The Grade 1 Blue Grass was the latest road to Kentucky Derby 2025 points race, and Burnham Square nipped stubborn front runner East Avenue. In this report, I will recap the Blue Grass, SA Derby, UAE Derby, and Wood Memorial, update the Derby points standings, and share my latest exceptional 11 Derby contenders.
The Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, April 12 is the final Kentucky Derby points race (20-10-6-4-2).
Lexington field (April 12): 1 – Hard as Life (30-1), 2 – Bracket Buster (20-1), 3 – Bullard (9-2), 4 – Rolando (scratched), 5 – Native Runner (15-1), 6 – Gosger (7-2), 7 – Praetor (2-1), 8 – Hypnus (6-1), 9 – Touchy (scratched).
Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Race Recaps
Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby (4-5-25): This race lived up to top billing. Westwood, a 44-1 maiden for John Shirreffs, was aggressively handled from post 2 and was in front after a quarter. Citizen Bull wanted the lead but could not get it under Martin Garcia, and he eased out to chase Westwood. Journalism was patiently handled inside, Barnes was keen to go, and Baeza was racing in the clear from the outside post. Westwood and Citizen Bull continued to mix it up with five furlongs to go, and Baeza made a wide move and joined the chase. Citizen Bull was clear after six furlongs and Baeza worked his way up to second. Westwood was third, Barnes was next, and Journalism saved ground in last place. Baeza caught Citizen Bull in the stretch and was the new target, and Journalism worked his way off the rail and was on the move, and he lengthened stride, got to the front late, and scored by 3/4ths of a length. Baeza ran his heart out and was 8 1/2 lengths in front of Westwood. Citizen Bull was out of gas and finished a half-length behind the maiden, and it was another 10 lengths back to Barnes. Umberto Rispoli rode Journalism for Michael McCarthy, and he is 4-for-4 around two turns and heads to Louisville as the clear Kentucky Derby favorite. Fractions: 22.25, 47.14, 1:11.42, 1:37.07, 1:49.56.
Grade 2 UAE Derby at Meydan (4-5-25): Admire Daytona, a Japanese-bred son of Drefong, out of a Shackleford mare, made the lead and just held off my top choice Heart of Honor to win by a head and qualify for the Kentucky Derby. He has been confirmed as a Ky Derby starter but runner-up Heart of Honor will not ship to Churchill Downs.
Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct (4-5-25): Rodriguez shipped from the West Coast and he set sail for the early lead from the inside post under Mile Smith. Post time favorite Captain Cook chased from second and got to within a half-length, but that was as close as he would get. Rodriguez put away the favorite and opened up a 4-length lead in the stretch. Grande moved up wide and tried to make a race of it, but Rodriguez had no intention of stopping and won by an easy 3 1/2 lengths. Grande could not overcome his wide journey and settled for the place in a solid effort. Passion Rules ran on for the show and Captain Cook checked in a disappointing fourth. McAfee, Sand Devil, Tiger Twenty Four, Statesman, Omaha Omaha, and My Mitole also ran. Bear Claw Necklace and Hill Road scratched. Bob Baffert saddled the winner and he flattered the form of Derby favorite Journalism. Fractions: 23.31, 47.44, 1:11.25, 1:35.68, 1:48.15.
Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland (4-8-25): East Avenue was intent on the early lead under Luan Machado and he was clear by 2 1/2 lengths after the opening quarter and was 3 lengths clear with five furlongs to go. The lead shrunk to a half-length at the six furlong mark and it looked like East Avenue was in deep water, but he kept on fighting and turned away challenges from Owen Almighty and River Thames, and it looked like he might hang on. Burnham Square was the one horse to fear from off the pace and he was at the back of the pack after four furlongs, and he circled the field and rallied wide in the stretch and got up in the nick of time to win by a nose. East Avenue was game in defeat and River Thames was 3/4ths of a length back in third. Admiral Dennis rallied mildly for fourth and was followed by Render Judgment, Owen Almighty, and Chancer McPatrick. Ian Wilkes saddled the winner. Fractions: 22.95, 46.95, 1:11.96, 1:37.89, 1:51.33.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Race Results
Iroquois (10-5-3-2-1) – Sept. 14 – Winner: Jonathan’s Way ($4.52)
Champagne (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – Winner: Chancer McPatrick ($3.10)
American Pharoah (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – Citizen Bull ($8.60)
Breeders’ Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 5 – East Avenue ($7.56)
Street Sense (10-5-3-2-1) – Oct. 27 – Winner: Sovereignty ($4.86)
BC Juvenile (30-15-9-6-3) – Nov. 1 – Winner: Citizen Bull ($33.80)
Ky Jockey Club (10-5-3-2-1) – Nov. 30 – Winner: First Resort ($14.66)
Remsen (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 7 – Winner: Poster ($11.60)
Springboard Mile (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 13 – Winner: Coal Battle ($15.80)
Los Al Futurity (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 14 – Winner: Journalism ($7.60)
Gun Runner (10-5-3-2-1) – Dec. 21 – Winner: Built ($9.80)
Jerome (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 4 – Winner: Cyclone State ($8.10)
Smarty Jones (10-5-3-2-1) – Jan. 4 – Winner: Coal Battle ($11.00)
Lecomte (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 18 – Winner: Disco Time ($5.80)
Southwest (20-10-6-4-2) – Jan. 25 – Winner: Speed King ($30.60)
Holy Bull (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1 – Winner: Burnham Square ($10.60)
Robert Lewis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1 – Winner: Citizen Bull ($3.80)
Withers (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 1 – Winner: Captain Cook ($4.90)
Sam F. Davis (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 8 – Winner: John Hancock ($7.00)
Risen Star (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 15 – Winner: Magnitude ($88.40)
Sunland Derby (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 16 – Winner: Getaway Car ($4.40)
John Battaglia Memorial (20-10-6-4-2) – Feb. 22 – Winner: California Burrito ($9.42)
Rebel (50-25-15-10-5) – Feb. 23 – Winner: Coal Battle ($25.80)
Fountain of Youth (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1 – Winner: Sovereignty ($8.40)
Gotham (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1 – Winner: Flood Zone ($37.60)
San Felipe (50-25-15-10-5) – March 1 – Winner: Journalism ($8.20)
Tampa Bay Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 8 – Winner: Owen Almighty ($7.80)
Virginia Derby (50-25-15-10-5) – March 15 – Winner: American Promise ($16.80)
Jeff Ruby Steaks (100-50-25-15-10) – March 22 – Winner: Final Gambit ($32.14)
Louisiana Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 22 – Winner: Tiztastic ($17.00)
Arkansas Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 29 – Winner: Sandman ($9.40)
Florida Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – March 29 – Winner: Tappan Street ($6.80)
SA Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5 – Winner: Journalism ($4.00)
UAE Derby (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5 – Winner: Admire Daytona ($22.20)
Wood Memorial (100-50-25-15-10) – April 5 – Winner: Rodriguez ($9.30)
Blue Grass (100-50-25-15-10) – April 8 – Winner: Burnham Square ($10.48)
Upcoming Derby Points Races Races:
Lexington (20-10-6-4-2) – April 12
Top 24 Kentucky Derby 2025 Points Leaders (thru 4-11-25)
European – Middle East – Admire Daytona
Japan – Luxor Cafe
Burnham Square (130 points)
Sandman (129 points)
Journalism (122.5 points)
Rodriguez (121.25 points)
Tiztastic (119 points)
Tappan Street (110 points)
Sovereignty (110 points)
Final Gambit (100 points)
Coal Battle (95 points)
Chunk of Gold (75 points)
Citizen Bull (71.25 points)
East Avenue (60 points)
Publisher (60 points)
American Promise (55 points)
River Thames (50 points)
Flying Mohawk (50 points)
Grande (50 points)
Madaket Road (46 points)
—————
Built (45 Points)
Neoequos (40 points)
Render Judgment (39 points)
Baeza (37.5 points)
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven” Kentucky Derby 2025 Contenders (4-11-25)
1 – Sovereignty (Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini) – Trainer: Bill Mott – Last Ranking (1)
Comments: He is one of the top closers in this class. His last-to-first maiden win in the Grade 3 Street Sense at Churchill Downs last fall was strong, and he beat Tiztastic (LA Derby winner) and Sandman (Arkansas Derby winner) that day. He was not fully cranked in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 1 but won anyway, and he rallied from post 10 and was clearly second best behind Tappan Street in the Florida Derby (G1) on March 29. He breezed a half-mile in 48.40 (3/24) at Payson Park on April 11.
2 – Journalism (Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo) – Trainer: Michael McCarthy – Last Ranking (2)
Comments: He ran his record around two turns to 4-for-4 after overcoming a less than ideal trip to win the Grade 1 SA Derby. He had good trips in the Los Al Futurity (G2) and San Felipe (G2), and it was nice to see him overcome some adversity and inside traffic in the SA Derby. The early Kentucky Derby favorite has tactical speed and a strong finishing kick, and he brings a 4-race win streak to Churchill Downs.
