam’s first starter won. Brad Cox is a profitable 22% debut MSW trainer and Saez is 2-for-5 with this outfit. He drilled Payson Park bullets for this on Feb. 8 and March 27. #8 Find No Fault (9-2) was 3-1 in his dirt sprint bow at GP March 29 and he stalked the pace and was second best, and the show finisher was a next-out winner. Romans is a profitable 20% with second timers and Gaffalione stays put, and he sports three local works for this. #3 Interrogator (6-1) is a $500k Omaha Beach FTS for Asmussen and dam has produced two winners from as many starters (1 stakes winner). Ortiz Jr. takes the call and he drilled back-to-back Houston bullets for this on March 14 and March 21, and he fired a local 5f gate bullet for this April 10. #9 Big Jake (8-1) is a $150k Army Mule FTS for Baffert and Prat takes the mount. He sports a pair of SA gate moves for this.
Rolling Daily Double & Pick 3 Contenders – in order of preference:
1 (11-9-3-8)
2 (4-8-6-1-11-2)
3 (12-5-10-6-9)
4 (5-4-1)
5 (9-7-3-10)
6 (10-6-2-7-11)
7 (3-8-2-4-9)
8 (6-1-7-5-4)
9 (4-12-8-2-6)
10 (5-2-6-1-7)
11 (6-3-9-5-10-4)
12 (1-6-9-12-18-15)
13 (8-10-5-11-1)
14 (14-7-8-3-9)
ROLLING DAILY DOUBLE/PICK 3 WAGERING STRATEGIES
For Rolling Doubles and Pick 3 tickets, key the top choice in each race to all other contenders. See examples below:
Double (Race 1-2):
Ticket 1 (11-4)
Ticket 2 (11/1-2-4-6-8-11)
Ticket 3 (3-8-9-11/4)
Double (Races 2-3):
Ticket 1 (4-12)
Ticket 2 (4/5-6-9-10-12)
Ticket 3 (1-2-4-6-8-11/12)
Pick 3 (Race 1-3):
Ticket 1 (11-4-12)
Ticket 2 (11/1-2-4-6-8-11/5-6-9-11-12)
Ticket 3 (3-8-9-11/4/5-6-9-11-12)
Ticket 4 (3-8-9-11/1-2-4-6-8-11/12)