3 – Tappan Street (Into Mischief – Virginia Key, Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Brad Cox – Last Ranking (8)
Comments: The main concern with this one is his lack of seasoning. After winning his extended sprint bow at Gulfstream late last year, he closed, led, and was clearly second best behind Burnham Square (Blue Grass Winner) in the Grade 3 Holy Bull. They skipped the FOY and had a fresh horse for the Florida Derby (G1), and he got the jump on Sovereignty and won by a length and a quarter. He breezed four panels in 48.40 (3/24) at Payson Park on April 11, and he might work one more time in Florida before heading to Kentucky.
4 – Sandman (Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Mark Casse – Last Ranking (5)
Comments: He hit the board in the Street Sense (G3), Southwest (G3), and Rebel (G2), and got a fast pace and the right closing trip when picking up his first stakes win in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on March 29. He arrived at Churchill Downs on April 1 to begin preparations for the Derby.
5 – Burnham Square (Liam’s Map, Linda, by Scat Daddy) – Trainer: Ian Wilkes – Last Ranking (9)
Comments: The Holy Bull (G3) hero was a flat fourth in the Fountain of Youth (G2), and he put that disappointing effort behind him when going last-to-first in the Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 8. He has made nice progress since adding blinkers late last year.
6 – Rodriguez (Authentic – Cayala, by Cherokee Run) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (11)
Comments: This consistent Authentic colt showed flashes of brilliance this year for Bob Baffert. His distant show finish in the San Felipe (G2) was disappointing, and he removed blinkers, shipped to New York, made the lead from the inside post, and was strong throughout in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 5. He made the lead in both wins this year and Mike Smith figures to get aggressive early on the first Saturday in May.
7 – Coal Battle (Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman) – Trainer: Lonnie Briley – Last Ranking (7)
Comments: You just cannot knock this overachiever. He rattled off wins in the Jean Lafitte, Springboard Mile, Smarty Jones, and Rebel (G2), and was best of the rest in third in the Arkansas Derby (G1). The versatile colt breezed a half-mile at Churchill Downs in 48.40 (30/57) on April 8.
8 – Tiztastic (Tiz the Law – Keesha, by Tapit) – Trainer: Steve Asmussen – Last Ranking (13)
Comments: After winning the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile on turf last September, he picked up minor awards in the Street Sense (G3), Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), and Southwest (G3). He stubbed his toe in the Rebel (G2), and bounced back with an upset win in the LA Derby (G2). He breezed 5f in 1:00.80 (12/31) at Churchill Downs on April 12. He worked in company with stablemate and fellow Derby hopeful Publisher, and the fractions were 24.80 and 36.60, and they galloped out 6f in 1:13.40 and 7f in 1:26.60. Speaking of maiden Publisher, Irad Ortiz, Jr. will ride him at Churchill.
9 – Grande (Curlin – Journey Home, by War Front) – Trainer: Todd Pletcher – Last Ranking (19)
Comments: He did not race as a juvenile for Todd Pletcher. After winning his first two starts at Gulfstream Park on Jan 11 (8f) and Feb. 27 (9f), he shipped to New York and raced wide and was second best in the Wood Memorial (G2). I like him going forward but am not sure about him in the Derby with no stakes wins and just three starts under his belt. John Velazquez is his Derby pilot.
10 – East Avenue (Medaglia d’Oro – Dance Music, by Ghostzapper) – Trainer: Brendan Walsh – Last Ranking (unranked)
Comments: He is back on the list after just missing in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland on April 8. That was his best effort since wiring the field in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) last fall. The main issue for the Derby is his running style. He needs the early lead, and you could say the same thing about Citizen Bull and Rodriguez.
11 – Citizen Bull (Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor) – Trainer: Bob Baffert – Last Ranking (3)
Comments: Hand him an easy early lead and he will make you pay, and that is exactly what happened in the American Pharoah (G1), BC Juvenile (G1), and Robert Lewis (G3). He chased maiden Westwood, led, and came up empty in the stretch in a very disappointing effort in the SA Derby (G1) on April 5. It is not good that he passed Westwood and that one ended up third in the SA Derby. He was one of the top Derby hopefuls prior to his dud at Santa Anita, and now he heads to Churchill as a longshot pace factor.
Next Nine: (12) Chunk of Gold, (13) Final Gambit, (14) River Thames, (15) Publisher, (16) Madaket Road, (17) American Promise, (18) Flying Mohawk, (19) Luxor Cafe, (20) Admire Daytona
